England Round 11

[spkutano]

 

[spkutano]

Tottenham vs Manchester United Preview:

Possible starting lineups:

Tottenham:
Vicario; Porro, Romero, Van de Ven, Spence; Bentancur, Palhinha, Sarr; Kudus, Richarlison, Simons

Manchester United:
Lammens; Yoro, De Ligt, Shaw; Amad, Casemiro, Fernandes, Dalot; Mbeumo, Cunha; Sesko

The Spurs had an awful last season and manager Ange Postecoglou paid the prize. He was sacked despite winning the Europa League, a success that secured Champions League football for the current season. However, the things look much better under Thomas Frank. Tottenham currently sit on the sixth position with 17 points, same as their actual opponents. Home form is something that worry the fans. The Spurs have lost the previous two home matches. Last weekend they lost 1:0 to Chelsea, while previously suffered a 2:1 loss to Aston Villa. Even the draw with Wolverhampton could be rated as poor. If something is positive, that's definitely a high 4:0 win over FC Copenhagen in the Champions League. Frank could rotate the players in order to provide fresh legs, but long injury list make a problem. He will be without James Maddison, Dejan Kulusevski, Radu Dragusin, Dominic Solanke, Yves Bissouma, Ben Davies, Kota Takai, Archie Gray and Lucas Bergvall, while Mohammed Kudus is rated as doubtful with a knock. His potential absence will be a big handicap, but at the same time is a chance for Johnson.

Manchester United have started the new season in poor way, they lost three of the opening six matches. Nevertheless, they have improved in the last period. Ruben Amorim insisted on his tactic and the results are much better. The Red Devils have three wins and one draw on the last four matches in the Premier League. They beat 2:0 Sunderland, 2:1 Liverpool and 4:2 Brighton, but drew 2:2 with Nottingham in the last round. What is important for my pick, they scored and conceded in each of the last three matches. I expect Man United to score again. Two players will be very motivated to improve their personal records. Bruno Fernandes is looking to assist in three consecutive away games for the first time since November 2020. The other player is Bryan Mbeumo. He has scored four Premier League goals against Tottenham and he is looking for the fifth. The Cameroonian has already scored five goals against Brighton and Southampton. Amorim has the majority of his players available, only Lisandro Martinez is out. However, that's not a big problem as he has been sidelined since February with a serious knee injury. The defender has returned to training, but it seems this match comes too soon for him.

Tottenham vs Manchester United Prediction:

Tottenham will welcome Manchester United to London on Saturday in one of the two derbies this weekend. The other derby is the clash between Manchester City and Liverpool on Sunday. I expect an interesting derbies and I think there will be goals. The Spurs are in series of two defeats at home and the fans are frustrated. However, the high 4:0 home win over FC Copenhagen in the Champions League could be a turning point. The players confidence is higher and I believe they will score at least once here. Manchester United, meanwhile, play much better. Perhaps Ruben Amorim and his players feel less pressure. The Red Devils have three wins and one draw on the last four matches. They beat Sunderland, Liverpool and Brighton, but drew 2:2 with Nottingham. What is important, the attack is working very well and they scored in each of the last six matches. I expect both teams to score again.

Tottenham vs Manchester United Pick: Both teams to score - Yes @ 1.53 with Everygame

 

[spkutano]

Sunderland vs Arsenal Preview:

Possible starting lineups:

Sunderland:
Roefs; Hume, Mukiele, Ballard, Geertruida, Reinildo; Xhaka, Sadiki; Traore, Isidor, Le Fee

Arsenal:
Raya; Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori; Eze, Zubimendi, Rice; Saka, Merino, Trossard

Sunderland are newcomers in the Premier League, but at the same time they are the most pleasant surprise. Nobody was expecting to sit so high after 10 rounds. The Black Cats are sharing the third place with Liverpool and Bournemouth and the fans start dreaming. Some of them dream about the Champions League, but also about the title. And why not, Leicester City in 2017 showed nothing is impossible. Sunderland have some respectable results, like victory at Stamford Bridge, though the next period will be crucial for their ambitions. The leaders are arguably the toughest opponents, but at the same time a real indicator of Sunderland's power. Manager Regis Le Bris could be satisfy with the fact his team are yet to lose at home in the Premier League this season. He will try to continue that way, but has some issues. Defender Omar Alderete is rated as doubtful, while five more players are definitely sidelined - Aji Alese, Dennis Cirkin, Romaine Mundle. Leo Fuhr Hjelde and Habib Diarra.

