ProfessorMJ
Professional Bettor
- Joined
- Aug 19, 2019
- Messages
- 406
- Reaction score
- 19
- Points
- 18
1. Introduction
Kyle Shanahan’s first two seasons as San Francisco’s head coach ended with 6-10 and 4-12 records. The team wildly exceeded expectations last year by finishing as the number one seed in the NFC.
The 49ers rolled pretty easily over the Vikings and the Packers to open the playoffs. However, the Super Bowl left a sour taste in their mouth after squandering a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter.
Can Shanahan’s squad make it back to the big game this season?
2. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown
2.1 Quarterbacks (QBs)
Prior to last year, Jimmy Garoppolo had never started more than five games in a season. He removed all doubts and proved he was definitely a starting NFL caliber quarterback.
Garoppolo was very efficient by completing 69% of his passes, while coming just 22 yards short of the 4,000 passing-yard mark. He also threw 27 TDs passes versus 13 interceptions.
He still has some game-manager tendencies, but he had huge performances too, including a 26-for-35 and 349 passing yards, 4 TDs and 1 pick in a wild 48-46 win in New Orleans. Sure, he had a great running game setting up his passing game, but he still delivered when he needed to (except in the Super Bowl where he couldn’t deliver the knockout punch to the Chiefs).
With one full year of experience in Kyle Shanahan’s system, Garoppolo should be more comfortable in year two.
Nick Mullens earned #2 duties last year, but he never saw the field since Garoppolo stayed healthy all year long. His only playing experience occurred in 2018 where he competed in eight games, completing 64% of his passes with a 13:10 TD:INT ratio, while averaging an impressive 285 passing yards per game. He’s an undrafted QB from Southern Miss.
Despite being a former third-rounder, C.J. Beathard lost the backup QB battle in camp last year. He got some playing time both in 2017 and 2018, where he got involved in six and seven games, respectively. His career completion rate is set at just 57% with 12 TDs and 13 interceptions. On average, he has thrown for 206 yards per contest. He is a more capable runner than Mullens, though.
2.2 Running Backs (RBs)
San Francisco’s backfield was a three-headed monster last year. The team picked up the second-most rushing yards in the league. Their running game was devastating.
Raheem Mostert led the team with 772 rushing yards. He had accumulated just 297 yards on the ground in the previous four years!
He became Kyle Shanahan’s favorite back during the Super Bowl run. His 220 rushing yards performance in the NFC Championship Game was the second-best postseason performance of all-time.
To me, Tevin Coleman is an overrated running back. First, let’s look at the yards-per-carry average of the team’s three leading backs: Mostert 5.6, Breida 5.1 and Coleman 4.0. That kind of average in such a well-blocked and well-schemed rushing attack is really disappointing. It also marked his career-low.
Coleman scored six TDs on the ground and one through the air. However, four of them came in Week #8 against the Panthers.
Breida was lightly used down the stretch last year. He seemed like the odd man out in a crowded backfield, and the team traded him to Miami during the draft.
The X factor is Jerick McKinnon. Remember him? If you don’t, that’s probably because he has not played a single down in two years.
After playing four years in Minnesota, he signed a lucrative contract with San Francisco in 2018. He tore his ACL during a team workout, ending his season. In the following year, he suffered a setback from his knee surgery and he missed on the team’s Super Bowl run.
He took a huge paycut this offseason (deservedly so) to stay with the team. He showed a good burst in his first two seasons with a 4.9 yards per rush average. He was used more often the next two years (racking up 539 and 570 rushing yards), which dropped his average down to just 3.6.
McKinnon is more dangerous as a pass catcher in open space. The Niners love rotating their running backs, so I expect McKinnon to be used more specifically on passing downs.
2.3 Wide Receivers (WRs)
Deebo Samuel’s rookie season was a resounding success. He caught 57 passes for 802 receiving yards and 3 TDs.
Shanahan had so much confidence in his abilities that he also gave him 14 rushing attempts. Samuel made the most out of those opportunities by scoring three touchdowns on the ground with a whopping 11.4 yards per rush average.
Samuel was an early second round pick out of South Carolina. All signs point towards him being a bargain pick.
