How Do NFL Teasers Work? Key Numbers and Common Traps

[Betting Forum]

Teasers seem like free points until you calculate what you're actually paying for them. Most recreational bettors use teasers wrong - they tease through numbers that don't matter or combine legs that kill the expected value.

This guide is for bettors who want to understand which teaser bets have actual value, which key numbers matter in the NFL, and why most 3-team teasers are just donating money to the sportsbook.

What a Teaser Actually Is​

A teaser lets you adjust the spread in your favor across multiple games. Standard NFL teasers give you 6, 6.5, or 7 points. Sounds brilliant. The catch is you're paying for those points through reduced odds and the requirement to win every leg.

A typical 6-point, 2-team teaser pays -110 or -120 depending on the book. You need both legs to win. If one leg pushes and one wins, most books treat it as a push and return your stake. If either leg loses, you lose everything.

Here's what confuses people - they think getting 6 free points is automatically valuable. It's not. The value depends entirely on which numbers you're moving through and what the true win probability becomes after the adjustment.

A 6-point teaser that moves a -8.5 favorite to -2.5 crosses three of the most important numbers in football: 7, 6, and 3. That has real value because NFL games land on those margins constantly. A 6-point teaser that moves a -2.5 favorite to +3.5 crosses the same key numbers. Also valuable.

But a teaser that moves -10.5 to -4.5? You're crossing 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, and 5. Only one of those numbers (7) shows up with any meaningful frequency. The rest are just... numbers. You're paying the same price for far less value.

Key Numbers in the NFL​

This matters more than anything else with teasers. NFL games land on certain margins way more often than others because of how scoring works. Touchdowns are worth 7. Field goals are worth 3. Most games end with combinations of those two scores.

The most important key numbers in order:
- 3 (field goal)
- 7 (touchdown)
- 6 (touchdown without extra point, or two field goals)
- 10 (touchdown + field goal)
- 4 (touchdown without extra point + missed 2-point conversion, or field goal + safety - rare but shows up)
- 14 (two touchdowns)

Everything else is basically noise. Games occasionally land on 1, 2, 5, 8, 9, 11, but not with enough frequency to build strategy around. When books price teasers, they're pricing based on the assumption that you understand this distribution and will use it properly.

Most bettors don't. They tease whatever games look good without checking which numbers they're crossing. That's the mistake.

Look, here's the thing - if you're teasing through 3 and 7, you're getting actual value because those margins show up in something like 15-20% of all NFL games combined. But if you're teasing through 12 and 13? Those margins barely exist. You're just shifting lines without improving your win probability enough to justify the price you're paying through reduced odds.

The Two Teaser Situations That Actually Work​

There are really only two teaser structures that make mathematical sense in the NFL. Everything else is either marginal or losing.

First situation: teasing favorites from -7.5 to -8.5 down through zero. A -8 favorite becomes -2 with a 6-point teaser. A -7.5 becomes -1.5. You're crossing 7, 6, 4, and 3. All key numbers. This is the classic "Wong teaser" structure, named after the sharp bettor who popularized it. The math works because you're dramatically increasing your win probability by moving through the most common margins.

Second situation: teasing underdogs from +1.5 to +2.5 up through 8 or so. A +2 underdog becomes +8 with a 6-point teaser. You're crossing 3, 4, 6, 7. Same key numbers, just from the other direction.

Both of these situations do the same thing - they take a game that's close to a coin flip and shift it through the numbers that decide the most games. You're buying actual probability, not just points.

What doesn't work? Teasing big favorites. A -13 favorite to -7 crosses some key numbers, sure, but you're still laying a touchdown after paying reduced odds. The market has already priced the favorite efficiently at -13. Moving it to -7 doesn't create an edge - the book has adjusted the payout to account for the improved win rate. Actually, I'm not sure that's exactly right. The book has priced it assuming you'll use teasers intelligently, so if you're teasing through the wrong numbers, you're the one getting the worst of it.