Arsenal are the leaders in the Premier League with 25 points, six more than second-placed Manchester City. They are in series of five victories in the Premier League, beating Newcastle, West Ham, Fulham, Crystal Palace and Burnley. The Gunners are equally successful in other competitions. They have a maximal 12 points in the Champions League, beating Athletic Bilbao, Olympiakos, Atletico Madrid and Slavia Prague. Arsenal also won 2:0 against Brighton last week and qualified for the Carabao Cup quarterfinals. The atmosphere in the squad is good, while the players confidence is "High as Everest". Arteta has some important players out injured, but this season he has long roster. Viktor Gyokeres, Gabriel Martineli Gabriel Jesus, Noni Madueke, Martin Odegaard and Kai Havertz are out injured, but that should not be a problem for Arteta. Kepa Arrizabalaga is rated as doubtful, while Martin Zubimendi, who picked up a knock at Turf Moor, should recover in time for this clash.

Sunderland vs Arsenal Prediction:

Sunderland will try to upset the leaders. One player will particularly be motivated - Granit Xhaka. Once loved by Arsenal fans and wearing the captain's armband, then transformed into enemy because of his stupid behavior. Reuniting with the club he made 225 Premier League appearances for, will show the Gunners fans have a mixed emotions about him. Xhaka will try to score in back-to-back games in the competition for the first time since his final year with Arsenal in 2023. But it is easier to say. Arteta composed a fantastic team that rarely conceded goals. So far they received only three this season, from Liverpool, Man City and Newcastle. Arsenal are too strong at the moment. Despite the fact some important players are out injured, I expect Arsenal to win. Since the odds for straight victory are low, I will suggest a handicap victory.

Sunderland vs Arsenal Pick: Arsenal -1.5 AH @ 2.23 with Pinnacle

 

[spkutano]

Manchester City vs Liverpool Preview:

Possible starting lineups:

Manchester City:
Donnarumma; Nunes, Dias, Gvardiol, O'Reilly; Gonzalez; Cherki, Silva, Foden, Doku; Haaland

Liverpool:
Mamardashvili; Bradley, Konate, Van Dijk, Kerkez; Gravenberch, Mac Allister; Salah, Szoboszlai, Wirtz; Ekitike

Manchester City will welcome the reigning champions Liverpool to the Etihad Stadium on Sunday. Both sides dropped many points in the last period, so Arsenal comfortably sit on the first place. The Citizens have started the new season in mixed way. The current form is also mixed. After the narrow defeat to Aston Villa, Manchester City were much better in the last round as they secured a 3:1 win against high-flying Bournemouth. Haaland was the key name on that game after scoring a brace. The Norwegian striker is in fantastic form and another double against the reigning champions means he will write a Premier League history. Haaland will break the record for the quickest time to reach 100 goals in the competition. This will be his 108th appearance on Sunday and it is just a matter of time when he will dethroning Alan Shearer, who scored 100 goals in 124 games. Rayan Cherki should also be mentioned after scoring twice and assisting three more goals in his last three appearances for the club. Guardiola has the majority of his players available for this match, but two important names are struggling with injury - Rodri and Mateo Kovacic.