The 49ers passing attack took a step forward after trading for Emmanuel Sanders. He did a very good job, despite fighting through a rib injury. Unfortunately, the team let him walk in free agency for cap reasons.
Marquise Goodwin is also gone. He has had an injury-riddled career. After four unsuccessful seasons in Buffalo, he had a breakout year in 2017 with a 56-962-2 receiving line. However, he got hurt again and fell down the depth chart in the two most recent seasons. He was dealt to the Eagles during the draft.
So who will be the team’s #2 WR then?
The first potential candidate is Kendrick Bourne. He’s a bit inconsistent, but he was one of Garoppolo’s favorite targets in the red zone. Over the past two seasons he has totaled nine TDs, while averaging 36 receptions and 423 receiving yards per year. He’s a good role player, but I’m not sure the undrafted young receiver can embrace the number two role.
The team drafted Brandon Aiyuk late in the first round of this year’s draft. He played just two years at Arizona State after transferring from Sierra College. He started just three games with the Sun Devils in 2018 before taking his game to another level last year where he hauled in 65 passes for 1,192 yards and 8 TDs.
Aiyuk is good at racking up yards after the catch, but needs to be more physical since making contested catches is not his forte. He is viewed as a potential WR3 in the NFL.
Dante Pettis took a huge step back last year. He only caught 11 passes all year.
What’s puzzling is the 2018 second-rounder finished his rookie season on a very high note. Indeed, over his final five meetings he posted a 20-359-4 receiving line, which would translate into 64-1149-13 over a full 16-game season.
Kyle Shanahan ended up criticizing him publicly at some point last year. The team is particularly upset at the mental aspect of his game. 2020 will be a critical season for him.
Jalen Hurd missed his entire rookie season due to a back injury. He’s more of a gadget player. For your information, he was selected in the 3rd round of the 2019 draft.
Travis Benjamin was signed as a free agent. He had a few good seasons with the Browns and the Chargers, but he has caught just 18 passes over the last two years. He’s more of a deep threat, but you have to wonder if he can still do it at 30 years old following a year where he had a quad injury.
Finally, can Trent Taylor have an impact? He was projected to be the team’s starting slot receiver entering the 2019 season, but a foot injury that required five surgeries cost him the season. The former fifth-rounder caught 43 and 26 passes in 2017 and 2018, respectively
2.4 Tight Ends (TEs)
George Kittle is as good as it gets. He is an amazing pass catcher, he is hard to bring down after the catch and he is a bone-crushing run blocker.
His receiving stats have been awesome for the second straight year. In both cases, he topped the 1,000 receiving-yard mark, while catching 88 and 85 passes. He also reached the end zone on five occasions in each of those two seasons.
He is also a very tough guy. He dealt with knee and ankle issues, while also playing through a torn labrum. Hopefully, he’s be fully healthy when the 2020 season begins.
Ross Dwelley took over as the starting TE when Kittle missed a couple of games. He did a decent job which included scoring two touchdowns, but the undrafted 25-year-old won’t be confused with Kittle anytime soon
2.5 Offensive Line (OL)
Weston Richburg is the favorite to land the starting job at the pivot, but Ben Garland will keep pushing him. Richburg missed a few games due to injuries and his play in his two seasons with the 49ers hasn’t been as good as it used to be with the Giants. He graded out as the number 25 center out of 37 qualifiers last year. Meanwhile, Garland has always been a backup, but he does a very sound job.
Left tackle Joe Staley was a true warrior for this organization. He spent his whole 13-year career in the Bay area and he was great in each of them. He announced his retirement on the same day that the team acquired Trent Williams via a trade.
Williams sat out the entire 2019 season after feuding with the Redskins. When he is on the field, he’s a great blindside protector. However, he has not played a complete 16-game season since 2013. And will he be at NFL speed right away after being out of football for a year and a half?
Mike McGlinchey is entering his third year as a pro at right tackle. He missed four games due to a knee injury. The former #9 overall pick out of Notre Dame has received above-average PFF marks in each of his first two seasons, finishing 35th out of 81 tackles in 2019.
