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ProfessorMJ

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Written Tuesday November 17th, 2020 at 1 p.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)

We got back on the winning track with a 2-1-2 record with our picks against the spread (ATS) last week.

If not for a miraculous Hail Mary pass in the final seconds by the Cards, and Nick Chubb giving himself up at Houston’s one-yard line instead of scoring the touchdown, we would have enjoyed a nice 4-1 ATS record.

The top pick, the Steelers -3.5 in the first half, was an easy winner.

Let’s follow up with another strong week, shall we?

In Week 11, I’ve got more plays than usual: 6 official picks and 3 leans. Enjoy!

PICK #1 (4 STARS): TENNESSEE TITANS +6.5 AT BALTIMORE RAVENS

The Titans are the typical team that I feel like you should bet when they are established as underdogs, but that you want to fade when they are favorites. They can beat the best teams in the NFL, but they are also subject to lose to weaker ones.

As a matter of fact, over their last seven road games facing a team with a winning record, Tennessee holds a nice 6-1 ATS record.

Meanwhile, Baltimore has a scary 1-7 ATS record following a straight up loss and shows a 5-13 ATS record over their most recent 18 games as home favorites.

The one thing that worries me, though, is the revenge factor. The Ravens were ousted by the Titans in last year’s playoffs, so Baltimore will be looking for payback.

Still, I’m backing Tennessee here. They are benefiting from three additional days of rest after playing last Thursday. They have also been at home on six of the past seven weeks, which means they did not have to travel very often.

PICK #2 (4 STARS): ATLANTA FALCONS +5 AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

I’m pretty sure this line will drop until kickoff. The closing spread might end up being 3.5 or 4.

Three much publicized epic fourth quarter collapses by the Falcons have them sitting on a 3-6 record, which could easily be 6-3 instead.

I like how they have performed recently by winning three of their past four matchups. We would be talking about a four-game winning streak if not for the late Detroit Lions comeback a few weeks ago.

Atlanta is also coming off its bye week and they are likely to get wide receiver Calvin Ridley back on the field. New Orleans’ run defense is solid, but Atlanta’s strength is through the air anyway. I believe Matt Ryan and company can move the ball against this defense.

Meanwhile, the Saints will be without Drew Brees at quarterback. Jameis Winston is expected to take over, unless head coach Sean Payton decides to go with Taysom Hill, which would surprise me. I thought the Winston signing was a smart move during the offseason, but he looked shaky when he replaced Brees last week. He might need some time to get up to playing speed and I doubt the offense will be firing on all cylinders right away.

The Falcons have beaten the spread on only one occasion in the past five meeting with New Orleans, but they are 7-1 ATS as road underdogs recently. Also note that the Saints are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as home favorites.

Picks #3 to #6, as well as the 3 leans, can be found in my weekly YouTube video which can be found here.
 
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