"Jekyll and Hyde", a phrase originating from Robert Louis Stevenson's 1886 novella "The Strange Case of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde" could describe Liverpool. The Reds showed two faces this season. They were fantastic in the opening five matches in the Premier League, recording five victories, but then lost the next four. Last week the Reds beat 2:0 Aston Villa and the fans hope another winning series will follow. The narrow victory against Real Madrid in the Champions League is also good for the players confidence. However, both victories were obtained at Anfield, thanks to the home advantage. Liverpool now play away from home and that could be a problem. Of the 28 times they’ve played in the Premier League era at Etihad (or Maine Road), Liverpool have won just five, including the last season's victory in February. Slot will try to use the similar tactic, but it is not that simple. Plus, he has some selection issues. Alexander Isak is rated as doubtful with a groin injury he suffered against Eintracht Frankfurt last month. Three more players are definitely sidelined - Jeremie Frimpong, Alisson Becker and Giovanni Leoni.

Manchester City vs Liverpool Prediction:

"Jekyll and Hyde", a phrase originating from Robert Louis Stevenson's 1886 novella "The Strange Case of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde" could describe this season's Liverpool. The Reds showed two faces. The question is simple, what to expect here. Manchester City lost 1:0 to Aston Villa, but responded in best possible manner. City defeated 3:1 Bournemouth and then demolished Borussia Dortmund 4:1 at the Etihad. Haaland found the back of the net on both occasions, but Phil Foden also shined, scoring his first brace since January. The atmosphere in the squad is good, while the players confidence is high. It was a complete performance for Pep Guardiola's men. Liverpool also secured two victories on the last two matches. The Reds beat 2:0 Aston Villa, but their victory should not be overrated. A gift from Emiliano Martinez and deflection helped Liverpool to beat Villa. The performance against Real Madrid was better and Slot's men deserved the victory. The problem is the inconsistency, but also the fatigue. Both full-backs are tired, as well as the midfielders. I think Manchester City are closer to the victory.

Manchester City vs Liverpool Pick: Manchester City to win @ 1.89 with Pinnacle

 

[BgFutbol]

Manchester City vs Liverpool – Betting Preview & Picks​

Alright lads, big one this weekend – City vs Liverpool at the Etihad. Easily the biggest game of the season so far and always a cracker when these two meet. Here’s how I see it from a betting point of view

---

Form & Momentum

City at home are just a different beast. They’ve been ruthless at the Etihad – unbeaten in ages, scoring for fun, and generally suffocating opponents with possession. Pep’s boys look sharp again and the machine is purring.

Liverpool on the other hand… they’ve been solid overall, but away from home they’ve shown a few cracks. They tend to struggle when pressed high, and the last few trips to Manchester haven’t gone their way.

That said, Klopp always finds a way to make it awkward for Pep. So I don’t think it’ll be a walk in the park either.

---

Tactical Breakdown

City will obviously look to dominate the ball, pin Liverpool back and try to drag them around with movement. Expect Foden and Doku (if they start) to stretch the play, and Haaland to bully the backline.

Liverpool’s best weapon will be Salah on the break. If they can absorb pressure and counter quickly, City could get caught high up the pitch. Szoboszlai and Nunez could be key too if they’re sharp.

---

Betting Angle

Here’s how I’m playing it:

City to win – Hard to back against them at home, especially with Liverpool’s away form. (Around 2.00 odds)

Both Teams To Score (Yes) – Always seems to hit in this fixture. Neither defence has looked perfect.

Over 2.5 Goals – These two rarely play out dull games. 3+ goals looks very likely.

If you’re chasing a bit more value, City to win & BTTS combo might be worth a shot.

---

Prediction

I’m going:
Manchester City 2 – 1 Liverpool

Feels like a tight but entertaining game where City just edge it thanks to home advantage and control in midfield.

---

Final Thoughts

Don’t underestimate Liverpool – they’ve got the quality to grab a goal and turn it around if City switch off. But from a betting perspective, City’s home form + Liverpool’s defensive issues away make it pretty clear where the edge is.

As always – bet smart, small stakes, enjoy the game.

---

Let me know your thoughts or your own picks below – always good to compare angles!

 

[BlueMoonTips]

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds​

Not the most glamorous fixture on paper, but I’ve got a bit of time for this one. Forest at home are always a different beast – noisy crowd, decent energy, and they press well early on. Leeds, though, have that wild inconsistency that drives punters mad. One week they look like a promotion side, next they’re folding to a bottom-half team.


