Early European Odds Value Betting – Beating the Closing Line Consistently

[FootballValueLab]

Hey everyone,


I wanted to share a bit about my current betting approach and see if there’s any interest from others who might want to follow or discuss it.


Basically, I place my bets in the window between the time European bookmakers release their opening odds and when the Asian markets go live. I’ve built a betting model that identifies overpriced odds — spots where the market hasn’t adjusted yet.


In almost all cases, I’m able to beat the closing line (and often by a wide margin).
A good example: today’s Manchester United vs. Liverpool match. The early odds on United opened around 8.0 or even higher, and are now down to about 5.4.


I’m thinking about posting my bets here (after I’ve placed them myself, of course), mainly to see how quickly the prices move and how many others can still get on before the odds collapse. Luckily, there are quite a few different bookies offering these early lines.


Would anyone be interested if I shared my picks and tracked how the odds move?


Cheers
EarlyEdgeEddy

 

[Betting Forum]

Hey everyone,


I wanted to share a bit about my current betting approach and see if there’s any interest from others who might want to follow or discuss it.


Basically, I place my bets in the window between the time European bookmakers release their opening odds and when the Asian markets go live. I’ve built a betting model that identifies overpriced odds — spots where the market hasn’t adjusted yet.


In almost all cases, I’m able to beat the closing line (and often by a wide margin).
A good example: today’s Manchester United vs. Liverpool match. The early odds on United opened around 8.0 or even higher, and are now down to about 5.4.


I’m thinking about posting my bets here (after I’ve placed them myself, of course), mainly to see how quickly the prices move and how many others can still get on before the odds collapse. Luckily, there are quite a few different bookies offering these early lines.


Would anyone be interested if I shared my picks and tracked how the odds move?


Cheers
EarlyEdgeEddy

I find it interesting. Profiting before the match even starts is what always fascinated me.

 

[FootballValueLab]

I find it interesting. Profiting before the match even starts is what always fascinated me.

Yes, that’s also an option.
In theory, you can bet on the opening line and then, shortly before the game starts, hedge on the other side with an Asian bookmaker if possible.
Personally, though, I would always let the bets run.

 

[FootballValueLab]

Since the new opening lines for the week after next came out this weekend (bookmaker: Bet365)

21.10.2025
Leverkusen-PSG
Leverkusen @5.25

01.11.2025
Brighton-Leeds
Leeds @5.5

01.11.2025
Burnley-Arsenal
Arsenal AH-1,5 @1.85

01.11.2025
Villarreal - Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano @6.5

01.11.2025
Bayern Munich - Bayer Leverkusen
Bayern Munich AH-1,5 @1.98

 

[FootballValueLab]

02.11.2025
Wolfsburg - TSG Hoffenheim
TSG Hoffenheim @2.88

 

[RedMerseyMind]

Hey everyone,


I wanted to share a bit about my current betting approach and see if there’s any interest from others who might want to follow or discuss it.


Basically, I place my bets in the window between the time European bookmakers release their opening odds and when the Asian markets go live. I’ve built a betting model that identifies overpriced odds — spots where the market hasn’t adjusted yet.


In almost all cases, I’m able to beat the closing line (and often by a wide margin).
A good example: today’s Manchester United vs. Liverpool match. The early odds on United opened around 8.0 or even higher, and are now down to about 5.4.


I’m thinking about posting my bets here (after I’ve placed them myself, of course), mainly to see how quickly the prices move and how many others can still get on before the odds collapse. Luckily, there are quite a few different bookies offering these early lines.


Would anyone be interested if I shared my picks and tracked how the odds move?


Cheers
EarlyEdgeEddy

Hey Eddy,


That’s actually a really solid niche you’ve carved out there — early-market inefficiencies are where most of the genuine value still lives. Props for doing the legwork.


I’d definitely be interested in following your posts, especially if you’re transparent about when you take the price and what books you’re referencing. Half the challenge for regular punters is timing — by the time odds hit Pinnacle or the sharper Asian books, the edge is usually gone.
That said, posting too early might create a weird feedback loop here — if enough people tail, the market could move even faster, and then your edge becomes harder to measure. But I get the appeal; tracking how quickly prices react would be fascinating data in itself.
I’d suggest maybe a weekly summary thread — list a few picks, opening odds, and closing line comparison. That way, even if people miss the entry, they can still learn from how your model identifies value.
And fair play on the United–Liverpool example. Those odds moved for a reason — early traders were way too bearish on United.

Count me in for following the experiment.


— Dan