Recent content by Aionora

Hi everyone, I'm behind AIONORA, a sports analytics project I've been building around football, basketball and tennis. I've always been interested in the numbers behind the game, especially probabilities, how models perform over time, and what they sometimes get wrong. It's still early days...

Interesting point about your 80% predictions performing much like your 60s. I wonder how much of that comes down to sample size, and how much is genuine overconfidence in the estimates. Have you looked at the number of predictions in each range? I'd be curious to see whether the pattern holds...

Interesting approach! I like how you've separated the statistical model from the AI side of things. Just curious, have you been tracking how accurate the model actually is over time? And have you noticed any real improvement from adding the AI layer compared to the original Poisson/Elo model...