Same with teasing through numbers that don't matter. A +12 underdog to +18 is just moving through empty space. Yeah, you're getting 6 points, but none of those margins show up often enough to justify the price.

Why 3-Team Teasers Are Usually Terrible​

The payout on a 3-team teaser looks appealing - usually around +160 to +180. Three legs, all getting 6 points, decent odds if they hit. The problem is the math falls apart.

Let's say each leg of your teaser has a 72% chance to win after the adjustment. That's generous - you'd need to be teasing through perfect numbers in favorable situations to hit that consistently. Three legs at 72% each gives you about a 37% chance all three hit. At +165, you need to win more than 37.7% of the time to break even.

You're right on the edge, and that's assuming you're selecting perfect teaser spots every time. In reality, most people add a third leg that isn't a strong teaser candidate because they want the higher payout. That third leg might only be 65% or 68% to win. Your combined probability drops and suddenly you're in clear minus-EV territory.

The other issue - three legs means three opportunities for bad variance to kill you. A weird bounce, a late meaningless touchdown, a missed extra point. Any of those things in any of your three games and you lose the entire bet. With 2-team teasers, you have fewer chances for random nonsense to wreck you.

I see people on the forum all the time posting their 4-team and 5-team teasers. The payouts look sexy. The win rate is catastrophic. You'd need something like 80%+ hit rate per leg to make a 4-team teaser profitable at typical odds, and that's just not realistic even with perfect number selection.

Stick to 2-team teasers. If you can't find two strong spots in a week of NFL, don't force it.

Teaser Traps That Cost People Money​

Few things that kill teaser value but people do them anyway:

Teasing totals. Some books let you tease totals - moving an Over/Under by 6 points. This almost never has value. Key numbers for totals exist but they're much less pronounced than for spreads. Moving a total from 47 to 41 or from 47 to 53 doesn't cross enough meaningful numbers to justify the odds you're getting. The distribution is flatter.

Teasing divisional games or rivalry games. These games are often closer and weirder than the market expects. Teasing through key numbers helps, but divisional games have a higher frequency of unexpected results and strange margins. Not saying never do it, but understand the volatility is higher.

Teasing bad teams getting points. Just because a team is getting +7 and you can move them to +13 doesn't mean you should. Bad teams find ways to lose by 14+. If the team has no offense and a terrible defense, teasing them through key numbers doesn't matter as much because they're capable of getting blown out regardless.

Mixing teaser-worthy and non-teaser-worthy legs. This is the most common mistake. You find one perfect spot - say a -7.5 favorite you can move to -1.5. Then you need a second leg for your teaser so you grab something that looks good but doesn't tease through key numbers. Maybe a +9.5 underdog you move to +15.5. That second leg is dead weight. You've diluted the value of your good leg by pairing it with garbage.

Only include legs in a teaser if they would independently qualify as strong teaser candidates. Don't force combinations just to get a bet down.

How Books Price Teasers (And Why That Matters)​

Sportsbooks aren't stupid. They know the math on key numbers. When they offer 6-point teasers at -110, they've calculated that most bettors won't use teasers optimally. They're banking on people teasing through irrelevant numbers, adding weak third legs, and generally not understanding the underlying value.

If everyone only teased through 3 and 7, books would either stop offering teasers or adjust the odds to make them unprofitable. The only reason teasers can have value is because the general betting population subsidizes the smart money by making -EV teaser bets constantly.

This is why teaser odds vary between books. Some books have sharper customer bases and offer worse teaser odds. Some books cater to recreational bettors and offer slightly better odds because they know most of their customers are making bad teasers anyway.

Shopping for the best teaser odds matters. The difference between -110 and -120 on a 2-team teaser is significant over any meaningful sample size. If you're going to use teasers, get accounts at multiple books and compare pricing.

Also worth knowing - some books have different rules for pushes. Some treat a push and a win as a loss. Some treat it as a push (return your money). Some treat it as a win on a reduced payout. These rules drastically change the math. Always check the teaser rules at whatever book you're using.