Left guard Laken Tomlinson has missed just one game in the past three years. The 28-year-old and former first-rounder graded out as the number 20 guard out of 81 guys. His PFF marks have been remarkably stable over his entire five-year career.
Mike Person played all but two games as the starting right guard in 2019. The team released him during the offseason. He was about to play his age-32 campaign and provided “okay” play last season.
The team acquired Tom Compton, formerly of the Jets, a seven-year journeyman. Daniel Brunskill may have a better shot at earning the right guard starting job. Even though he lacks experience, he did a solid job filling in at LT, RT and RG last season.
2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE
When comparing the 2020 versus 2019 rosters, the only good news I see is at the QB position. Jimmy Garoppolo has a shot to take a leap in his second full season in Shanahan’s offense.
However, I see a possible downgrade at all remaining positions on offense.
The team lost Matt Breida, but will (hopefully) finally see Jerick McKinnon on the field. Even though Breida slowed down late last season, he’s less injury-prone than McKinnon and his yards-per-carry average is significantly higher. McKinnon is a bigger threat in the passing game, but overall I believe Breida is a more reliable player.
At wide receiver, losing Emmanuel Sanders and Marquise Goodwin leaves a glaring hole at the WR #2 spot behind Deebo Samuel. Who will step up? The team has a lot of unproven guys (Kendrick Bourne, Travis Benjamin, Dante Pettis, Jalen Hurd, Trent Taylor and rookie Brandon Aiyuk).
George Kittle is a monster. He graded out as the top tight end in the entire league last year, according to PFF grades. There is no room for improvement there.
Finally, on the offensive line, the team’s long-time starting left tackle Joe Staley decided to hang his cleats. Newly acquired Trent Williams certainly has the abilities to fill his shoes, but how will he play after being out of football for a year and a half?
Another source of concern pertains to the right guard spot, where Mike Person was released without any clear-cut replacement. Expect a dropoff in terms of quality of play at this position in 2020.
For these reasons, I don’t believe the 49ers offense has a good chance of finishing nearly as high as last year’s second place in terms of points scored. I foresee a middle-of-the-pack 2020 season from this unit.
Final call (2020 vs 2019): Moderate downgrade
Kyle Shanahan’s first two seasons as San Francisco’s head coach ended with 6-10 and 4-12 records. The team wildly exceeded expectations last year by finishing as the number one seed in the NFC.
The 49ers rolled pretty easily over the Vikings and the Packers to open the playoffs. However, the Super Bowl left a sour taste in their mouth after squandering a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter.
Can Shanahan’s squad make it back to the big game this season?
2. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown
2.1 Quarterbacks (QBs)
Prior to last year, Jimmy Garoppolo had never started more than five games in a season. He removed all doubts and proved he was definitely a starting NFL caliber quarterback.
Garoppolo was very efficient by completing 69% of his passes, while coming just 22 yards short of the 4,000 passing-yard mark. He also threw 27 TDs passes versus 13 interceptions.
He still has some game-manager tendencies, but he had huge performances too, including a 26-for-35 and 349 passing yards, 4 TDs and 1 pick in a wild 48-46 win in New Orleans. Sure, he had a great running game setting up his passing game, but he still delivered when he needed to (except in the Super Bowl where he couldn’t deliver the knockout punch to the Chiefs).
With one full year of experience in Kyle Shanahan’s system, Garoppolo should be more comfortable in year two.
Nick Mullens earned #2 duties last year, but he never saw the field since Garoppolo stayed healthy all year long. His only playing experience occurred in 2018 where he competed in eight games, completing 64% of his passes with a 13:10 TD:INT ratio, while averaging an impressive 285 passing yards per game. He’s an undrafted QB from Southern Miss.
Despite being a former third-rounder, C.J. Beathard lost the backup QB battle in camp last year. He got some playing time both in 2017 and 2018, where he got involved in six and seven games, respectively. His career completion rate is set at just 57% with 12 TDs and 13 interceptions. On average, he has thrown for 206 yards per contest. He is a more capable runner than Mullens, though.
2.2 Running Backs (RBs)
San Francisco’s backfield was a three-headed monster last year. The team picked up the second-most rushing yards in the league. Their running game was devastating.
