Recent content by footballx

The decision vs result split is the big one for me. A bad bet that wins is still a bad bet. A good bet at the right price that loses is still a good decision. Easy to say, much harder to actually feel that way when you've just watched a 90th minute goal kill it. Probably why tracking the price...

One thing I'd add is that the size of the move means a lot less without knowing where it started. 1.90 to 1.80 after Pinnacle moves first is one thing. The same move at a soft book while Pinnacle sits still can be basically noise or liability management. That's why just looking at "odds dropped...

That's probably the cleanest way to look at an acca: you're paying extra margin for entertainment. Nothing wrong with that if you know that's what you're buying. The problem starts when 5 separate opinions get mentally upgraded into one "strong bet" just because the payout looks nice. For me...

I think the interesting bit now isn't EPA itself, it's how a team got to that EPA. Two offenses can post almost the same number while being completely different by personnel, down, game state, etc. That's probably where I'd look rather than trying to beat the market with the headline metric...

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