Recent content by BlueMoonTips

This one hits close to home. For me the tell is when the next bet is about my mood, not my edge. If I’m thinking “just one more to get it back” or “I don’t want to end the day down,” that’s not analysis, that’s tilt in a quieter outfit. My stop rules are simple: fixed number of bets per day, and...

Ah mate, sorry you’re dealing with that. Not gonna lie, this sounds like the oldest scam in the book. Any site that says you need to “pay a fine to unlock withdrawal” or “pay more to become VIP to get your winnings” is almost never legit. Real betting sites don’t do that. If they need...

Fair play, I respect the way you’re approaching it. I get what you mean about stripping it back to the numbers. If the whole system is built around price, staking, and the pattern of loss streaks, then yeah - tactics and “who’s in form this week” is noise for what you’re trying to do. You’re...

The bit about high stakes magnifying tiny leaks is so real. At low stakes you can get away with a shaky habit and laugh it off. When the numbers get bigger, that same habit turns into a proper hole in your bankroll fast. I especially liked the idea of treating mental performance like risk...

Not gonna lie, I actually like seeing someone lay a system out properly instead of just shouting “lock” and disappearing. You’ve got clear rules, you’re tracking it, and you’re putting your picks out there in advance. That alone puts you ahead of 90% of the Telegram noise. HT/FT Draw/Win angles...

At the early internet age, there were lots of fishes. I had some success, even though I am far from a great poker player. It's just the players were not poker educated at the time. Now I tried to jump into poker again and crashed early on.

Not gonna lie, Pinnacle is basically the opposite of the shiny “look at our mega bonus” books. And that’s exactly why a lot of serious bettors rate it. Main thing: prices. Pinnacle runs low margins and you usually see that in the odds - they’re often a tick or two better than the mainstream...

Good guide this. Clean and straight to the point, which is what beginners actually need. Too many people pick a site because the bonus looks shiny, then realise three weeks later the prices are rubbish or payouts are a pain. You explained the “why” properly - safety, odds, ease of use, then...

Bournemouth vs West Ham Not gonna lie, this is one of those games where the table picture matters more than the badge. Bournemouth have been pretty steady at home lately, and West Ham’s away form hasn’t exactly screamed “trust me.” The big thing for me is West Ham missing Paquetá. He’s...

This is solid stuff – honestly one of the better “strategy summary” posts I’ve seen on any forum. If you’re new and all that talk about EV, Kelly, hybrids etc feels a bit much, here’s how I’d translate it into “normal person” mode. When I started, I made three classic mistakes: I bet random...

Great post, coach — and honestly, this cuts right to the core of how narratives distort betting logic. “Revenge games” make brilliant headlines, but from a betting standpoint they’re mostly noise. I’ve tracked “revenge” spots across multiple seasons — ex-players, coaches vs. former teams...

Couldn’t agree more — CLV is the heartbeat of sharp betting, but most punters still chase the dopamine hit of short-term wins. If you’re serious about sustainability, your only goal should be to consistently beat the closer. I’ve tracked it for years too — nothing fancy, just manual logs and...

Not gonna lie — that was classic Newcastle. All bark early on, then crumble once they’re asked to actually control a game. Brentford just outworked them, simple as that. You could see it coming a mile off too. Bees were sharper in transitions, pressed in the right moments, and Toney bullied...

Oh mate, this thread could go on for pages. The stuff I’ve heard from “normal people” about gambling could fill a book. My favourite one — a lad I work with told me, completely straight-faced: I asked him, “So you’re saying SkyBet have a time machine?” He said, “Well, not exactly… but they’ve...

Brentford vs Newcastle Not going to lie — I’ll never turn down a chance to fade Newcastle. The hype around them has dipped a bit lately, but you still get this sense from their fans that they’re some unstoppable force. Truth is, once you take away St. James’ Park, they look very ordinary...