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Welcome Back Baseball

linesniper

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Happy Friday, Sports Bettors! It was nice to see baseball back and fan cheering in the stands. With baseball resuming we got a fun slate of NBA and MLB to keep you updated with.​

With that being said, here's a preview of what a typical report looks like:​


  • MLB News and Action​

  • MLB Analysis​

  • NBA Look Ahead

    Let's jump right in...​

MLB News and Analysis​

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World Series favorites Dodgers put up lackluster performance in 8-5 loss vs Rockies

If you happened to bet the Rockies +185, hats off to you. While German Marquez wasn't that impressive in his 2021 debut (6 walks, 2 strikeouts in 4 innings), at least he gave up only 1 earned run. Clayton Kershaw on the other hand has a multitude of issues to sort out, as he gave up 5 runs on 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings, while only striking out 2 batters. If you listened to my Bankroll Challenge video yesterday I mentioned that Kershaw's overall velocity from spring training is down 2 MPH from what it was in 2020. That's going to be a major problem for him and I'll be looking to bet against him until I see significant signs of improvement.

Rays outwill the Marlins in a tremendous pitcher's duel by a score of 1-0

The Rays stuck to what they do best, which is play an advanced game theory strategy of playing their best pitchers and hitters based upon the situation. Their offense didn't do much, but starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow threw a remarkable 6 inning 1-hitter while striking out 6. On the reverse side of the bump, Sandy Alcantara went 6 while striking out 7 and allowing only 2 hits. The Marlins have a really bad offense and are a clear candidate to target for unders early in the season.

Mets sign Francisco Lindor to 10 year, $340 million contract

This is a really bold move and shows a lot of faith from the Mets after a lackluster 2020 performance from Lindor where struggled mightily in terms of ISO and WRC+, basically meaning he hit for very little power. Furthermore, he showed an aversion to stealing bases relative to previous years, something he will need to bring back to demonstrate his overall potential. Hopefully the move to New York can revitalize him again as he has played at a very high level at various points in his career.​

Early look at today's MLB slate​

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First of all, I strongly suggest that everyone reading this follows someone on Twitter that is knowledgeable about weather as it pertains to baseball. This is not a personal endorsement for either individual, but I pay attention to Kevin Roth and Mark Paquette on there when it comes to MLB weather. Weather news truly does move lines quickly!

Back to the well with a Rays/Marlins under 7.5 -115

Ryan Yarborough and Pablo Lopez square off in a game where weather is of zero importance as long as the roof is closed. Coming off a 1-0 game in which there was very little bullpen use and a complete lack of spark from either offense, I'm going to stick with my beliefs here and keep firing these unders until the lines change or I'm proven wrong.

Marlins -103

One of the true inside tips you can receive for early season MLB betting is to pay strict attention to pitchers' velocity changes during spring training compared to the previous regular season. Pablo Lopez averaged around 93 mph last season with his fastball, but was touching 97 in spring training. I cannot understate how huge that is for a pitcher's success, and I'm backing Lopez to shut down the Rays here.

Dodgers/Rockies under 11.5 -107

Trevor Bauer is a legit Cy Young candidate and will be up against Antonio Senzatela, who admittedly isn't a very good pitcher, which is why the Dodgers are about -280 in the markets right now. What I'm interested in is that the weather is supposed to be in the high 50's with a small headwind. These little things matter quite a bit in Coors Field games and I have this one closer to 11, which may not seem like much but half a run is worth quite a bit when it comes to MLB totals.​

Quick look at NBA​

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Nuggets use a balance gameplan to defeat the Clippers on the road 101-94

What really stood out for me here is that Aaron Gordon played 39 minutes and put up a sneaky great box score line of 14/6/6 with 3 steals and 2 blocks. If they can incorporate him into the offense like this on a consistent basis while also getting that kind of effort from him defensively he might end up being the steal of the trade deadline. I still have my doubts about whether Gordon is a long term fit, but keep an eye on the Nuggets as they're +1800 to win it all.

Who can beat Rudy Gobert as the Defensive Player of the Year?

Gobert stands at -225 to win the award on DraftKings, with Ben Simmons at +200 and Myles Turner at +550. Giannis Antetokounmpo (the 2019-20 winner) is +3000. When it comes to these types of awards futures bets, it's more important to understand how the media thinks rather than who logically deserves the award. On paper it's somewhat justifiable to put Jimmy Butler or Nikola Jokic in the mix, but if Utah ends up holding on to the #1 seed while maintaining top 3 defensive efficiency, I think Gobert is a near lock to win the award.​

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Enjoy today's games and, as always...

Here's to making smarter, more profitable bets,

- RD

Red Dave
Analyst, Line Sniper​


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