The most economical and profitable betting system

[vehtrunel]

Betting system for 3 soccer matches, for the first half type 1x2/end of the match type 1x2
The total number of possible combinations is 729. We will add a condition to our system and create a system of 12 combinations. We got a ratio of 1 : 60.75 which means we have a very economical system.

The condition that must be met is:
1. In the first half, all 1x2 types should be represented, and at the end of the match, all 1x2 types should be represented.
2. There should be a change in the results of all 3 matches - 1. If the home team had the lead in the first half, the match should end in a draw or a victory for the away team, 2. If the first half was a draw, the match should end in a victory for one of the teams, 3. If the away team led in the first half, the match should end in a victory for the home team or a draw.

If this condition is met, we have one winning combination.

Each of these combinations has an average coefficient of 4250. The total bet for all 12 combinations is on average 15, for example £. This means that each combination has an average stake of £1.25. The stake per combination can be adjusted so that all 12 combinations have a different stake but the same winnings of £5040.

That £5040 is enough to bet on this system 340 times, which is equivalent to 10 seasons in the German second league. With one winning combination we have covered all the betting costs for ten seasons. If we have only one winning combination per season we have made 9 wins of £5040 each or a total positive balance of around £45000. (If this amount is small, we can increase the average bet)

Why the German second league? Because they are the only ones that have 3 games on Saturday at the same time and 3 games on Sunday at the same time.

 

[StatManDave]

Interesting concept — appreciate the detail you’ve put into it.
But a quick reality check from a numbers standpoint.


What you’re describing is a conditional system bet, not a predictive model. The math behind the “1 : 60.75 efficiency ratio” sounds good on paper, but the foundation depends entirely on the probability of the scenario itself — and that’s where it breaks down.

• Change of result in all 3 matches (HT vs FT) is a low-frequency event. In major European leagues, it happens in roughly 18–22% of matches individually. For all three to hit your change-condition simultaneously, that drops to around 0.7–1% probability before even accounting for 1x2 distribution.
• Even with your 12-combination coverage, your effective implied odds vs. payout don’t hold expected value long term. You’re basically banking on variance delivering you one of those rare patterns before bankroll exhaustion.
• The “10 seasons = 340 rounds” argument assumes independence — but football isn’t purely random. Lineups, motivation, and schedule distort the statistical independence you’d need for that math to hold.

So yes, it’s elegant from a design point of view — but not economical in practice.
Systems like this can work short term with luck, but over enough samples, the edge collapses under negative expectation.

If you enjoy the structure, no harm in testing it on paper for a season — just don’t let the theoretical payout graph fool you into thinking it’s a positive-EV strategy.

 

[vehtrunel]

Interesting concept — appreciate the detail you’ve put into it.
But a quick reality check from a numbers standpoint.


What you’re describing is a conditional system bet, not a predictive model. The math behind the “1 : 60.75 efficiency ratio” sounds good on paper, but the foundation depends entirely on the probability of the scenario itself — and that’s where it breaks down.

• Change of result in all 3 matches (HT vs FT) is a low-frequency event. In major European leagues, it happens in roughly 18–22% of matches individually. For all three to hit your change-condition simultaneously, that drops to around 0.7–1% probability before even accounting for 1x2 distribution.
• Even with your 12-combination coverage, your effective implied odds vs. payout don’t hold expected value long term. You’re basically banking on variance delivering you one of those rare patterns before bankroll exhaustion.
• The “10 seasons = 340 rounds” argument assumes independence — but football isn’t purely random. Lineups, motivation, and schedule distort the statistical independence you’d need for that math to hold.

So yes, it’s elegant from a design point of view — but not economical in practice.
Systems like this can work short term with luck, but over enough samples, the edge collapses under negative expectation.

If you enjoy the structure, no harm in testing it on paper for a season — just don’t let the theoretical payout graph fool you into thinking it’s a positive-EV strategy.

So, I took the initial steps to create lotto systems back in 1983. Since 1984 until today, I have been creating lotto and sports betting systems. Some of them have been published, and the vast majority are unpublished.

The above-mentioned sports betting system was not created for individual applications in major European leagues. This system was created in 2001 and is strictly applied only in the 2nd Bundesliga, because its match format is not found in any other football league:
1. three matches at the same time on Saturday make up the first system,
2. three matches at the same time on Sunday make up the second system,
3. the remaining three matches make up the third system.
This covers all 9 matches of the 2nd Bundesliga. The system has been tested from 2001 to the present day for 24 seasons. If it had not given me positive results, I would have stopped using it a long time ago and would not have published it at all.

This system is created exclusively for long-term sports betting and exclusively for the 2nd Bundesliga.

For the first time in 2025, I posted a few of my many sports betting systems on two forums and unexpectedly encountered negative reviews from newly created profiles. I will no longer post new systems or betting ideas.

 

[StatManDave]

So, I took the initial steps to create lotto systems back in 1983. Since 1984 until today, I have been creating lotto and sports betting systems. Some of them have been published, and the vast majority are unpublished.

The above-mentioned sports betting system was not created for individual applications in major European leagues. This system was created in 2001 and is strictly applied only in the 2nd Bundesliga, because its match format is not found in any other football league:
1. three matches at the same time on Saturday make up the first system,
2. three matches at the same time on Sunday make up the second system,
3. the remaining three matches make up the third system.
This covers all 9 matches of the 2nd Bundesliga. The system has been tested from 2001 to the present day for 24 seasons. If it had not given me positive results, I would have stopped using it a long time ago and would not have published it at all.

This system is created exclusively for long-term sports betting and exclusively for the 2nd Bundesliga.

For the first time in 2025, I posted a few of my many sports betting systems on two forums and unexpectedly encountered negative reviews from newly created profiles. I will no longer post new systems or betting ideas.

I apologize for any negativity I may have introduced here. I guess it's just my character. Do not take me too seriously. I just try to see every angle.
Anyone who’s been building and testing systems since the early ’80s deserves respect, regardless if we agree or disagree.

The 2. Bundesliga angle actually makes a lot of sense. It’s one of the few leagues with consistent scheduling and competitive balance, which gives enough structure for pattern-based systems to function over the long term. The fact you’ve stress-tested it over 24 seasons is no small thing — most models don’t last 24 weeks before breaking down under variance.