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Italy Round 6

rateandbet

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Italy Round 6.webp


 
Crotone v Atalanta

Prediction: Atalanta (-1)

H2H:
- Atalanta has won 3 out of the 4 games played since 2016, 2 of them by a margin of 2 or more goals.

Atalanta

- Atalanta is still trying to replicate their last season's impressive form, and despite having 2 losses in their last 2 games for the league, they managed to win the first 3 games;
- Atalanta, which has shown last season creative and powerful attacking football, will get to this game as the second-best attack in the league with 15 goals in 5 games, an average of exactly 3 goals per game;
- This season they have 10.71 xG in Serie A, an average of 2.14 xG per game;
- Nevertheless, when we look to GA and xGA one can notice that they have been "unlucky" with 12 GA and only 6.90 xGA, showing that their defensive performance has not been as poor as it might look at first sight - and we can expect the coach to strengthen this issue;
- The 3 victories (two against strong opponents such as Lazio and Cagliari) were all by a margin of 2 or more goals;
- Ilicic is being brought back to the team and his influence has been increasing.

Crotone
- Crotone has had a very poor start to the Serie A, only managing to get 1 point in 5 games (even though it was a draw against Juventus);
- In their 4 losses they always conceded a minimum of 2 goals and lost by at least a margin of 2 goals;
- It is currently the team that has conceded the most goals in Serie A (15), having a total of 10.19 xGA;

This is a game that I can see Atalanta winning comfortably and getting back to victories in Serie A, and it is expected to score a lot of goals.

Neil M of Betmarkets also took this bet @1.67

I will probably be posting more bets for this round soon :)
 
Inter v Parma
Prediction: Parma Over 0.5

H2H:
- Parma has been able to score at least 1 goal in 3 out of their 4 last games against each other.

Inter
- Inter has conceded goals in 4 out of their 5 games in Serie A - they did not concede only against Genoa, the team with the worst xG record in the league;
- Inter has conceded 8 goals in their 5 games in the league, and currently have a total of 6.79 xGA;
- Skriniar and Vecino are not avaible for this match.

Parma
- Parma has managed to score in 4 out of their 5 Serie A games;
- The team has 6 goals scored in their 5 games (average of more than 1 goal per game), while having 7.28 xG, which means that they have been creating opportunities to score more than they actually managed to score

The current odds seem too high - a good opportunity for a value bet.

Neil M of Betmarkets also took this bet @1.65
 
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