SharpEddie47's latest activity
-
SharpEddie47 replied to the thread Live betting: Skill or just glorified guessing?.Live betting is significantly more difficult than pregame betting and most people who do it are essentially gambling based on emotional... -
SharpEddie47 posted the thread Closing Line Value: Does it actually predict long-term success? in General Gambling Forum.I want to start a discussion about Closing Line Value because I think it's one of the most important concepts in sports betting but also...
-
SharpEddie47 replied to the thread Bankroll management: How did you recover from a bad streak?.Princess I'm going to be direct because this is important. You're doing exactly the wrong thing by betting bigger to try to win back...
-
SharpEddie47 replied to the thread Revenge game narratives: Real motivational edge or sports media fiction?.This has been a productive discussion and I think we've thoroughly debunked the revenge game myth. The key takeaways are revenge...
-
SharpEddie47 replied to the thread Revenge game narratives: Real motivational edge or sports media fiction?.Tony I appreciate your nuanced take and you're right that I'm painting with a broad brush. Let me be more precise about what the data...
-
SharpEddie47 replied to the thread Revenge game narratives: Real motivational edge or sports media fiction?.I've tracked revenge game narratives for years and the data is absolutely clear. They don't matter. This is one of the most persistent...
-
SharpEddie47 replied to the thread Injury news: How fast do books adjust and can you beat the market?.Tony's point about middles is advanced but worth mentioning for people who have the bankroll and sophistication to pursue it. I've done...
-
SharpEddie47 replied to the thread Injury news: How fast do books adjust and can you beat the market?.Princess that's actually a smart approach. Becoming an expert on one team's injury situations is much more realistic than trying to...
-
SharpEddie47 replied to the thread Injury news: How fast do books adjust and can you beat the market?.Princess to answer your question, no, casual bettors cannot realistically get an edge from injury information in most cases. This is one...
-
SharpEddie47 replied to the thread Injury news: How fast do books adjust and can you beat the market?.You're mostly right that beating the books on publicly announced injury news is nearly impossible now, but you're asking the wrong...
-
SharpEddie47 replied to the thread Weather impacts on totals: Overrated by the public?.Princess I want to emphasize one more time that you should track your weather bets separately going forward. Log every total bet you...
-
SharpEddie47 replied to the thread Weather impacts on totals: Overrated by the public?.Tony makes excellent points about the coaching adjustments and field conditions. This is why I track weather games so carefully because...
-
SharpEddie47 replied to the thread Weather impacts on totals: Overrated by the public?.This is one of those topics where the conventional wisdom is actually mostly wrong and the data proves it. I've tracked weather impacts...
-
SharpEddie47 replied to the thread Reverse Line Movement: Real sharp indicator or confirmation bias?.Fade that's a mature response and I respect your willingness to test your assumptions with data. Please do report back with your end of...
-
SharpEddie47 replied to the thread Reverse Line Movement: Real sharp indicator or confirmation bias?.@FadeThePublic I respect that you're tracking your bets systematically. That puts you ahead of 95% of bettors right there. And I hope...