When to Just Bet the Spread Straight​

Sometimes the straight bet is better than the teaser even if you could tease through key numbers. If you're getting a -7.5 favorite at a great number because of market movement or you have reason to believe the line is soft, taking -7.5 at -105 might have more value than teasing to -1.5 at -110 combined with another leg.

The teaser forces you to find a second leg and risk both. The straight bet lets you isolate your edge on the one game you have conviction on. If you don't have two strong teaser spots, don't manufacture one just to get the teaser down.

This is something I've gone back and forth on. There are weeks where I'll have one perfect teaser leg and spend an hour trying to talk myself into a second leg that qualifies. Half the time I end up just betting the first game straight and passing on the teaser entirely. That's probably the right move more often than not.

Anyway.

Calculating Teaser Breakeven​

You need to know what win rate you need per leg to break even on a teaser at given odds. Basic math but worth walking through.

For a 2-team teaser at -110, you need to win 52.4% of your teasers to break even (same as a straight bet). If each leg needs to hit at the same rate for the combined probability to hit 52.4%, you need each leg to win about 72.4% of the time. Square root of 0.524 is roughly 0.724.

So ask yourself - after teasing through the key numbers, does this leg have a 72%+ chance to cover? If not, it doesn't belong in the teaser. If both legs are 72%+, you're at breakeven. You need better than that to actually profit.

This is where most people fool themselves. They assume that getting 6 points automatically gets them to 72% or higher. It doesn't. A -7.5 favorite might be 53% to cover at -7.5. Teasing it to -1.5 through all the key numbers might get you to 75% or 78%. That's the value.

But a -10.5 favorite that's 54% to cover at -10.5 might only be 68% to cover at -4.5 because you're not crossing enough meaningful numbers. You're paying the same price for worse probability improvement.

The books are pricing teasers as if you're selecting spots that improve from ~50% to ~72%. If you're selecting spots that only improve to 65% or 68%, you're losing money systematically.

Common Questions People Get Wrong​

Should I tease through zero? Yes, if it means crossing 3. A -2.5 to +3.5 is one of the best teases you can make. You're going from needing the favorite to win by 3+ to getting points on a basically even game. Crossing through 0 itself doesn't matter - crossing 3 matters.

Can I tease past key numbers? Like -9.5 to -3.5? Technically yes, but you're moving through 7, 6, and 4 which is fine. The issue is you're still laying points after the tease. A -3.5 line is meaningfully different than a -1.5 line even though both are under a field goal. You've used 6 points but you're still in "need the favorite to win" territory. Not terrible, but there are usually better options.

What about 7-point teasers? The odds are usually worse (around -130 or -140) and the extra point doesn't add enough value to justify the price. You're better off with 6-point teasers and being selective. The main advantage of 7-point teasers is you can tease -8.5 to -1.5 and -7.5 to -0.5, both of which move through all the key numbers cleanly. But the price is steep.

Is teasing home underdogs better? Home underdogs perform slightly better than away underdogs, so there's some logic to it. But the impact isn't large enough to override the basic key numbers principle. A home underdog at +2 is a better tease than an away underdog at +2, all else being equal, but it's marginal.

FAQ​

Should I ever tease more than 2 teams?
Almost never. The math on 3+ team teasers is brutal and you need an unrealistically high hit rate per leg to make them profitable. Stick to 2-team teasers. If you can't find two strong spots, don't force it.

What's the minimum number of key numbers I should cross in a teaser?
Ideally you want to cross 3 and 7, or at minimum one of them plus one other semi-key number like 6 or 4. If you're not crossing at least 3 or 7, you probably shouldn't be teasing that game. There are exceptions but that's the baseline.

Can I use teasers in college football?
College football has different key numbers because the game is higher scoring and more volatile. 3, 7, and 10 still matter but the distribution is flatter. Teasers in college can have value but the spots are harder to identify and the edge is smaller. Most people who tease college football are just burning money. Be honest about whether you actually understand college key numbers or if you're just applying NFL logic to a different sport.