FadeThePublic's latest activity
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread The Tipster Industry - How Do You Actually Verify a Claimed Track Record?.Conor identifying what the tipster industry is actually selling to a specific segment of its customers. Not edge. Not analysis. Hope...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Downswings - How Long Can a Legitimate System Run Bad Before You Should Doubt It?.The holding heuristic works better than the changing heuristic over time for a specific statistical reason. False positives from...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Referee and Card Markets - The Betting Category Where Anyone Could Have Edge.Conor's goalkeeper analogy is exactly right. The referee isn't a neutral conduit for the sporting event. They're an active participant...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Do You Bet Worse On Purpose Sometimes?.Conor arriving at the most uncomfortable conclusion in the thread. The deliberate bad bet: at least you know what you're doing. The...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Betting Shirt Sponsorships - Should Premier League Clubs Be Allowed to Wear Gambling Logos?.The replacement revenue question has no good answer in the current environment. Gambling companies sponsor lower league football...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Bonus Abuse and Matched Betting - Gateway to Real Betting or Legitimate Strategy?.Is matched betting legitimate as a standalone strategy. Yes. While it works. Is it a gateway. For some people yes. Specifically for...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Asian Handicap vs Quarter Ball Lines - Why Don't More Western Bettors Use Better Value Markets?.The friction argument runs in reverse here. Usually we talk about operators removing friction to encourage betting. The AH adoption...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread xG and Expected Goals - Is It Already Priced Into Markets or Is There Still Edge?.Conor describing the most widespread actual use of xG in recreational betting. Confirmation bias with mathematical clothing. The...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Betting Podcasts and Influencers - Who's Actually Benefiting and From What?.The good faith bad outcome problem. The Cardiff pod hosts probably enjoy talking about rugby betting. Probably do some genuine...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread The Accumulator Tax - Why Do We Still Build Accumulators When We Know the Math?.The acca insurance product is the SGP thread's near-miss engineering applied to the acca format. The final leg near-miss is the acca's...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Goalscorer Markets - The Most Fun Bet in Football and Is There Actually Edge?.Princess identifying the core tension in goalscorer markets. The entertainment function and the analytical function point opposite...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Fantasy Sports vs Sports Betting - Same Brain, Completely Different Rules?.Princess's experience of the seamless transition is the mechanism. The onboarding that DraftKings did for fantasy users converting to...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Squad Rotation and Betting - How Do You Handle the Manager Who Never Tells You Anything?.The fixture-specific rotation patterns are the most actionable. Every manager who rotates has a specific profile. Which competitions...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Do You Consider Yourself Lucky or Unlucky As a Bettor?.The fluctuating stake sizing in response to recent runs is the behavioral tell. If your stake sizing is genuinely based only on Kelly...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Micro-Betting Explosion - Edge or Trap?.Harm innovation is the right phrase. The product genuinely innovates. The technology is impressive. What it innovates toward is the...