England Round 12

[spkutano]

 

[BlueMoonTips]

Bournemouth vs West Ham​

Not gonna lie, this is one of those games where the table picture matters more than the badge. Bournemouth have been pretty steady at home lately, and West Ham’s away form hasn’t exactly screamed “trust me.”


The big thing for me is West Ham missing Paquetá. He’s basically their connector when they do anything good, and without him I don’t trust their chance creation to be consistent. That’s a real downgrade.
Head-to-head between these two has been draw-heavy and usually not a total goal-fest. So I’m not expecting some 4–3 chaos unless someone gifts an early goal or there’s a red card.

How I see it:

• Bournemouth at Vitality will press and get territory.
• West Ham will try to keep it tight and nick something on set pieces or transitions.
• Without Paquetá, I don’t trust them to sustain attacks.

Pick: Bournemouth draw no bet / Bournemouth slight edge.

If West Ham do score, I still think Bournemouth avoid defeat. Feels like a grafty home win or another draw, but Bournemouth side is the one I’d rather be on.

 

[spkutano]

Burnley vs Chelsea Preview:

Possible starting lineups:

Burnley:
Dubravka; Walker, Tuanzebe, Esteve, Hartman; Florentino, Cullen; Bruun Larsen, Ugochukwu, Anthony; Flemming

Chelsea:
Sanchez; Gusto, Chalobah, Fofana, Cucurella; James, Caicedo; Estevao, Pedro, Garnacho; Delap

Burnley will welcome Chelsea to Turf Moor on Saturday lunchtime. The Clarets will enter the game on a dampening two-match losing run, whereas the Blues are looking a third straight top-flight success in Lancashire. Burnley are newcomers in the Premier League and avoiding the relegation is their main objective. Currently they are outside the drop zone, but only thanks to the goal-difference, as 18th-placed West Ham also have 10 points. As I wrote above, Burnley are in mini series of two defeats in the Premier League. The defeat to leaders Arsenal could somehow be swallowed, but the narrow 3:2 defeat to West Ham is very painful. Manager Scott Parker is well aware about the problem - defense. Burnley have conceded 22 goals which is the third-worst record in the top flight division - only Wolverhampton Wanderers (25) and West Ham United (23) have shipped more goals. Parker has the majority of his players available for this game, but ex-Blues striker Armando Broja has suffered an ankle injury in Albania's 2:0 defeat to England. Broja will join the long-term victims Jordan Beyer, Zeki Amdouni and Connor Roberts.

Chelsea are third with 20 points and they look very good at the moment. The Blues have four victories In the last five matches in the Premier League. They beat the reigning champions Liverpool at Stamford Bridge with a stoppage time goal. Chelsea also beat Nottingham Forest, Tottenham and Wolverhampton Wanderers. Too bad they lost to Sunderland at Stamford Bridge. However, the atmosphere in the squad is positive, while the players confidence is high. In the meantime, Chelsea lost 3:1 to Bayern Munich in the Champions League, but then managed to beat Benfica and Ajax, before sharing the points with Azerbaijani outfit Qarabag. Maresca now has to prove the inconsistency is no more a Chelsea trademark. But he has big injury worries ahead of this match. Jamie Bynoe-Gittens took a knock on England U-21duty, but the attacker is rated as doubtful. Three more players - Enzo Fernandez, Pedro Neto and Benoit Badiashile - are also questionable. Finally, Dario Essugo, Cole Palmer, Levi Colwill, Romeo Lavia and Mykhaylo Mudryk (doping ban) are definitely sidelined.

Burnley vs Chelsea Prediction:

Chelsea are big favorites in this derby, mostly due to current form. While Burnley are in series of two defeats, Chelsea managed to beat Tottenham and Wolverhampton. The players confidence is on Chelsea side, but the quality is on their side too. Burnley have the home advantage, but it seems that's not a problem for the Blues. The Clarets have been defeated in each of their last five Premier League home matches against Chelsea. Furthermore, all of those losses were high: 4:1 in October 2023, 4:0 in March 2022, 3:0 in October 2020, 4:2 in October 2019, 4:0 in October 2018 etc. I expect another high victory. Finally, one player could write a history in this match. Alejandro Garnacho could become the youngest South American player to make 100 appearances in the Premier League at 21 years old - overtaking a 22-year-old Gabriel Martinelli. It is clear Garnacho will be extra motivated. He registered two assists against the Wolves and I expect another goal involvement here.

