Betting on your favorite team: Bias or insider knowledge?

[SharpEddie47]

This is going to be unpopular, but betting on your favorite team is one of the fastest ways to drain your bankroll. I don't care how many games you watch or how well you think you "know" your team.

Here's why:

• Emotional bias clouds judgment - You'll find reasons to justify bets that the numbers don't support
• You overvalue "intangibles" - "They want it more" or "revenge game" narratives that don't show up in the data
• Sample size of one - Following one team closely doesn't give you an edge when the market is pricing in ALL available information

I've been tracking my bets for 15 years. In year 3, I stopped betting on the Cowboys entirely. My ROI on Dallas games was -8.3% over two seasons. Every other team I bet? +4.1% ROI. The difference? Emotion.
If you can't bet against your team when the value is there, you're not a serious bettor. Period.
Trust the process, not your gut.

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

Okay I'm probably going to get roasted for this but... I literally bet on the Chiefs almost every week
BUT hear me out! I watch every single game, I follow all the beat reporters, I know when players are banged up before it hits the injury report. Last season I knew Chris Jones was playing hurt for 3 weeks before anyone else talked about it. That's gotta count for something right?
Also betting on your team makes the games SO much more exciting. Even if we're up 21-0 I'm still invested because I took the over or whatever.
Yeah maybe I'm a little biased but I've also hit some really good bets because I trust my team. I knew the Chiefs would bounce back after that loss to the Raiders because I could see they were just having an off week.
Is it really that bad if you're having fun and not betting the mortgage?

 

[FadeThePublic]

This is actually an interesting angle that nobody talks about: betting on your favorite team can be +EV if the public is betting against them.
Think about it. If you're a homer and the books KNOW homers exist, they're going to shade the lines to account for that bias. But what happens when your team is actually bad or public perception is negative? The line overcorrects.

I'm a Browns fan (yeah, I know). I bet AGAINST the Browns probably 60% of the time. But when the public has completely given up on them and the line is inflated? That's when I strike. Week 7 last year, Browns +10.5 against the 49ers. Public hammered SF. Browns covered easily.

The trick is being self-aware enough to recognize when you're the sucker and when the public is. Most homers can't do that, which is why Eddie's right about MOST people. But if you can separate emotion from value, following your team closely can actually identify spots where the market overreacts.


RIP to anyone who auto-bets their favorite team every week though.

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

I'm somewhere in the middle on this one. Eddie's right that pure emotional betting is a bankroll killer, but I also think there's something to be said for deep team knowledge IF you can be objective about it.

As a coach, I watch film differently than casual fans. When I'm betting on teams I follow closely, I'm noticing:

• Offensive line cohesion - are they getting push? Communication issues?
• Defensive adjustments - is the DC making halftime changes or staying stubborn?
• Body language and effort - you can see when a team has quit on their coach

That said, I have a rule: If I can't confidently bet AGAINST my favorite team when the spot is right, I don't bet on them either. It's a litmus test for bias.
Example: I'm a Michigan alum. Last season there were 3 games where I bet against Michigan because the matchup was wrong. I was right twice, wrong once. But I also bet ON Michigan 4 times when I saw advantages the public wasn't seeing. Went 3-1 there.
The key is honesty with yourself. If you're making excuses for bad matchups or ignoring red flags, you're gambling not betting.

 

[SharpEddie47]

FadeThePublic makes a fair point about contrarian value, but that's not really "betting on your favorite team" - that's betting against public perception that happens to involve your team. Big difference.

Tony, I respect your approach, but you're the exception not the rule. Most people who say "I can be objective about my team" absolutely cannot. It's like asking someone if they're a good driver - 90% of people say yes, but statistically that's impossible.

Here's a simple test for anyone reading this: Pull up your betting history and calculate your ROI on bets involving your favorite team vs all other bets.
If you're afraid to do this exercise, you already know the answer.

ParlayPrincess, you seem like good person, but "knowing they'd bounce back because I trust my team" is exactly the kind of reasoning that loses money over time. Variance exists. Sometimes teams bounce back, sometimes they don't. The fact that you were right once doesn't validate the process.
I'm not saying it's impossible to bet on your favorite team profitably. I'm saying 95% of people can't do it, and they'd be better off with a blanket rule against it.


Trust the process, not your gut.

