Guide The Death of the Wong Teaser? Analyzing 2025 NFL Key Numbers

[Betting Forum]

The first thing every bettor learns when they decide to stop being a "square" is the Wong Teaser. It's almost a rite of passage. You read a forum post from 2011, you learn about crossing the key numbers of 3 and 7, and you think you've found the infinite money glitch.

This article is for anyone who is currently teasing a -7.5 favorite down to -1.5 and wondering why their bankroll is slowly bleeding out.

Here is the hard truth. The strategy isn't dead. The math behind it is still sound because football scoring is still (mostly) stuck in multiples of 3 and 7. What's dead is the price you are paying to play it.

You are trying to run a strategy from 2005 using 2026 pricing. It doesn't work. It's like trying to buy a house in Manchester with a budget from twenty years ago. The house is still there, but you can't afford the front door.

The Math That Kills You​

The logic of a Wong Teaser is simple. You take a 6-point teaser. You move a Favorite from -7.5/-8.5 down to -1.5/-2.5. You move an Underdog from +1.5/+2.5 up to +7.5/+8.5. You capture the 3 and the 7.

Simple.

But Stanford Wong wrote his book when teasers were priced at -110 (or even +100 if you go back far enough). At -110, you need each leg to hit roughly 72.4% of the time to break even. Wong legs historically hit around 75-76%. That's your edge.

In 2025, most regulated US books - the ones spending millions on TV ads - charge -130 or even -135 for a standard two-team 6-point teaser.

At -130, your break-even percentage jumps to nearly 75.2%. Your edge is gone. You are flipping coins and paying a premium for the privilege. I see guys on the forum posting their "locks" every week, playing these at -130, and then acting surprised when they break even after 50 bets. That's not bad luck. That's just math punishing you for ignoring the price tag.

Steve Fezzik breaks this down perfectly in this clip from VSiN. He explains exactly why the shift from -110 to -120/-130 pricing has fundamentally altered the math, and why you have to be disciplined about the price you pay.

The "New" Key Numbers (And Why They Don't Save You)​

People keep asking if the new kickoff rules or the rise in 2-point conversions have killed the key numbers.

Yes and no.

The 3 and 7 are still kings. They account for nearly 25-30% of all margins of victory combined. That hasn't changed enough to matter yet. But we are seeing more "weird" numbers - 5s, 6s, 8s - creeping in because coaches are more aggressive.

That actually makes the Wong Teaser weaker. If games land on 8 more often (because of a touchdown + 2-point conversion), teasing a +2.5 underdog to +8.5 is still safe, but teasing a -8.5 favorite down to -2.5 gets sketchier if the favorite wins by exactly 8.

But honestly? That's overthinking it. The issue isn't the kickoff rule. It's the juice.

Escaping the "Tax" - Where to Actually Bet These​

If you want to play Wong Teasers in 2025/26, you have to be price sensitive. You cannot blindly fire them at DraftKings or FanDuel. Their pricing models are designed to crush this specific strategy. They know you want to cross 3 and 7, so they make you pay for it.

The only way to make this viable is to find books that still respect the old pricing models or offer reduced juice.

This is where the offshore market is still superior for the mathematical bettor. Heritage sportsbooks like Bookmaker.eu, Bovada, Everygame, and BetOnline often have teaser pricing that is significantly fairer than the regulated apps. We are talking -120 or sometimes -110 on special promotions.

The difference between laying -130 and -110 doesn't sound like much. It is. Over a season of 100 bets, it is the difference between profit and a slow, painful loss.

If you are betting at a book that charges -130 for a 6-point teaser, just stop. Play the moneyline instead. Or don't bet.

When to Actually Pull the Trigger​

So, does the Wong Teaser still work?

Yes, if:

You are getting -120 or better (ideally -110).

The Total is low (under 49 points). Lower scoring games make every point more valuable.

You aren't teasing through zero (don't go from -3 to +3, it's a waste of math).

If you can't check those three boxes, you are just donating to the operator's quarterly revenue targets.

Anyway. Stop forcing the strategy just because it has a cool name. Do the math on the price first.

FAQ​

Q1: Can I tease through zero (like taking a -3 favorite to +3)?
No. Never. You are paying for points (1 and 2) that rarely decide games. It is the quickest way to spot a novice bettor. The value is in crossing 3 and 7, not hovering around a tie.

Q2: Does this strategy work for College Football?
Generally, no. The variance in college is way higher, and the key numbers (3 and 7) don't hit with the same frequency as the NFL. The edges are thinner and often nonexistent because scoring is more chaotic.

Q3: What if my book offers -120 but only for 6.5 or 7 point teasers?
Do the math. Usually, the extra half point isn't worth the extra juice or losing the "push" protection on the key numbers. Stick to the standard 6-point teaser at -120 or better. If you can't find it, don't bet it.