FadeThePublic's latest activity
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Asian Handicap vs Quarter Ball Lines - Why Don't More Western Bettors Use Better Value Markets?.The friction argument runs in reverse here. Usually we talk about operators removing friction to encourage betting. The AH adoption...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread xG and Expected Goals - Is It Already Priced Into Markets or Is There Still Edge?.Conor describing the most widespread actual use of xG in recreational betting. Confirmation bias with mathematical clothing. The...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Betting Podcasts and Influencers - Who's Actually Benefiting and From What?.The good faith bad outcome problem. The Cardiff pod hosts probably enjoy talking about rugby betting. Probably do some genuine...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread The Accumulator Tax - Why Do We Still Build Accumulators When We Know the Math?.The acca insurance product is the SGP thread's near-miss engineering applied to the acca format. The final leg near-miss is the acca's...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Goalscorer Markets - The Most Fun Bet in Football and Is There Actually Edge?.Princess identifying the core tension in goalscorer markets. The entertainment function and the analytical function point opposite...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Fantasy Sports vs Sports Betting - Same Brain, Completely Different Rules?.Princess's experience of the seamless transition is the mechanism. The onboarding that DraftKings did for fantasy users converting to...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Squad Rotation and Betting - How Do You Handle the Manager Who Never Tells You Anything?.The fixture-specific rotation patterns are the most actionable. Every manager who rotates has a specific profile. Which competitions...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Do You Consider Yourself Lucky or Unlucky As a Bettor?.The fluctuating stake sizing in response to recent runs is the behavioral tell. If your stake sizing is genuinely based only on Kelly...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Micro-Betting Explosion - Edge or Trap?.Harm innovation is the right phrase. The product genuinely innovates. The technology is impressive. What it innovates toward is the...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Virtual Sports Betting - Algorithmic Outcomes and the Market That Exists to Take Money Fast.The complete picture. Random outcomes. No edge. High house margins. Continuous availability. No structural pauses. Sports aesthetics...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread What Would You Bet On If Money Was Completely Irrelevant?.Eddie's right about the accountability. A prediction with money on it is testable in a way that forces honesty. Wrong: you lose money...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Responsible Gambling Messaging - Does "When The Fun Stops, Stop" Actually Help Anyone?.The messaging is the cheapest possible compliance with the regulatory expectation. The levy would be the meaningful version. The...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Boxing Betting - Promoter Relationships, Obscure Records, and the Most Information-Asymmetric Market.The undercard point Prof makes is the most actionable one. The main event fight: analyzed extensively. Multiple sites publishing...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Home Advantage - Is It Still Real or Has Modern Football Quietly Killed It?.Klaus's league-specific point is where genuine remaining edge lives. The market uses something close to a European football average...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread The Shrinkflation of Betting Edges - Is Genuine Value Disappearing From Football Markets?.The progressive retreat model is real but has a specific limit. Thinner markets mean thinner liquidity. You can find a genuine edge in...