Injury news: How fast do books adjust and can you beat the market?

[FadeThePublic]

I've been trying to get faster at reacting to injury news and I'm curious what everyone's experience has been with actually beating the market when news breaks. Like when a starting quarterback gets ruled out an hour before kickoff or a star player pops up on the injury report unexpectedly, how much time do you actually have before the books adjust the lines?
My experience has been that the books are insanely fast now. Like within 60 seconds of significant injury news hitting Twitter the lines are either pulled completely or adjusted dramatically. I've tried to jump on injury news multiple times and by the time I log into my betting app and navigate to the game, the line has already moved or disappeared.

I'm starting to think that beating the market on injury news is basically impossible for individual bettors in 2025. The books have algorithms monitoring social media and news feeds, they have traders watching everything in real time, and they're adjusting lines faster than any human can react. Maybe five or ten years ago you could get an edge by being quick but that window seems completely closed now.
Has anyone here actually made money consistently by jumping on injury news before the books adjust? Or is this one of those edges that used to exist but doesn't anymore?

 

[SharpEddie47]

You're mostly right that beating the books on publicly announced injury news is nearly impossible now, but you're asking the wrong question. The question isn't whether you can beat the market when news hits Twitter. The question is whether you can identify injury situations before they become public knowledge or whether you can better assess the impact of an injury than the market does.

Let me break this down into three categories of injury information and how they create opportunities.

First, public breaking news like a star player being ruled out an hour before kickoff. You're correct that this is basically impossible to beat now. The books have automated systems that detect keywords on Twitter and adjust lines within seconds. By the time you see the tweet and process what it means, the line has already moved. I've tested this myself and the window is maybe 30 to 45 seconds maximum before the adjustment happens. You'd need to have bets queued up ready to fire the instant news breaks and even then you're probably too late.

Second, injury report information that's public but not fully digested by the market. This is where there's still opportunity. Every Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday the NFL releases injury reports. Most of this information is priced into the lines immediately but sometimes there are nuggets that the market misses or undervalues. A backup offensive lineman being questionable might not move the line but if you understand that player's importance to the blocking scheme it might be significant information.

Third, and this is the real edge, insider information about injuries before they're publicly reported. I'm not talking about illegal inside information from team employees. I'm talking about following beat reporters who have relationships with teams, watching practice reports closely, noticing when a player is limited in practice for reasons that aren't clearly explained. This information is technically public but it requires work to find and interpret.

The third category is where serious bettors still find edges on injuries. You're not beating the market on speed, you're beating the market on information quality and interpretation. When a starting left tackle is listed as questionable with an ankle injury, most bettors don't know whether that's serious or not. But if you've been following that team closely and you know he's been dealing with this injury for three weeks and he practiced fully on Friday, you can infer he's probably going to play and you can bet accordingly before the official announcement.

The other edge with injuries is understanding their actual impact better than the market does. When Patrick Mahomes is out the line moves 6 or 7 points because everyone knows he's crucial. But when a team's number three wide receiver is out, the line barely moves even though that receiver might be critical to certain formations or situations. If you understand roster construction and play calling at a deeper level than the average bettor, you can identify when the market is undervaluing or overvaluing an injury.

I've tracked my injury-related bets for years and my ROI on them is about 3.2% which is solid but not spectacular. The edge exists but it's small and it requires significant work. You need to be following teams closely, monitoring injury reports religiously, understanding the actual on-field impact of different positions and players, and you need to be ready to bet quickly when you identify a market inefficiency.

The days of making easy money by being the first person to see a Twitter notification are over. But there's still edge to be found for bettors who do the work to understand injuries better than the market does.

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

Eddie's breakdown is spot on and I want to expand on the point about understanding injury impact better than the market because this is where my coaching background actually helps quite a bit.
The market is pretty efficient at adjusting for obvious injuries like starting quarterbacks or star running backs. But the market often misses or undervalues injuries to less glamorous positions that are actually critical to how a team functions. Offensive line injuries are the best example. When a starting left tackle goes down the line might barely move even though that could be a massive advantage for the opposing pass rush.

