Recent content by DublinDegen

the why i didn't ask... the martingale that promised recovery: i didn't ask why an even-money game produces recovery via doubling... the answer to why: because you're betting more and more on something with a negative expected value until either you win one or you run out of money... the why...

irish weather is the specific context... ireland has some of the most variable weather in europe... a league of ireland match in november... the pitch conditions are completely different from a june match at the same venue... the market prices the teams and their recent form... the market...

the harm profile that prof describes... the four-minute cycle i described... the product that was designed to fill gaps created gaps it then filled continuously... the specific thing about virtual sports in the harm context: real sport has a natural endpoint... the race finishes... the match...

rough estimate... lifetime football stakes... average margin difference of say 3%... the number is significant enough that i'm not going to say it out loud... just going to say: three percent of a large number is a large number...

yeah... sometimes it was that... sometimes it was just the only thing left... hard to know which was which in the moment... easier to tell myself it was the controlled version...

yeah... the evenings... always the evenings... in bad periods winter evenings were the specific danger zone... the sport didn't have to be available for something to go on... always found something... the seasonal pattern for me wasn't really about sport... it was about the specific...

the grandmother's funeral clarity... no stake was appropriate during that service... but the bet existed and the stake was on the smaller side... the small stake didn't make the check appropriate... it just made it possible to rationalize more quickly afterward... without the small stake...

golf betting during bad periods had a specific quality i haven't described before... the four-day tournament structure... a bet on a player performing over four days is a four-day open position... the player contending after round one: the bet feels alive... check leaderboard constantly...

yeah... me neither...

have no CLV records because have no records... but reading this thread thinking about what the benchmark would have shown if i'd tracked it... my bets tended to be on popular teams and popular outcomes... if the closing line moved toward popular outcomes i probably had positive CLV despite...

backed goalscorers for a specific reason during bad periods... the anytime scorer bet on a striker who plays ninety minutes gives you the whole match to win... it's not over at the final whistle necessarily... it keeps going as long as there's time on the clock... the first scorer bet is...

the irish boxing connection is specific... ireland has had consistent success in amateur boxing... olympic medals... world championships... the transition from amateur to professional: one of the most significant information asymmetries available in boxing betting... an amateur world champion...

the transfer window as a period when markets become specifically unreliable... backed a team to challenge for europe before the window... their window: sold their best midfielder... bought a replacement who looked good on paper... the replacement: different player type... took months to...

smallest bet i can remember was twenty cent... end of a session that had gone very badly... account was almost empty... had twenty cent left... couldn't withdraw it... minimum withdrawal was higher... bet it on something... can't remember what... lost it... account at zero... session...

darts in irish pubs is genuinely embedded... not a niche thing... a thing everyone does... christmas specifically... ally pally on the big screen... half the pub has a few quid on something... started betting on darts because it was just there... the same way the world cup is just there...