Raheem Mostert led the team with 772 rushing yards. He had accumulated just 297 yards on the ground in the previous four years!
He became Kyle Shanahan’s favorite back during the Super Bowl run. His 220 rushing yards performance in the NFC Championship Game was the second-best postseason performance of all-time.
To me, Tevin Coleman is an overrated running back. First, let’s look at the yards-per-carry average of the team’s three leading backs: Mostert 5.6, Breida 5.1 and Coleman 4.0. That kind of average in such a well-blocked and well-schemed rushing attack is really disappointing. It also marked his career-low.
Coleman scored six TDs on the ground and one through the air. However, four of them came in Week #8 against the Panthers.
Breida was lightly used down the stretch last year. He seemed like the odd man out in a crowded backfield, and the team traded him to Miami during the draft.
The X factor is Jerick McKinnon. Remember him? If you don’t, that’s probably because he has not played a single down in two years.
After playing four years in Minnesota, he signed a lucrative contract with San Francisco in 2018. He tore his ACL during a team workout, ending his season. In the following year, he suffered a setback from his knee surgery and he missed on the team’s Super Bowl run.
He took a huge paycut this offseason (deservedly so) to stay with the team. He showed a good burst in his first two seasons with a 4.9 yards per rush average. He was used more often the next two years (racking up 539 and 570 rushing yards), which dropped his average down to just 3.6.
McKinnon is more dangerous as a pass catcher in open space. The Niners love rotating their running backs, so I expect McKinnon to be used more specifically on passing downs.
2.3 Wide Receivers (WRs)
Deebo Samuel’s rookie season was a resounding success. He caught 57 passes for 802 receiving yards and 3 TDs.
Shanahan had so much confidence in his abilities that he also gave him 14 rushing attempts. Samuel made the most out of those opportunities by scoring three touchdowns on the ground with a whopping 11.4 yards per rush average.
Samuel was an early second round pick out of South Carolina. All signs point towards him being a bargain pick.
The 49ers passing attack took a step forward after trading for Emmanuel Sanders. He did a very good job, despite fighting through a rib injury. Unfortunately, the team let him walk in free agency for cap reasons.
Marquise Goodwin is also gone. He has had an injury-riddled career. After four unsuccessful seasons in Buffalo, he had a breakout year in 2017 with a 56-962-2 receiving line. However, he got hurt again and fell down the depth chart in the two most recent seasons. He was dealt to the Eagles during the draft.
So who will be the team’s #2 WR then?
The first potential candidate is Kendrick Bourne. He’s a bit inconsistent, but he was one of Garoppolo’s favorite targets in the red zone. Over the past two seasons he has totaled nine TDs, while averaging 36 receptions and 423 receiving yards per year. He’s a good role player, but I’m not sure the undrafted young receiver can embrace the number two role.
The team drafted Brandon Aiyuk late in the first round of this year’s draft. He played just two years at Arizona State after transferring from Sierra College. He started just three games with the Sun Devils in 2018 before taking his game to another level last year where he hauled in 65 passes for 1,192 yards and 8 TDs.
Aiyuk is good at racking up yards after the catch, but needs to be more physical since making contested catches is not his forte. He is viewed as a potential WR3 in the NFL.
Dante Pettis took a huge step back last year. He only caught 11 passes all year.
What’s puzzling is the 2018 second-rounder finished his rookie season on a very high note. Indeed, over his final five meetings he posted a 20-359-4 receiving line, which would translate into 64-1149-13 over a full 16-game season.
Kyle Shanahan ended up criticizing him publicly at some point last year. The team is particularly upset at the mental aspect of his game. 2020 will be a critical season for him.
Jalen Hurd missed his entire rookie season due to a back injury. He’s more of a gadget player. For your information, he was selected in the 3rd round of the 2019 draft.
Travis Benjamin was signed as a free agent. He had a few good seasons with the Browns and the Chargers, but he has caught just 18 passes over the last two years. He’s more of a deep threat, but you have to wonder if he can still do it at 30 years old following a year where he had a quad injury.
