Why the Public Always Overbets Favorites

[FadeThePublic]

Here's a fact that will never change: the public loves betting favorites.

I pulled data from Action Network for the last NFL season. Games where the favorite got 70%+ of public tickets? The underdog covered 58.7% of the time. That's a massive edge.

Why does this keep happening? Because casual bettors think betting favorites is "safer." They'd rather risk $150 to win $100 on what feels like a sure thing than take +140 on a "bad team." It's backwards thinking and it's been consistent for decades.

The books know this. They shade lines toward favorites because they know the public will eat it up. Meanwhile, sharp money quietly takes the dog, waits for the line to move even further, then loads up more.

If you're still betting favorites at -150 or worse, you're literally funding my bankroll. So thanks for that.

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

Okay but like... what if the favorite is actually better though?

I bet on the Chiefs pretty much every week and they WIN. Yeah sometimes I'm laying -200 or whatever but they're literally the best team in the league. Why would I bet on some terrible team just because they're getting points?

Like last week everyone was on the Jaguars +7.5 because "public overbetting the favorite" and the Chiefs won by 21. So the public was actually RIGHT.

I feel like you contrarian people just assume the favorite is always overpriced but sometimes teams are favorites for a reason lol. Not everyone who bets favorites is a "casual bettor" who doesn't know what they're doing.