I spend a lot of time watching film and understanding blocking schemes and when I see that a team's starting center or starting left guard is out, I know that's going to affect their ability to run inside zone or pass protect in obvious passing situations. The casual bettor doesn't think about that stuff but it matters enormously for how the game will actually play out.
The other thing people don't consider enough is the quality of the backup. If a star player is out but the backup is actually pretty good, the market might overreact and create value on that team. Conversely if a good player is out and the backup is terrible, the market might not adjust enough. You need to know the depth charts and understand who's actually going to be on the field.
Defensive injuries can be even more important than offensive injuries in some cases but the market tends to undervalue them. If a team's starting middle linebacker is out and he's the one making all the play calls and adjustments, that can completely disrupt a defense even if the backup is physically talented. Leadership and communication matter and those things aren't captured in stats that the market uses to price injuries.

I also look at injury situations where a player is listed as questionable or doubtful and try to figure out if they're actually going to play. You can often tell by watching how a team manages the injury during the week. If a player practices fully on Friday he's almost always playing. If he's limited all week and questionable, he might play but he's probably not going to be effective. That's information you can use to your advantage before the official active/inactive announcements come out 90 minutes before kickoff.
The timing issue Fade mentioned is real though. Even when you have good information about an injury impact, you still need to get your bet in before the market adjusts. I try to bet as soon as I have confidence in my read rather than waiting until the last minute. If I think an injury is being undervalued by the market on Thursday, I'll bet Thursday even though more information might come out Friday. The risk of waiting is that the line moves against you before you can act.

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

I've tried to jump on injury news a few times and I've literally never been able to get a bet in before the line changes. Like I'll see on Twitter that some player is out and I'll go to bet and the game is either not available to bet anymore or the line has already moved a ton.
One time Mahomes was listed as out like right before a game and I tried to bet on the Chiefs opponent immediately but by the time I opened my app the line had already moved from like minus 3 to plus 4. It was crazy how fast it happened. I don't think there's any way for regular people like me to beat the books on this stuff.

The stuff you guys are talking about with injury reports and backup players and offensive line depth makes sense but honestly I don't have time to follow all that. I have a full time job and I can't be watching practice reports and studying depth charts for every team. Is there any way for casual bettors to use injury information or is this only something serious handicappers can do?

I guess one thing I've noticed is that sometimes when a star player is listed as questionable all week and then plays, the line doesn't really account for him being back at full strength. Like if everyone assumes he's not playing and then he does play, maybe there's value there? But I don't know how to tell if a player is actually going to play when they're listed as questionable.

 

[SharpEddie47]

Princess to answer your question, no, casual bettors cannot realistically get an edge from injury information in most cases. This is one area where the time investment required is significant and if you're not willing to do the work you're better off ignoring injuries as a handicapping factor entirely.

The exception might be if you're a die hard fan of one specific team and you follow that team obsessively. You watch every practice report, you follow all the beat reporters, you understand the roster inside and out. In that case you might have an edge on games involving your team when injuries occur because you understand the impact better than the market does. But that's a very narrow edge and you're only getting a few opportunities per season.

For the broader market you need to be following multiple teams closely and that requires hours of work every week. Most casual bettors aren't going to do that and shouldn't pretend they have an edge on injuries if they're not putting in the work.

The questionable player situation you mentioned is interesting though. You're right that sometimes the market assumes a player won't play and prices the line accordingly, and then if that player does play there can be value. But you need to be able to predict whether the player will play better than the market is predicting. That requires following the injury closely all week and understanding the team's patterns for managing injury designations.

Some teams are very conservative with injury reports and list everyone as questionable even if they're going to play. Other teams are more accurate. Learning those team-specific patterns takes time but it can give you an edge in projecting who will actually be active on game day.

My advice for casual bettors is to simply avoid betting games where there's significant injury uncertainty. If the starting quarterback is questionable and you don't have high confidence whether he'll play, just skip that game. There are plenty of other games to bet where the information is more clear. Don't bet based on incomplete information hoping you'll get lucky.

