Betting sober vs betting after a few drinks: Honest experiences

[FadeThePublic]

I'm going to start this potentially controversial thread because I think it's something a lot of us deal with but don't talk about openly. How does alcohol affect your betting decisions and have you tracked whether you make better or worse bets when you've been drinking?

I'll be honest about my own experience. I used to regularly have a few beers on Sunday while watching NFL games and making live bets. I told myself I was just relaxing and enjoying football Sunday. But when I actually went back and tracked my bets, my live bets on Sundays after drinking were dramatically worse than my sober weekday bets. We're talking 44% win rate on Sunday live bets versus 57% on sober pregame bets during the week.

That was a brutal reality check. I was essentially giving back a significant portion of my weekday profits every Sunday because I couldn't resist making impulsive live bets after a few drinks. The alcohol lowered my inhibitions and made me chase action when I should have been sitting on my hands.

I stopped drinking during games about two years ago and my results improved immediately. My Sunday live betting went from 44% to 51%, which is still worse than my pregame bets but at least not catastrophically bad. More importantly, my overall volume decreased because I wasn't making impulse bets anymore.

I know this is a sensitive topic and not everyone wants to admit that alcohol affects their decision making. But I'm curious whether others have noticed similar patterns or whether some people can drink and bet without it impacting their results.

 

[SharpEddie47]

This is an important topic that doesn't get discussed enough because people don't want to sound preachy or judgmental. But the reality is alcohol impairs cognitive function and betting requires clear analytical thinking. Those two things are fundamentally incompatible.
I've never tracked drunk betting versus sober betting for myself because I made it a rule from the beginning of my betting career to never bet after consuming any alcohol. Zero tolerance. Not one beer, not one glass of wine, nothing. When I'm betting I'm working and I don't drink at work.

This isn't a moral position, it's a practical one. Alcohol impairs several cognitive functions that are critical for good betting decisions. It reduces risk aversion which makes you more likely to make large bets or risky parlays. It impairs impulse control which makes you more likely to bet games you should skip. It affects memory and analytical thinking which makes it harder to apply your handicapping process correctly.

The research on alcohol and decision making is unambiguous. Even small amounts of alcohol measurably impair cognitive performance. People who think they can have a couple beers and still make good decisions are fooling themselves. The impairment is real even if you don't feel drunk.
Fade's experience of going from 44% to 51% win rate after stopping drinking during games is not surprising at all. That's a massive improvement that translates to thousands of dollars over a full season. Anyone who's betting while drinking and not tracking the impact is almost certainly losing money they don't realize they're losing.

Beyond the direct impact on decision quality, alcohol also affects betting in indirect ways. It makes you more social and more likely to bet based on conversations with friends rather than your own analysis. It makes you more emotional and more likely to bet based on feelings rather than logic. It makes you more confident in your opinions even when you shouldn't be.
My recommendation is absolute. Do not bet when you've consumed any alcohol. If you want to drink while watching games, fine, but close your betting apps and don't place any bets. Do your betting during the week when you're completely sober and thinking clearly. The improvement in your results will pay for far more alcohol than you're consuming on Sundays.

I know this sounds extreme and some people will push back and say they can handle a beer or two without it affecting them. But I'd challenge those people to actually track their results like Fade did. Separate your sober bets from your drinking bets and calculate the win percentage on each. I guarantee the sober bets will outperform significantly.

Trust the process, not your gut.

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

I appreciate Fade starting this conversation and Eddie's characteristically blunt take on it. I want to add some nuance because I think there's a middle ground between total abstinence and problem drinking.
I do sometimes have a beer or two while watching games on weekends. But I have very strict rules about when I allow myself to bet if I've been drinking. First, I only bet pregame, never live bets. Second, I only bet plays I've already identified and written down during the week. Third, I limit myself to a maximum of two bets if I've had any alcohol at all.
These rules prevent the impulsive decision making that Eddie and Fade are warning about. I'm not sitting there after a few beers thinking let me find something to bet on this random game. I'm executing on decisions I made when I was completely sober earlier in the week.