Forest under Cooper (if he sticks with his usual setup) tend to keep things tight early, then look to nick one through Elanga or Gibbs-White on the break. Leeds, on the other hand, still love that high tempo style but it leaves gaps at the back — and away from Elland Road they can look shaky under pressure.


From a betting point of view, I’m leaning Forest Draw No Bet around evens. I could see this being scrappy — maybe 1-0 or 1-1. Corners might be worth a look too since both sides attack down the wings, but don’t expect a goal fest.


Pick: Forest DNB (around 2.00)
Leans: Under 2.5 goals, 1-1 correct score


Leeds fans will probably say they’ll “bounce back” again, but I’ve heard that all season. Forest at home are a much safer shout.

 

[RedMerseyMind]

I actually quite like this matchup from a betting perspective. Forest are decent at home but they’ve been leaking goals lately, and Leeds have enough pace to take advantage if they stay switched on. Summerville’s been sharp, and if Rutter plays in that false nine role again, Forest could struggle with movement between the lines.


Leeds’ main problem is discipline – they commit too many cheap fouls, and Forest’s set-pieces can hurt them. I’m not overly confident on the result because both sides are unpredictable, but I see goals here.


Over 2.5 is sitting around 1.90 last I checked, and that feels generous. Forest score at home, Leeds always look like they can nick one or two.


Pick: Over 2.5 goals (1.90)
Pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes


Wouldn’t shock me if this ends 2-2. Leeds’ defence still gives me heart attacks, but they never go down quietly.

 

[BlueMoonTips]

Brentford vs Newcastle​

Not going to lie — I’ll never turn down a chance to fade Newcastle. The hype around them has dipped a bit lately, but you still get this sense from their fans that they’re some unstoppable force. Truth is, once you take away St. James’ Park, they look very ordinary.


Brentford at home are no pushovers. The Bees play brave football, especially under the lights, and they press as a unit. Even with Toney out, they find ways to create — Wissa’s movement has been sharp, and Mbeumo’s always a threat on the counter.


Newcastle’s biggest issue right now is the back line. Too many soft goals, too much rotation, and without full control in midfield, they get exposed when teams don’t just sit deep. Brentford are one of those sides who’ll actually have a go at them.


From a betting view, Brentford Draw No Bet around 2.10 is a great angle. If you prefer safety, Brentford +0.25 AH gives you a cushion. I can’t back Newcastle away right now — not with how sluggish they’ve looked since the injury pile-up.


Prediction: Brentford 2–1 Newcastle
Main Bet: Brentford DNB (≈2.10)
Leans: Both Teams to Score – Yes


Wouldn’t shock me if Brentford bullied them physically and caught them napping on set pieces. People can keep buying the Newcastle “project” story — I’ll keep betting against them on the road.

 

[StatManDave]

Brentford vs Newcastle

Data says Brentford have value here.


Quick snapshot:

• Brentford home xG avg: 1.84
• Newcastle away xGA avg: 1.71
• Brentford unbeaten in 5 of last 6 home league games
• Newcastle conceded in 9 straight away fixtures

The market’s pricing this almost 50/50, but based on shot data and possession control, Brentford should edge it slightly. Newcastle’s pressing numbers have dropped since October, and their PPDA has worsened to 12.3 (up from 9.1 last season).


Backing Brentford +0.25 AH gives decent protection if it ends level.


Lean: Brentford +0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95
Alt: BTTS – Yes @ 1.80


Numbers don’t care who’s got the better PR department.

 

[BlueMoonTips]

Not gonna lie — that was classic Newcastle. All bark early on, then crumble once they’re asked to actually control a game. Brentford just outworked them, simple as that.

You could see it coming a mile off too. Bees were sharper in transitions, pressed in the right moments, and Toney bullied their backline. Howe’s side looked miles off it once the tempo dropped — same old story away from home.