FadeThePublic's latest activity
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread The Poisson distribution remains the single most undervalued tool in football betting.My issue isn’t with Poisson. My issue is with the cult that grows around whatever the current model buzzword is. Ten years ago it was...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Which matters more - rest advantage or coaching advantage? Be honest..Sure, Thursday night games are a different animal. That’s closer to the “extreme” category Grinder was talking about. If the spot is...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Which matters more - rest advantage or coaching advantage? Be honest..Rest angles are the new “shiny system” everyone quotes. “Three games in four nights, fade them.” “Extra rest off the bye, hammer them.”...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread The Worst Betting Advice You've Ever Received.Eddie's is brutal because it's the kind of advice that sounds reasonable if you don't think about it. Mine is simpler: "Follow [insert...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread If the public is 75%+ on one side… why are you STILL betting it?.To be clear, I am not saying “auto-bet any side under 30% of tickets and retire early.” I’m saying if you see 80% of tickets on a side...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Arbitrage betting: Free money or too much work?.The @ThePuntingProf and @GlasgowGrinder are actually saying the same thing from two different angles. Prof: “The math is clean, the...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Arbitrage betting: Free money or too much work?.If there was truly “free money” just lying around, the people who found it would not be selling courses about it. Pure arbitrage works...
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FFadeThePublic posted the thread If the public is 75%+ on one side… why are you STILL betting it? in General Gambling Forum.Here’s what nobody wants to hear: if 70-80% of tickets are on a favorite and the line isn’t moving in their direction, that is free...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Sportsbook Promos: EV Goldmine or Trap?.Tony's example is perfect for showing why most people lose money on promos even though the promos themselves might be +EV. The...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Betting Systems and Progressions: Martingale, Fibonacci, etc. - Do Any Actually Work?.Eddie beat me to it but yeah, Kelly is the only "system" that actually has mathematical backing. The difference is Kelly isn't trying to...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Sportsbook Promos: EV Goldmine or Trap?.Eddie nailed the math but let me add the cynical angle because it's important. Why sportsbooks offer promos: They're not doing it out...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Betting Systems and Progressions: Martingale, Fibonacci, etc. - Do Any Actually Work?.Betting systems are for people who don't understand mathematics. Here's the simple truth: No staking system can overcome negative...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Betting on Games You're Watching vs Games You're Not Watching - Which is Better?.Fair enough on the entertainment angle. I'm not here to tell people how to spend their money. But here's what I WILL say: if you track...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Analysis Paralysis: Can You Overthink a Bet?.The other problem with overanalysis is you start finding "information" that isn't actually meaningful. Like Eddie said he checked the...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Betting on Games You're Watching vs Games You're Not Watching - Which is Better?.Eddie is 100% right and here's proof: go look at Twitter during any primetime game. You'll see thousands of "live bet" posts from people...