That said, I have noticed that even with these strict rules, I'm more likely to talk myself into marginal bets on Sundays than I am during the week. A play that I ranked as tier two confidence on Wednesday might get promoted to tier one in my mind on Sunday after a couple beers. I don't have hard data on whether this affects my results because the sample size of Sunday bets is small, but it's something I'm conscious of.
I think Eddie's zero tolerance approach is the safest and most responsible recommendation, especially for newer bettors who don't yet have strong discipline. But I also think that for experienced bettors who have developed good habits and systems, having a beer while watching games isn't necessarily disastrous as long as you have guard rails in place.

The key is being honest with yourself about whether you have those guard rails and whether you're actually following them. If you find yourself making impulsive live bets after drinking, you need to either stop drinking during games or stop betting during games. There's no middle ground that works.
Fade's 44% win rate on Sunday drinking bets is shocking but also probably not unusual. I suspect a lot of recreational bettors have similar patterns where they're doing reasonably well during the week and then giving it all back on weekends when they're drinking and betting impulsively. The difference is most people aren't tracking it carefully enough to see the pattern.

 

[FadeThePublic]

Tony's approach of having strict rules about betting while drinking is interesting and probably works for someone with his level of discipline. But I think for most people, trying to have a couple beers and maintain discipline about betting is like trying to diet while sitting in a bakery. The temptation is too strong.
The other thing I realized after I stopped drinking during games is how much more I actually enjoyed watching football sober. When I was drinking I'd get emotionally caught up in games I had bet, I'd make impulsive decisions I'd regret, I'd wake up Monday morning trying to remember what bets I made on Sunday night. None of that was actually enhancing my enjoyment of the sport.

Now I watch games sober, I make better decisions, I remember everything clearly, and honestly I have more fun because I'm not stressing about impulsive bets I made while buzzed. If I want to drink I do it on Friday or Saturday night when I'm not betting. Sundays are for sober analytical football watching.

The financial impact of this change has been significant. That 7 percentage point improvement in my Sunday betting translates to roughly $2,000 extra profit per season. I can buy a lot of beer with $2,000. The idea that I need to be drinking while betting to have fun is just addiction logic that I was telling myself to justify bad habits.

Eddie's point about alcohol affecting risk aversion is huge. When I was drinking and betting I'd regularly make bets at 3x or 4x my normal unit size because they felt like locks after a few beers. Of course they weren't locks, I was just drunk and overconfident. Those oversized bets killed my bankroll multiple times before I figured out what was happening.
I also noticed I was much more likely to chase losses when drinking. If my early Sunday bets lost I'd keep firing off more bets trying to get back to even, which is classic tilt behavior. Alcohol removes the brake that would normally stop you from chasing. Sober me knows not to chase losses. Drunk me thinks one more bet will fix everything.

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

@FadeThePublic you're absolutely right about the chasing losses aspect. That's probably the most dangerous part of betting while drinking. The normal self control mechanisms that would stop you from making stupid decisions get shut off by alcohol.

I'll admit that my strict rules approach requires constant vigilance. There have definitely been times where I've had a couple beers and thought man I really like this live betting opportunity and I've had to forcibly close my betting app to prevent myself from breaking my own rules. The temptation is real even for someone who's been doing this for 10 years.

The other problematic pattern I've seen with drinking and betting is social betting. You're watching games with friends, everyone's drinking, someone suggests betting on the late game, and suddenly you're making a bet you never would have made sober just because your buddies are doing it. That social pressure combined with alcohol is a recipe for terrible decisions.

I think what this discussion shows is that even if you can technically bet while drinking without it being catastrophic, the marginal benefit of drinking while betting is basically zero while the marginal risk is substantial. The risk reward just doesn't make sense. Why take the risk of impaired decision making for the minor benefit of having a beer while watching football?

Eddie's zero tolerance rule is harsh but it's unambiguous and it eliminates all risk. You can't make drunk bets if you're not drunk. That simplicity has a lot of value especially for people who struggle with discipline or impulse control.

 

[SharpEddie47]

I want to emphasize something that Fade touched on but didn't fully develop. The financial impact of drinking while betting is not just about the individual bad bets you make. It's about the compounding effect of multiple bad decisions over time.

If drinking causes you to win at 44% instead of 51% on let's say 50 bets per year at $100 per bet, that's not just a $700 difference in profit. That's $700 per year, every year, forever, as long as you continue the pattern. Over 10 years that's $7,000. Plus the opportunity cost of what that money could have earned if it was still in your bankroll compounding.

