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This guide is for beginners who want to understand how tennis betting actually works - the basic markets, how odds are structured, and what you're actually betting on when you place a tennis wager.
Tennis betting revolves around four main market types. Moneyline bets (who wins the match). Handicap bets (winning margin measured in games or sets). Totals bets (over/under on total games played). Exact score bets (predicting the precise set score). Each market has its own logic and each gets priced differently depending on the matchup.
The thing is, tennis odds react faster than almost any other sport because there's no draw to cushion variance and every point matters. A player can be 80% favorite and lose in three sets. The markets know this. That's why odds move aggressively and why understanding the structure matters before you start betting.
Moneyline Odds in Tennis (Match Winner)
Moneyline is the simplest market. You're betting on who wins the match, regardless of score or how many sets it takes. If your player wins, you win. If they lose or retire, you lose.
Tennis moneylines are usually displayed in decimal format (1.50, 2.80) or American format (-200, +150). Decimal is more common outside the US and easier to calculate. A 1.50 bet means you get back £1.50 for every £1 staked, including your original stake. So a £10 bet at 1.50 returns £15 total (£5 profit).
American odds use positive and negative numbers. -200 means you need to bet £200 to win £100. +150 means a £100 bet wins £150. It's backwards from decimal but achieves the same thing - it tells you implied probability and potential return.
Here's what matters about tennis moneylines. The favorite is usually priced much shorter than you'd see in football because there's no draw. In football, a heavy favorite might be 1.40 because the draw exists at maybe 4.00. In tennis, that same level of dominance gets priced at 1.20 or lower because the weaker player has to actually win, not just avoid losing.
This compresses value on favorites and inflates it on underdogs. A 1.15 tennis favorite is giving the underdog about a 13% chance. That's brutal. You're risking a lot to win very little. The underdog at 6.00 or 7.00 looks tempting but those odds exist for a reason - the player probably can't win.
The market is usually right about big skill gaps. Djokovic at 1.10 against a qualifier isn't value just because the odds are short. He wins that match 95 times out of 100. You're not finding edge by backing him and you're not finding edge by backing the qualifier at 8.00 unless you know something the market doesn't.
Where moneyline bets get interesting is in matches between players of similar ability. When both players are priced between 1.70 and 2.20, small edges matter. Surface preferences, recent form, head-to-head records, injury status - these factors actually move the needle. A player at 2.00 who should be 1.80 based on surface advantage is worth considering. A player at 1.70 who should be 1.90 based on fatigue from a previous round is worth avoiding.
Handicap Betting in Tennis (Game Handicaps and Set Handicaps)
Handicap betting in tennis comes in two main forms. Game handicaps and set handicaps. Both work on the same principle - you're giving one player a head start or asking them to win by a certain margin.
Game handicaps are the most common. They're expressed as +4.5 games or -6.5 games. If you bet Player A -4.5 games, they need to win by 5 or more games for your bet to win. If you bet Player B +4.5 games, they can lose by 4 games or fewer and you still win. The .5 is there to eliminate pushes.
Let me walk through an actual example because this confuses people. Djokovic plays Tsitsipas. Final score is 6-4, 6-3. That's 12 games for Djokovic, 7 games for Tsitsipas. Djokovic won by 5 games total. If you bet Djokovic -4.5 games, you win. If you bet Tsitsipas +4.5 games, you lose. If the handicap was -5.5 games on Djokovic, you'd lose because he only won by 5.
Game handicaps smooth out lopsided matches. Instead of backing a heavy favorite at 1.15 on the moneyline, you can back them -6.5 games at maybe 1.80. You're taking more risk (they have to dominate, not just win) but you're getting better odds. Instead of backing a huge underdog at 7.00 with almost no chance, you can back them +6.5 games at 2.00 and give them room to lose respectably.
The market prices game handicaps based on expected scoreline. If the bookmaker thinks Djokovic beats a qualifier 6-2, 6-1 (that's a 9-game margin), they'll set the handicap around -8.5 or -9.5 games. If you think the qualifier can steal a few more games than that, +9.5 at 2.00 might have value. If you think Djokovic destroys them even worse, -9.5 might be worth it.
