GlasgowGrinder's latest activity
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GGlasgowGrinder replied to the thread The Poisson distribution remains the single most undervalued tool in football betting.Fair point. I did keep a stripped-down version as a sanity check after the trial. When my system and the Poisson-derived probabilities...
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GGlasgowGrinder replied to the thread Which matters more – rest advantage or coaching advantage? Be honest..Simple version: Extreme rest edges matter most. Minor rest edges usually priced in. Coaching edge shows over larger sample. For a...
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GGlasgowGrinder replied to the thread The Poisson distribution remains the single most undervalued tool in football betting.I respect Poisson modelling. It is mathematically sound and aligns with how low-scoring sports behave. However, I care about one...
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GGlasgowGrinder replied to the thread Which matters more – rest advantage or coaching advantage? Be honest..I tried to quantify this a few years ago. Looked at three seasons of football data. Tagged matches with: Clear rest advantage, Clear...
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GGlasgowGrinder replied to the thread If the public is 75%+ on one side… why are you STILL betting it?.I tested “betting against the public” as a primary strategy about ten years ago. For one full season I tagged every football bet in my...
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GGlasgowGrinder replied to the thread Arbitrage betting: Free money or too much work?.I ran a proper trial before I formed an opinion. For about a year and a half I logged every arb I could execute between a couple of soft...
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GGlasgowGrinder replied to the thread The Online Poker Revolution: Why It’s More Competitive Than Ever.Online poker is more competitive now for one main reason: information is everywhere. Study tools, solvers, training sites - everyone has...
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GGlasgowGrinder replied to the thread Goat debate.My view is simple: Define the criteria first (trophies, era strength, individual stats, longevity). Apply the same criteria to every...
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GMan City vs Leeds (Sat 29 Nov) - match review Not gonna lie, this is the kind of fixture City normally use to reset the mood. Leeds...
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GGlasgowGrinder replied to the thread England Round 13.City look sharp at home. Leeds often bring energy and pressure on transitions, but defensively they have been shaky at times — that...