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

Okay Eddie you're probably right that I should track it better I definitely don't keep spreadsheets like you do lol

But like... I did actually win money on the Chiefs last season overall! I think. I mean I didn't lose a ton at least.
And yeah maybe "trust my team" isn't the most scientific reason but sometimes you just have a FEELING you know? Like I can tell when Mahomes is locked in vs when he's forcing things. That has to be worth something.

@CoachTony_Bets I really like your rule about betting against your team as a test! That makes sense. Like if I can't bring myself to bet against KC even when they're playing the Bills and the line seems off... maybe that's a sign I shouldn't bet on them either.

I guess my real question is - if betting on your favorite team makes the season more fun and you're not betting crazy amounts, is it really that bad? Like I have a job and this is my entertainment budget basically. Some people spend $500/month on concerts or whatever, I spend it on sports bets and it makes games more exciting

Not everyone is trying to be a professional bettor right?

 

[FadeThePublic]

@SharpEddie47 Fair distinction. I'm definitely not saying "bet your team because you love them." I'm saying knowing your team's tendencies and roster deeply CAN identify market inefficiencies - but only if you're willing to bet against them just as often.

The problem is what Princess just said: "sometimes you just have a FEELING." That's not an edge, that's hope. And hope is expensive in this market.

Here's what actually matters when betting on a team you follow closely:

• Injury information before it's public - legit edge if you have it
• Understanding coaching tendencies - does your coach always go conservative with a lead? That affects live betting
• Roster deployment in different situations - who plays in garbage time, who gets benched in blowouts

What DOESN'T matter:

• "This team is due for a bounce back" - regression to the mean doesn't work on a game-by-game basis
• "I can just tell when they're locked in" - confirmation bias
• "They want this game more" - both teams are professionals getting paid

If you're betting on your team because of feelings, you're the public money I'm fading. If you're betting on your team because you've identified a market inefficiency that your deep knowledge revealed, that's different.
Most people think they're the second one but they're actually the first.

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

@SharpEddie47 Fair distinction. I'm definitely not saying "bet your team because you love them." I'm saying knowing your team's tendencies and roster deeply CAN identify market inefficiencies - but only if you're willing to bet against them just as often.

The problem is what Princess just said: "sometimes you just have a FEELING." That's not an edge, that's hope. And hope is expensive in this market.

Here's what actually matters when betting on a team you follow closely:

• Injury information before it's public - legit edge if you have it
• Understanding coaching tendencies - does your coach always go conservative with a lead? That affects live betting
• Roster deployment in different situations - who plays in garbage time, who gets benched in blowouts

What DOESN'T matter:

• "This team is due for a bounce back" - regression to the mean doesn't work on a game-by-game basis
• "I can just tell when they're locked in" - confirmation bias
• "They want this game more" - both teams are professionals getting paid

If you're betting on your team because of feelings, you're the public money I'm fading. If you're betting on your team because you've identified a market inefficiency that your deep knowledge revealed, that's different.

Most people think they're the second one but they're actually the first.

 

[SharpEddie47]

I think we're actually converging on a consensus here, which is rare for this forum.

The hierarchy of betting on your favorite team:


Tier 1 - Losing Money:

• Betting on your team because you "trust them" or "they're due"
• Not being able to bet against your team even when value screams to do it
• Justifying bad beats with "we'll get em next time"
• Ignoring red flags you'd see clearly with any other team

Tier 2 - Entertainment Betting:

• Small stakes betting to make games more fun (Princess's approach)
• You know you're not beating the market, you're buying entertainment
• Keeping it within a controlled entertainment budget
• Not pretending this is investment strategy

Tier 3 - Actual Edge (Very Rare):

• Access to legitimate injury/lineup info before the market
• Deep film study revealing matchup advantages the market hasn't priced (Tony's approach when he's honest)
• Contrarian spots where public bias against your team creates value (Fade's angle)
• MUST be willing to bet against your team just as frequently

95% of "I bet on my favorite team" people are Tier 1.Maybe 4% are Tier 2 and honest about it.Less than 1% are actually Tier 3.
The problem is everyone thinks they're Tier 3 when they're actually Tier 1. Princess, to her credit, seems to be Tier 2 and knows it.
Here's my challenge: Anyone who bets on their favorite team should be REQUIRED to track those bets separately for one full season. At the end, calculate your ROI. If it's negative, you stop. If it's positive, keep doing what you're doing.
Most people won't do this exercise because they're afraid of what they'll find.


Trust the process, not your gut.