Finally, can Trent Taylor have an impact? He was projected to be the team’s starting slot receiver entering the 2019 season, but a foot injury that required five surgeries cost him the season. The former fifth-rounder caught 43 and 26 passes in 2017 and 2018, respectively
2.4 Tight Ends (TEs)
George Kittle is as good as it gets. He is an amazing pass catcher, he is hard to bring down after the catch and he is a bone-crushing run blocker.
His receiving stats have been awesome for the second straight year. In both cases, he topped the 1,000 receiving-yard mark, while catching 88 and 85 passes. He also reached the end zone on five occasions in each of those two seasons.
He is also a very tough guy. He dealt with knee and ankle issues, while also playing through a torn labrum. Hopefully, he’s be fully healthy when the 2020 season begins.
Ross Dwelley took over as the starting TE when Kittle missed a couple of games. He did a decent job which included scoring two touchdowns, but the undrafted 25-year-old won’t be confused with Kittle anytime soon
2.5 Offensive Line (OL)
Weston Richburg is the favorite to land the starting job at the pivot, but Ben Garland will keep pushing him. Richburg missed a few games due to injuries and his play in his two seasons with the 49ers hasn’t been as good as it used to be with the Giants. He graded out as the number 25 center out of 37 qualifiers last year. Meanwhile, Garland has always been a backup, but he does a very sound job.
Left tackle Joe Staley was a true warrior for this organization. He spent his whole 13-year career in the Bay area and he was great in each of them. He announced his retirement on the same day that the team acquired Trent Williams via a trade.
Williams sat out the entire 2019 season after feuding with the Redskins. When he is on the field, he’s a great blindside protector. However, he has not played a complete 16-game season since 2013. And will he be at NFL speed right away after being out of football for a year and a half?
Mike McGlinchey is entering his third year as a pro at right tackle. He missed four games due to a knee injury. The former #9 overall pick out of Notre Dame has received above-average PFF marks in each of his first two seasons, finishing 35th out of 81 tackles in 2019.
Left guard Laken Tomlinson has missed just one game in the past three years. The 28-year-old and former first-rounder graded out as the number 20 guard out of 81 guys. His PFF marks have been remarkably stable over his entire five-year career.
Mike Person played all but two games as the starting right guard in 2019. The team released him during the offseason. He was about to play his age-32 campaign and provided “okay” play last season.
The team acquired Tom Compton, formerly of the Jets, a seven-year journeyman. Daniel Brunskill may have a better shot at earning the right guard starting job. Even though he lacks experience, he did a solid job filling in at LT, RT and RG last season.
2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE
When comparing the 2020 versus 2019 rosters, the only good news I see is at the QB position. Jimmy Garoppolo has a shot to take a leap in his second full season in Shanahan’s offense.
However, I see a possible downgrade at all remaining positions on offense.
The team lost Matt Breida, but will (hopefully) finally see Jerick McKinnon on the field. Even though Breida slowed down late last season, he’s less injury-prone than McKinnon and his yards-per-carry average is significantly higher. McKinnon is a bigger threat in the passing game, but overall I believe Breida is a more reliable player.
At wide receiver, losing Emmanuel Sanders and Marquise Goodwin leaves a glaring hole at the WR #2 spot behind Deebo Samuel. Who will step up? The team has a lot of unproven guys (Kendrick Bourne, Travis Benjamin, Dante Pettis, Jalen Hurd, Trent Taylor and rookie Brandon Aiyuk).
George Kittle is a monster. He graded out as the top tight end in the entire league last year, according to PFF grades. There is no room for improvement there.
Finally, on the offensive line, the team’s long-time starting left tackle Joe Staley decided to hang his cleats. Newly acquired Trent Williams certainly has the abilities to fill his shoes, but how will he play after being out of football for a year and a half?
Another source of concern pertains to the right guard spot, where Mike Person was released without any clear-cut replacement. Expect a dropoff in terms of quality of play at this position in 2020.
For these reasons, I don’t believe the 49ers offense has a good chance of finishing nearly as high as last year’s second place in terms of points scored. I foresee a middle-of-the-pack 2020 season from this unit.
Final call (2020 vs 2019): Moderate downgrade