Burnley vs Chelsea Pick: Chelsea -1.5 AH @ 2.45 with Pinnacle

 

[spkutano]

Bournemouth vs West Ham​

Not gonna lie, this is one of those games where the table picture matters more than the badge. Bournemouth have been pretty steady at home lately, and West Ham’s away form hasn’t exactly screamed “trust me.”


The big thing for me is West Ham missing Paquetá. He’s basically their connector when they do anything good, and without him I don’t trust their chance creation to be consistent. That’s a real downgrade.
Head-to-head between these two has been draw-heavy and usually not a total goal-fest. So I’m not expecting some 4–3 chaos unless someone gifts an early goal or there’s a red card.

How I see it:

• Bournemouth at Vitality will press and get territory.
• West Ham will try to keep it tight and nick something on set pieces or transitions.
• Without Paquetá, I don’t trust them to sustain attacks.

Pick: Bournemouth draw no bet / Bournemouth slight edge.

If West Ham do score, I still think Bournemouth avoid defeat. Feels like a grafty home win or another draw, but Bournemouth side is the one I’d rather be on.

Very good pick, West Ham will struggle without Paqueta, particularly there is no more Kudus.

 

[spkutano]

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest Preview:

Possible starting lineups:

Liverpool:
Alisson; Bradley, Konate, Van Dijk, Robertson; Mac Allister, Gravenberch; Salah, Szoboszlai, Wirtz; Isak

Nottingham Forest:
Sels; Savona, Murillo, Milenkovic, Williams; Sangare, Anderson; Ndoye, Gibbs-White, Hutchinson; Awoniyi

Liverpool will try to leave the bad period behind when they host Nottingham Forest at Anfield on Saturday afternoon. The Reds have started the new season in fantastic way, with five victories in the first five rounds. But then unthinkable happened, Liverpool suffered five defeats in the next six rounds and now sit 8th on the table, big eight points behind the current leaders Arsenal. Manager Arne Slot is under big pressure, though his position is strong following the last season's success. The key players are also feeling the pressure and there is a nervous. Captain Van Dijk and Salah are nowhere near the players from the last term, while the newcomers aren't at desired level, like Isak, Wirtz, Frimpong and Kerkez. The only exception is Ekitike, but he can't alone. The players confidence is lost which additionally complicate the matters. There are some positive news as goalkeeper Alisson Becker has recovered from a hamstring injury and should start here. Alexandar Isak is also ready, meaning Jeremie Frimpong and Giovanni Leoni are the Reds' only two absentees.

Nottingham Forest were excellent in the last season. They were fighting for a Champions League spot until the last round, but finished sixth. One man was deserved for the campaign, manager Nuno Espirito Santo. But owner Evangelos Marinakis sacked Nuno in September and installed ex-Tottenham boss Ange Postecoglou as new coach. Soon after he was sack too, while the former Burnley manager Sean Dyche took the job. Nottingham are currently second from the bottom, though they have one win and one draw on the last two matches. According to me, some progress is visible. Dyche has big injury issues ahead of the trip to Anfield. Ola Aina, Douglas Luiz and Angus Gunn are definitely absent, while four more are rated as doubtful - Chris Wood, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Dilane Bakwa and Callum Hudson-Odoi. The potential absence of Wood is a big handicap, but Igor Jesus, Arnaud Kalimuendo and Taiwo Awoniyi are all able to replace the New Zealander. And don't forget Gibbs-White, who netted on the last two matches and now look to score in three consecutive Premier League games for the first time in his career.

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest Prediction:

I expect at least three goals at Anfield. Liverpool are in "Must win" situation, they will strongly attack from the very first whistle. But that will leave space for Nottingham's fast counterattacks. Sean Dyche is an experienced tactician, he will definitely find a way to upset the Reds. According to some pundits, he is a defensive oriented coach, but there are some different facts. Nottingham are averaging more shots (13) and Expected Goals (1.6) per game under Dyche than they managed under either Ange Postecoglou or Nuno Espirito Santo this season. The Tricky Trees beat 3:1 Leeds and played a 2:2 draw with Manchester United in the last two rounds of the Premier League. As You could see, Forest have scored five goals on the last two matches. I expect an efficient match at Anfield.