 

[FadeThePublic]

I want to add something about how injury news affects public betting patterns because this is actually where I've found some edges even though I'm not the fastest at reacting to breaking news.
When a star player is ruled out, the public immediately hammers the other side. Quarterback gets ruled out, everyone bets the opponent. Star running back is out, everyone bets the under. The public reaction to injury news is very predictable and often excessive. That's where the contrarian opportunity shows up.

Here's an example from earlier this season. A star quarterback was ruled out on Friday and the line immediately moved 6 points. Then over the next 24 hours the public kept hammering the opponent and the line moved another 2 points. By game time the backup quarterback's team was getting 8 points when the initial move should have been maybe 5 or 6 points. The backup actually played pretty well and the team covered easily.
The public sees injury news as black and white. Star player out equals bet the other team. But reality is more nuanced. Backup quarterbacks in good systems with good coaching can perform reasonably well. Running back committees can be just as effective as a single star. Defensive injuries often matter less than people think because the scheme matters more than individual players.

So even if you can't beat the market on speed when injury news breaks, you can potentially beat the market by fading the public overreaction in the hours and days after the news breaks. Let the public panic, watch the line move too far, then take the other side if the injury impact is being overvalued.
Eddie's point about different position injuries being valued differently by the market is important here. The public overreacts to skill position injuries and underreacts to offensive line injuries. If you can identify when the market is making that mistake you can bet accordingly.

The other angle is injury news that makes the public think a game will be one-sided when really it just changes the style of the game. If a star quarterback is out and the backup is a game manager type, the public assumes blowout. But maybe the team just runs the ball more and plays conservatively and the game stays close. Understanding how injuries affect game script is another edge.

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

@FadeThePublic makes a great point about public overreaction being potentially more profitable than trying to beat the market on speed. I've definitely seen situations where the initial line move on an injury was correct but then the public pushed it even further and created value on the other side.

The game script point is really important too. When Josh Allen was out for the Bills a few years back their backup came in and the team completely changed their offensive approach. They ran the ball more, used shorter passes, kept everything simple. The public assumed the Bills offense would collapse but they actually stayed competitive because the coaching staff adjusted the game plan to fit the backup's strengths.
That's something casual bettors don't think about but coaches do it all the time. When a star player is out, good coaches don't try to make the backup do everything the star did. They simplify the game plan and play to the backup's strengths. Sometimes that means the team is actually harder to defend because they become more predictable but also more efficient at what they're trying to do.

Princess to address your question about how casual bettors can use injury info, here's my suggestion. Pick one or two teams that you really follow closely. Learn their roster, follow their beat reporters, watch their practice reports. When those teams have injury situations you'll have an edge because you understand the impact better than the average bettor. You don't need to do this for every team, just focus on teams you already care about anyway.
For games involving teams you don't follow closely, Eddie's advice is right. Just avoid betting those games if there's significant injury uncertainty. Wait for spots where you have clarity and confidence rather than betting into situations where you're guessing.

The other thing I'll mention is that injury information is cumulative throughout the season. Early in the season you don't know how good backup players are or how teams will adjust to injuries. But by Week 10 or Week 12 you've seen how teams respond to adversity and you can make better predictions about injury impacts. So your edge on injuries actually grows as the season progresses if you're paying attention.

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

Okay the idea of focusing on just the Chiefs and learning their roster really well makes sense. I already watch every Chiefs game anyway and I follow a bunch of Chiefs Twitter accounts so I probably do have better information about Chiefs injuries than I would about random other teams.
Like I knew Travis Kelce was dealing with an ankle issue for like two weeks before it became a big story because the Chiefs beat reporters were talking about it. Maybe I should have been using that information to bet Chiefs unders or something? I don't know if his injury actually affected his performance though.

