The Worst Betting Advice You've Ever Received

[CoachTony_Bets]

Was having drinks with some coaching buddies last night and we got talking about the dumbest betting advice we've received over the years. Some of it was hilarious in hindsight, some of it was expensive to learn.

Figured this would be a fun thread - what's the worst betting advice someone has given you? Either advice you actually followed and regretted, or advice that was so bad you knew to ignore it immediately.

I'll start:

"Always bet the home underdog in divisional rivalry games. The home team plays harder and the line overreacts to the favorite."

Heard this from an "old school bettor" when I first started. Sounded logical - rivalries are emotional, home field matters, etc.

Lost about $800 following this "system" over half a season before I actually tracked the results. Turns out divisional home underdogs go roughly 48-52% ATS. It's basically random, and I was cherry-picking my memory of the times it worked.

The advice wasn't even wrong in theory (rivalry games can be unpredictable), but turning it into an absolute rule was the problem.
What terrible advice have you guys heard?

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

Oh god I have so many

"If you lose a bet, immediately double down on the next game to win it back."

My coworker told me this when I first started betting. Said it was "basic math" and that you always eventually win.
I tried it for like two days and lost $400 before my friend told me I was basically doing Martingale and it was a terrible idea lol.

But the WORST advice I ever got was:

"Always take the over in primetime games because both teams want to put on a show for national TV."

I actually believed this!! Took the over in like 15 Thursday/Sunday/Monday night games in a row. Hit maybe 6 of them. Lost so much money.
Turns out primetime games don't have higher scoring than other games, I was just being an idiot

 

[SharpEddie47]

This thread is going to be therapeutic for a lot of people I think.
Mine: "Don't track your bets because knowing you're losing will make you bet scared."

Heard this from a guy at a bar who claimed to be a "professional bettor." His logic was that tracking losses makes you emotional and clouds your judgment. This is catastrophically bad advice. Not tracking your bets means:

• You don't know if you have an edge
• You can't identify which bet types you're good/bad at
• You lie to yourself about being profitable
• You have no data to improve your process

I followed this advice for exactly one month when I was starting out. Lost about $1,200 and had no idea where it went or what went wrong because I had no records. Now I track everything obsessively. Date, sport, bet type, odds, stake, result, emotional state, and notes. That data has made me profitable. Not tracking your bets is like trying to lose weight without ever stepping on a scale. You're just guessing and hoping. The guy who gave me this advice? Saw him three months later. He'd quit betting because he "couldn't figure out why he was always losing." Gee, wonder why.

Trust the process, not your gut.

 

[FadeThePublic]

Eddie's is brutal because it's the kind of advice that sounds reasonable if you don't think about it.
Mine is simpler:

"Follow [insert Twitter capper name]. He's 78-32 this season."

Multiple people told me to follow various Twitter cappers when I started. Showed me their impressive win-loss records.

What I didn't know then:

• They delete losing picks
• They count pushes as wins
• They post 10 picks and only advertise the 3 that hit
• The "record" starts from a convenient point in the season
• They cherry-pick bet types (only count spread bets, ignore props they lost)

I paid $50 for a month of "premium picks" from one of these clowns. His real record that month (that I tracked independently): 14-18-2. Lost me about $300.

If someone's selling picks, they're making money from selling picks, not from betting. If they could actually win betting, they wouldn't need your $50/month.

The only thing worse than following a bad capper is PAYING to follow a bad capper.

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

Eddie's is brutal because it's the kind of advice that sounds reasonable if you don't think about it.
Mine is simpler:

"Follow [insert Twitter capper name]. He's 78-32 this season."

Multiple people told me to follow various Twitter cappers when I started. Showed me their impressive win-loss records.

What I didn't know then:

• They delete losing picks
• They count pushes as wins
• They post 10 picks and only advertise the 3 that hit
• The "record" starts from a convenient point in the season
• They cherry-pick bet types (only count spread bets, ignore props they lost)

I paid $50 for a month of "premium picks" from one of these clowns. His real record that month (that I tracked independently): 14-18-2. Lost me about $300.

If someone's selling picks, they're making money from selling picks, not from betting. If they could actually win betting, they wouldn't need your $50/month.

The only thing worse than following a bad capper is PAYING to follow a bad capper.

Fade the Twitter capper thing is so common. I fell for it too early on. The "verified record" is always bullshit. They'll go 5-1 one week and tweet about being "on fire," then go 2-8 the next week and just stop posting for a while.

Another one I heard:
"Bet with your heart, not your head. The games are unpredictable anyway so might as well have fun with it."

This was from a casual bettor friend who insisted betting should be "entertainment" and analyzing games was "taking it too seriously."

Look, I get the entertainment angle for recreational betting. But if you're betting with your heart instead of your head, you're just donating money to the sportsbook.

Your heart says bet on your favorite team every week. Your head says that's a terrible idea because you're emotionally compromised. I lost a lot on Cowboys games (my team) before I learned this lesson.