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What are Expected Goals (xG)?
Expected Goals or (xG) is a statistical measure used to evaluate the quality of chances created and conceded by a team or player. It estimates the probability of a specific shot being scored based on the location and type of shot and assigns a value to each shot between 0 and 1.
How is xG calculated?
XG is calculated using data from a large number of shots and is based on the historical probability of a shot being scored from a specific location and situation. The higher the xG value of a shot, the more likely it is to be scored.
The variables that affect the likelihood of a goal being scored are:
Distance to the goal
Angle to the goal
One-on-one situation
Big chance
Body part (header or foot)
Type of assist (cross, pull-back etc)
A pattern of play (open play, direct free kick, throw-in etc.)
The amount of pressure they are under from opposition players
The goalkeeper’s position relative to the direct path of the shot to the centre of the goal
For example, a chance with an xG rating of 0.35 means that a player would be expected to score from it 35% of the time, or one-in-three chances. Similarly, a chance with an xG rating of 0.5 should be scored 50% of the time, and so on.
Some situations are unique and require independent modelling.
Penalties are assigned a fixed xG value based on their overall conversion rate (0.79 xG) , while direct kicks and headed chances have their own separate models based on specific situations. Set pieces and open-play situations are valued differently for headed chances.
(source: Pinnacle)
How can we use xG for betting?
Analyzing team and player performance: By analyzing the xG values of shots taken and faced by a team or player, it is possible to evaluate their performance and identify trends and patterns in their play style. xG can be used to identify teams that are consistently creating high-quality chances. By analyzing a team's xG per game, it is possible to spot teams that are creating a lot of chances that have a high probability of being converted into goals. Conversely, if a team has scored fewer goals than their xG suggests they should have, this could indicate that they are underperforming and are likely to improve in future matches.
Evaluating odds: By comparing the xG values of shots taken by a team with the odds offered by the bookmaker, it is possible to identify value bets. For example, if a team has a high xG but is being offered long odds to win a match, it may be a fair value bet.
Analyzing match statistics: In addition to analyzing xG values, it is also important to consider other match statistics when betting, such as a shot on target and possession. By analyzing these statistics in conjunction with xG, it is possible to get a more comprehensive understanding of a team or player’s performance and make more informed betting decisions. By analyzing a team's xG and xGA (expected goals against), it is possible to recognize which teams are strong at creating chances and which teams are strong at preventing chances. This information can be useful when analyzing a team's future performance and identifying potential betting opportunities.
Other x* measures
Expected goals for ( xGf)
Expected goals against (xGa)
Expected goals assisted (xA)
Expected points (xPts)
Expected Goals or (xG) is a statistical measure used to evaluate the quality of chances created and conceded by a team or player. It estimates the probability of a specific shot being scored based on the location and type of shot and assigns a value to each shot between 0 and 1.
How is xG calculated?
XG is calculated using data from a large number of shots and is based on the historical probability of a shot being scored from a specific location and situation. The higher the xG value of a shot, the more likely it is to be scored.
The variables that affect the likelihood of a goal being scored are:
Distance to the goal
Angle to the goal
One-on-one situation
Big chance
Body part (header or foot)
Type of assist (cross, pull-back etc)
A pattern of play (open play, direct free kick, throw-in etc.)
The amount of pressure they are under from opposition players
The goalkeeper’s position relative to the direct path of the shot to the centre of the goal
For example, a chance with an xG rating of 0.35 means that a player would be expected to score from it 35% of the time, or one-in-three chances. Similarly, a chance with an xG rating of 0.5 should be scored 50% of the time, and so on.
Some situations are unique and require independent modelling.
Penalties are assigned a fixed xG value based on their overall conversion rate (0.79 xG) , while direct kicks and headed chances have their own separate models based on specific situations. Set pieces and open-play situations are valued differently for headed chances.

(source: Pinnacle)
How can we use xG for betting?
Analyzing team and player performance: By analyzing the xG values of shots taken and faced by a team or player, it is possible to evaluate their performance and identify trends and patterns in their play style. xG can be used to identify teams that are consistently creating high-quality chances. By analyzing a team's xG per game, it is possible to spot teams that are creating a lot of chances that have a high probability of being converted into goals. Conversely, if a team has scored fewer goals than their xG suggests they should have, this could indicate that they are underperforming and are likely to improve in future matches.
Evaluating odds: By comparing the xG values of shots taken by a team with the odds offered by the bookmaker, it is possible to identify value bets. For example, if a team has a high xG but is being offered long odds to win a match, it may be a fair value bet.
Analyzing match statistics: In addition to analyzing xG values, it is also important to consider other match statistics when betting, such as a shot on target and possession. By analyzing these statistics in conjunction with xG, it is possible to get a more comprehensive understanding of a team or player’s performance and make more informed betting decisions. By analyzing a team's xG and xGA (expected goals against), it is possible to recognize which teams are strong at creating chances and which teams are strong at preventing chances. This information can be useful when analyzing a team's future performance and identifying potential betting opportunities.
Other x* measures
Expected goals for ( xGf)
Expected goals against (xGa)
Expected goals assisted (xA)
Expected points (xPts)