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest Pick: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.53 with Pinnacle

 

[spkutano]

Arsenal vs Tottenham Preview:

Possible starting lineups:

Arsenal:
Raya; Timber, Saliba, Mosquera, Hincapie; Eze, Zubimendi, Rice; Saka, Merino, Trossard

Tottenham:
Vicario; Porro, Romero, Van de Ven, Spence; Palhinha, Sarr; Kudus, Simons, Odobert; Richarlison

The leaders Arsenal will welcome their biggest rivals Tottenham to the Emirates Stadium on Sunday in yet another North London derby. Fans of both clubs consider the other to be their main rivals, and the derby is one of the most watched derbies in Europe. Although the two teams first played each other in 1887, the rivalry did not begin until 1913 when Arsenal moved their ground to North London from Woolwich, south of the River Thames. As of 15 January 2025, 197 games have been played between the two teams since their first game in the Football League in 1909, with 84 wins for Arsenal, 62 wins for Tottenham and 52 games drawn.

There is something exclusive for the fans of these two clubs. Arsenal fans have a celebration day related to the north London rivalry called St. Totteringham's Day, which is the day in the season when Tottenham cannot mathematically finish above Arsenal on the league table. Tottenham fans had long before declared 14 April to be St. Hotspur day in honour of Tottenham's 3:1 win over Arsenal in the 1991 FA Cup semi-final. St. Hotspur Day was also celebrated on 14 April 2010, when Tottenham beat Arsenal 2:1 thanks to goals scored by Rose and Bale.

Arsenal are the leaders in the Premier League and main candidates for the title. They have 26 points, four more than second-placed Manchester City. Their manager Mikel Arteta could be satisfied with the results. According to me, the Gunners are the most consistent side in the Premier League. They are also successful in the Champions League, so the players confidence is very high. But there is a problem - key defender Gabriel Magalhaes suffered a hamstring issue while playing for Brazil. Riccardo Calafiori, Martin Odegaard, Kai Havertz, Gabriel Martinelli, Viktor Gyokeres, Noni Madueke and Gabriel Jesus are also injured.

Tottenham had an awful last season and the fans were frustrated. Manager Ange Postecoglou was sacked, even they won UEFA Europe League and secured a Champions League spot. The former Brentford boss Thomas Frank took the job and the Spurs look much better, particularly away from home. Tottenham have a fantastic away record, collecting 13 from the possible 15 points on the road this term. There are good news from the medical department - Pape Sarr, Lucas Bergvall and Randal Kolo Muani are available, as well as Mohammed Kudus, Archie Gray, Kota Takai, Ben Davies and Radu Dragusin. Spurs' only guaranteed absentees are Dominic Solanke, Yves Bissouma, Dejan Kulusevski and James Maddison.

Arsenal vs Tottenham Prediction:

Arsenal are big favorites in North London derby and there are reasons for that - they are first on the table and they look very dominant. Tottenham, meanwhile, need a time for recovery after the poor last season. This will be the first North London derby since 2014 without either Harry Kane or Son Heung-min. The duo have scored 27% of Tottenham's Premier League goals against Arsenal. Their experience was very important, while their absence is a big handicap. However, the Spurs are not some team from the League Two, they are fifth on the table and they are Champions League participants. The odds for Arsenal are too low, simply not realistic. I think Tottenham could cover the handicap, meaning they won't lose high. There are four reasons for my pick:

1. This is North London derby and the players of both teams will give their maximum. That include Tottenham players.

2. Tottenham's away form is excellent. The Spurs have collect 13 from the possible 15 points on the road this season.

3. Arsenal key defender Gabriel Magalhaes is injured.

4. Arsenal showed some defensive issues in the last match against Sunderland when conceded two goals.

Arsenal vs Tottenham Pick: Tottenham +1.5 AH @ 1.69 with Pinnacle