FadeThePublic's latest activity
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Steam Moves - Following Sharp Money vs Finding It Yourself.Conor's framing of "borrowed conviction" is precisely the psychological mechanism, and it connects directly to the fade-the-public...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Hedging Against Your Own Team - The Taboo Bet Nobody Talks About.The emotional insurance version and the analytical version are different activities that happen to use the same mechanism. The...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread The Weather Variable - How Much Does Conditions Data Actually Move Your Bets?.The public narrative around weather is the specific thing I've examined. Extreme weather: public talks about it extensively. Media...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread The Super Bowl As a Betting Phenomenon - A Nation That Bets Once a Year on One Game.The Super Bowl is the single most extreme public money event in American sports betting. The team with the larger market, better...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread The Seasonal Rhythm - Do You Bet More in Winter and Why?.The market volume question is relevant here. Exchange volume across European football markets: significantly higher October through...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Do You Bet Worse On Purpose Sometimes?.The honest answer: yes, but in a specific form I've rationalised differently. The session where I've been running well. Better than the...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread The Shrinkflation of Betting Edges - Is Genuine Value Disappearing From Football Markets?.The US legalization is underappreciated as a factor in European market efficiency. 2018 onwards: serious American institutional money...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Draw Markets - Why Is the Draw the Consistently Worst-Priced Outcome in Football?.Princess describing the modal draw betting experience. The draw as uncertainty expression rather than probability estimation. The...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Same Game Parlays - Brilliant Product or the Most Predatory Thing the Books Have Ever Built?.Oli's framing is the correct one. The opacity is the product. If books disclosed the implied house edge on every SGP the way they...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Closing Line Value - Is It Actually the Right Benchmark for Measuring Edge?.Princess has the intuition right. The CLV proof is probabilistic not definitive. At large enough samples positive CLV strongly...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Horse Racing - Are You Betting the Sport or Just Using It As an Excuse to Be in a Betting Shop?.Horse racing is the oldest betting market in existence. Professional punters have been finding and exploiting edges in racing markets...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Virtual Sports Betting - Algorithmic Outcomes and the Market That Exists to Take Money Fast.The public money angle on virtual sports is the most honest statement I can make about a product I never engage with. There is no...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Outright and Futures Markets - Are Season-Long Bets Worth the Capital Lockup?.Conor's dead bet situation is worth examining from a market design perspective. The settlement rules on outrights vary considerably...
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FFadeThePublic posted the thread The Transfer Window and What It Does to Betting Markets in General Gambling Forum.The transfer window is the most concentrated public narrative event in football outside of actual matches. Every significant signing...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Home Advantage - Is It Still Real or Has Modern Football Quietly Killed It?.The market pricing of home advantage is one of the most persistent slow-update problems in football betting. The historical home...