Set handicaps work the same way but measure in sets instead of games. Player A -1.5 sets means they need to win in straight sets (2-0 in best-of-three, 3-0 in best-of-five). Player B +1.5 sets means they just need to win one set and you're good. Set handicaps are cleaner but less granular. There's a big difference between losing 6-0, 6-0 and losing 7-6, 7-6 but the set handicap doesn't care.
One thing to watch - some bookmakers use Asian handicaps in tennis, which split your stake across two lines. A -5.0 Asian handicap means half your stake is on -5 and half on -5.5. If the player wins by exactly 5 games, you get half your stake back (the -5 part pushes) and lose the other half (the -5.5 part loses). I don't love Asian handicaps in tennis because the math gets annoying and the upside isn't obvious, but they exist.
Totals Betting in Tennis (Over/Under Games)
Totals betting is straightforward. The bookmaker sets a line for total games in the match and you bet over or under. If the line is 21.5 games and you bet over, you need 22 or more total games. If you bet under, you need 21 or fewer.
Total games just means adding up every game played by both players. A match that finishes 6-4, 6-3 is 19 total games. A match that finishes 7-6, 6-7, 7-5 is 33 total games. Tight matches with tiebreaks push totals way up. Blowouts push them down.
The market sets totals based on expected competitiveness. A match between two big servers on grass might have a total of 23.5 games because the expectation is lots of holds and maybe a tiebreak or two. A match between two defensive baseliners on clay might have a total of 25.5 games because the expectation is longer games and more breaks of serve.
Here's where it gets useful. If you think a match will be closer than the market expects, bet over. If you think one player will dominate more than the odds suggest, bet under. The tricky part is that scoreline doesn't always correlate with competitiveness. A match can finish 6-4, 6-4 (18 games, under 21.5) but be incredibly tight with multiple deuces and long games. Another match can finish 7-6, 7-6 (26 games, over 21.5) but feel like a blowout where both players just held serve easily.
The market prices totals conservatively because variance is high. Tiebreaks add 6+ games instantly. A single break of serve in each set can swing totals by 4-6 games. That's why totals odds are usually around 1.85-1.95 on both sides. The bookmaker doesn't have a strong opinion, they're just setting a line and letting bettors decide.
Some bookmakers offer set-specific totals. First set over/under 9.5 games. Second set over/under 10.5 games. These are tighter and more dependent on early momentum, which makes them harder to bet profitably unless you're watching live. I've seen people make money on first-set totals by identifying slow starters or players who always hold serve early, but it's not a market I'd recommend for beginners.
Another version is player-specific totals. Player A over/under 11.5 games won. This is just asking whether that player wins 12+ games in the match regardless of whether they win or lose. It's a weird market that doesn't see much action but occasionally you'll spot something if you think a player will win one set comfortably but lose the match.
Exact Score Betting in Tennis (Set Betting)
Exact score betting in tennis means predicting the exact set score. 2-0, 2-1, 0-2, 1-2. In best-of-five matches (men's Grand Slams), you're predicting 3-0, 3-1, 3-2, and so on. It's harder than moneyline because you're not just picking the winner, you're predicting how they win.
The odds for exact scores vary massively. A 2-0 scoreline for a heavy favorite might be 2.20. A 2-1 scoreline for the same favorite might be 4.50. A 2-1 scoreline for the underdog might be 8.00. The bookmaker is pricing each outcome based on probability and the favorite winning in straight sets is always most likely if they're expected to win at all.
This market is tough because tennis matches are unpredictable once you get past the moneyline. A player can dominate the first set 6-1, lose focus in the second set and drop it 4-6, then refocus and win the third set 6-3. That's a 2-1 win but the scoreline doesn't reflect how the match actually played out. You can have the right read on the match and still get the exact score wrong because of momentum swings, lapses in concentration, or just variance.
Where exact score bets make sense is when you have a strong opinion on match dynamics. If you think Player A will win but struggle early before finding rhythm, 2-1 at 4.50 might be better value than 2-0 at 2.20. If you think Player B will win one tight set but lose the match, 1-2 for Player A at 5.00 might be better than straight 2-0.