The point about public overreaction is interesting too. I've definitely seen situations where a star player is out and everyone assumes that team is going to lose but then the backup plays well or the team just adjusts their game plan. Maybe instead of trying to be the first one to bet when injury news breaks I should wait and see if the public pushes the line too far.
I still feel like injury betting is super complicated though. There's so much to keep track of and so many variables. But I guess that's true of all sports betting and if I want to get better I need to pick some area to focus on and get good at it. Maybe Chiefs injury situations can be my thing lol.

 

[SharpEddie47]

Princess that's actually a smart approach. Becoming an expert on one team's injury situations is much more realistic than trying to track injuries across the entire league. And the Chiefs are a good team to focus on because they're often in primetime games with lots of public attention, which means more opportunities for public overreaction when injuries occur.

On the Kelce injury example you mentioned, that's exactly the kind of information edge we're talking about. If you knew he was dealing with an ankle issue before it was widely reported and you understood how that might affect his performance, you could potentially find value betting Chiefs unders or fading Chiefs spreads before the market adjusted. But you'd need to actually analyze whether the injury meaningfully impacted his ability to play effectively.
One important distinction I want to make is between injuries that affect availability and injuries that affect performance. A player who's out completely is easy to price. But a player who's playing through an injury at 80% effectiveness is much harder to price and that's where edges exist. The market knows the player is active but the market might not fully account for the reduced effectiveness.

This requires film study and observation over time. You need to watch how a player performs when they're playing hurt versus when they're healthy. Most casual bettors don't do this work but if you're focusing on one team like Princess is suggesting, it becomes manageable.
The other thing to consider with injuries is cumulative impact. One injury to an offensive lineman might not matter much. But if three offensive linemen are playing hurt, suddenly the entire line is compromised even though none of the individual injuries seemed significant. The market struggles to price these cumulative effects and that's another area where careful observation can find edges.
I want to reiterate though that injury betting is advanced handicapping. If you're still struggling with basic concepts like bankroll management and unit sizing, you shouldn't be trying to get an edge from injury information yet. Master the fundamentals first, then add injury analysis as an additional layer of sophistication.

 

[FadeThePublic]

I think we've covered the main angles on injury betting. The quick summary is you can't beat the books on speed when breaking news hits, but you can potentially beat the market by understanding injury impacts better than average or by fading public overreaction to injury news.
The key takeaways are follow teams closely enough to understand their depth and coaching adjustments, wait for public overreaction rather than trying to be first, focus on injuries that are undervalued by the market like offensive line or defensive leadership, and track your injury-related bets separately to see if you actually have an edge.

For most casual bettors Eddie's advice to avoid games with significant injury uncertainty is probably the safest approach. But if you're willing to put in the work to deeply understand one or two teams, there are edges to be found in injury situations involving those teams.

Princess focusing on the Chiefs makes sense given you already follow them closely. Just make sure you're actually tracking whether your Chiefs injury reads are profitable or if you're just guessing. The data will tell you over time if you have a real edge or not.

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

Good discussion all around. One final thought I'll add is that injury situations also create opportunities for middle or arbitrage situations if you're paying close attention.
Sometimes a player is listed as questionable and the line reflects uncertainty. If you bet one side early in the week and then the player is officially ruled out later, the line will move significantly and you might be able to bet the other side and guarantee profit or at least create a middle opportunity. This requires having capital available and being willing to tie up money in multiple positions but it's another way to extract value from injury situations.
The most important thing is to be systematic about whatever approach you take. If you're going to focus on injuries as part of your handicapping, track everything carefully and make sure you're actually generating positive results before you commit significant capital to injury-based betting.

 

[SharpEddie47]

Tony's point about middles is advanced but worth mentioning for people who have the bankroll and sophistication to pursue it. I've done this successfully several times when there's injury uncertainty early in the week.
The broader point stands though. Injury betting is not easy money. The edge is small, the work required is significant, and you need large sample sizes to prove you actually have an edge versus just getting lucky. Most bettors would be better served focusing on fundamental handicapping and treating injuries as just one factor among many rather than trying to build an entire strategy around injury information.

But for those willing to do the work, there are still inefficiencies in how the market prices certain types of injuries and those inefficiencies can be exploited profitably over time.