The true cost of betting while drinking is probably 2x to 3x the direct losses because of these compounding effects. You're not just losing money on the bad bets, you're losing the future profits you would have made with better bankroll management.

Beyond the financial argument, there's also the question of why you're betting in the first place. If you're betting for entertainment and you're okay losing money, then drinking and betting might be fine as part of your entertainment budget. But if you're betting because you think you can be profitable, drinking while betting is sabotaging your own goals.

You can't have it both ways. You can't say I'm a serious bettor trying to make money and also I'm going to drink while making betting decisions. Those two things are incompatible. Either you're serious about this and you don't drink while betting, or you're not serious and you accept that drinking is part of your entertainment experience even though it costs you money.

Most people haven't consciously made that choice. They're drifting between trying to be profitable and treating betting as entertainment, and the alcohol facilitates that drift by impairing their ability to recognize which mode they're in.

For anyone reading this who bets while drinking, I challenge you to do Fade's experiment. Track your sober bets separately from your drinking bets for one full season. Calculate the win percentage and ROI on each. If there's no difference, fine, you're the exception. But I'm confident that 95% of people who do this honestly will find their drinking bets are significantly worse than their sober bets.

And once you have that data, you have a clear choice. Continue drinking while betting and accept the financial cost. Or stop drinking while betting and improve your results. The choice is yours but at least make it consciously based on data rather than just assuming alcohol doesn't affect you.

 

[FadeThePublic]

Eddie's point about making a conscious choice is crucial. I didn't consciously choose to drink and bet, it just sort of happened gradually. Beer while watching football seemed normal and harmless. Adding betting to that seemed natural. I never sat down and thought through the implications.
It wasn't until I tracked the data and saw the 44% win rate that I realized I was essentially paying $2,000 per season for the privilege of drinking beer on Sundays. When I framed it that way, the choice became obvious. I'd rather have the $2,000 and drink beer on Friday nights instead.

The other realization was that I was using alcohol to make betting feel less stressful. If I was sober and losing on Sunday, I'd feel bad about it. If I was drinking, the losses didn't sting as much. But that's terrible logic because the losses are real regardless of whether alcohol is numbing the pain. I was basically drinking to avoid facing the reality that I was making bad betting decisions.
Once I stopped drinking during games I had to actually confront my mistakes directly. It was uncomfortable at first but it made me a much better bettor because I couldn't hide from my errors behind alcohol.

I hope this thread helps at least one person realize they might have a similar pattern and track their data to see if alcohol is affecting their results. If it saves someone even $500 per year it was worth having this uncomfortable conversation.

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

This has been a valuable discussion and I appreciate everyone's honesty about their experiences. I think the key takeaways are clear.

First, alcohol impairs betting decisions for the vast majority of people. If you're betting while drinking you're almost certainly performing worse than you would sober.

Second, track your results separately for sober bets versus drinking bets. The data will tell you if alcohol is costing you money.

Third, if you find that drinking impairs your betting, you have to make a conscious choice about which is more important to you. Either stop drinking during betting or accept that betting is entertainment and you're paying for that entertainment with worse results.

Fourth, even if you think you're disciplined enough to drink and bet successfully, be honest with yourself about whether you're actually maintaining that discipline or just telling yourself you are.

I'm going to commit to tracking my Sunday bets separately for the rest of this season to see if there's a measurable difference between my weekday sober bets and my weekend bets where I sometimes have a couple beers. I'll report back with what I find.

Thanks for starting this conversation Fade. It's not comfortable but it's necessary.

 

[SharpEddie47]

This was an important discussion and I'm glad people were willing to be honest about their experiences. The stigma around admitting that alcohol affects your betting decisions prevents people from addressing the problem.
My final thought is this. Professional bettors don't drink while betting. Period. If you want to emulate what successful bettors do, that's one clear behavior to copy. I've never met a consistently profitable long term bettor who drinks while making betting decisions. That should tell you everything you need to know.
For anyone struggling with this issue, the solution is simple even if it's not easy. Don't drink while betting. Close your betting apps on days when you're drinking. Do your betting during the week when you're sober. The improved results will speak for themselves.