The problem is the margins are thin. You're trying to predict something incredibly specific in a sport where individual points decide set outcomes. A match that finishes 7-6, 6-7, 7-5 (2-1) was maybe two points away from finishing 7-6, 7-5 (2-0) or 6-7, 5-7 (0-2). You can't predict that level of granularity consistently.
Most sharp bettors avoid exact score markets unless they see obvious mispricing. The juice is higher (bookmaker takes a bigger cut) and the variance is brutal. You can be right about the match and wrong about the score five times in a row. It's not a market that rewards correct analysis consistently enough to build a long-term edge.
How Tennis Odds Are Calculated (And Why They Move)
Tennis odds are calculated using algorithms that factor in player rankings, head-to-head records, recent form, surface preferences, and dozens of other variables. Bookmakers start with a base probability for each outcome, convert that to odds, then add their margin (the built-in profit).
A match where both players are evenly matched might have true probabilities of 50/50. The bookmaker might offer 1.90 on both players instead of 2.00 (which would be fair odds). That 10% gap is their margin. In tennis, margins are usually 4-6% on moneylines, higher on niche markets like exact score.
Odds move for two reasons. New information (injury news, weather changes, line-up confirmations) and betting action (sharp money coming in on one side). If a lot of money hits one player, the bookmaker will shorten their odds and lengthen the opponent's odds to balance their book and reduce risk. This doesn't always mean the favorite is overbet - sometimes it just means the bookmaker is protecting themselves from exposure.
Sharp bettors track line movement to identify where smart money is going. If a player opens at 2.20 and drops to 1.90 within an hour despite no news, that suggests informed bettors hammered that side early. Following sharp money works sometimes but you need to know which bookmakers are getting hit by sharps versus recreational bettors.
Tennis odds also move aggressively during matches if you're betting live. A single break of serve can swing odds from 1.80 to 1.40 in seconds. A player losing the first set might drift from 1.50 pre-match to 2.80 in-play. Live betting in tennis is incredibly volatile and requires fast decision-making, which is why most beginners should avoid it until they understand match dynamics better.
Common Mistakes Beginners Make With Tennis Odds
Backing heavy favorites on moneyline without considering the risk/reward. A 1.15 favorite needs to win 87% of the time just to break even. You're risking a lot to win very little and one upset wipes out seven wins. If you're going to back big favorites, use game handicaps to get better odds or just skip the match entirely.
Misunderstanding game handicaps and thinking it's about sets. I've seen people bet Djokovic -4.5 games thinking it means he wins by 2 sets. It doesn't. It means total games won minus total games lost. A 6-4, 6-3 win is only a 5-game margin. A 6-0, 6-0 win is a 12-game margin. Check the math before you bet.
Betting totals without knowing playing styles. Two big servers on grass will produce fewer total games than two baseliners on clay. Surface matters. If you're betting totals blind without knowing whether it's Wimbledon grass or Roland Garros clay, you're guessing.
Chasing exact scores because the odds look tempting. An 8.00 exact score bet isn't value just because it's 8.00. It's 8.00 because it's unlikely. Unless you have a strong reason to think that specific scoreline is more probable than the market thinks, you're just gambling on variance.
Not accounting for best-of-three versus best-of-five formats. Men's Grand Slam matches are best-of-five sets, which changes everything. A player can lose the first two sets and still win the match. Handicaps and totals work differently in best-of-five because there's more room for momentum swings and fatigue.
FAQ
What does -4.5 games mean in tennis betting?
It means the player needs to win by 5 or more total games. You add up all games won by both players, then subtract. If Player A wins 6-4, 6-3 (12 games) and Player B gets 7 games total, Player A won by 5 games. That covers -4.5. If they only won by 4 games, the bet loses.
Can tennis matches end in a draw for betting purposes?
No. Tennis matches can't end in a draw. If a player retires or is disqualified, the match is void or settled based on bookmaker rules (usually the player who advances is considered the winner). Dead heat rules don't apply in tennis like they do in golf or racing.
Why are tennis favorites priced so short compared to football?
Because there's no draw. In football, a favorite might be 1.50 with the draw at 4.00. In tennis, that same level of dominance gets priced at 1.20 or lower because the underdog has to actually win, not just avoid losing. The lack of a draw compresses odds on favorites and inflates them on underdogs.
