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The truth about betting systems

BgFutbol

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Not only do gambling systems flop to beat casino games with a house advantage, they can’t even dent it. Roulette balls and dice simply have no memory. Each spin in roulette and every throw in craps is self-determining of all past actions. In the short run you can mug yourself into thinking a betting method works, by jeopardizing a lot to win a tiny. But, in the extended run no gambling system can endure the test of time. The more you play, the ratio of cash lost to cash bet will get nearer to the expectation for that game.

In the many years I have seen thousands of believers in betting systems. Their confidence surpasses spiritual levels. But, in all things, the extra ludicrous a belief is the more stubbornly it tends to be held. Bettors have been looking for a gambling system that works for hundreds of eons, and yet the gaming clubs are still here.

Bettor's Myth
The main betting myth is that an event that has not occurred lately becomes overdue and more possible to happen. This is recognized as the “bettor’s myth.” Thousands of bettors have developed betting systems that try to exploit the bettor’s myth by betting the opposite way of fresh outcomes. For instance, waiting for three reds in roulette and then staking on black. None of it works.

A common bettors’ myth named “the doctrine of the maturity of the chances” (or “Monte Carlo fallacy”) incorrectly accepts that each play in a game of chance is not self-determining of the others and that a sequence of results of one sort should be balanced in the short run by other likelihoods. A number of “systems” have been created by bettors based largely on this myth; casinos are pleased to encourage the usage of such systems and to exploit any bettor’s negligence of the strict rules of likelihood and independent plays.

No gambling system can change an unfair game into a lucrative initiative.

The amount of ‘winning’ gambling systems, the propagation of myths and misconceptions about such systems, and the uncountable people trusting, spreading, worshiping, protecting, and swearing by such systems are mass. Gambling systems constitute one of the oldest misconceptions of betting history.



The Martingale
Martingale is basically when a player doubles his/her bet after a loss. This system is usually played with an even cash game such as the red/black bet in roulette or the pass/don’t pass bet in craps and is known as the Martingale. The idea is that by doubling your stake after a lost bet, you would constantly win sufficient to cover all previous losses plus one unit. For example if a bettor starts at $1 and loses four wagers in a row, winning on the next one, he would have lost $1+$2+$4+$8 = $15 on the four losing bets and gained $16 on the fifth bet. The losses were returned and he had a profit of $1. The tricky thing is that it is easier to miss several bets in a row and run out of gambling cash after you’ve doubled it all away.

Losing systems
The web is full of persons selling gambling systems with promises of thrashing the casino at games of luck. Persons who sell these schemes are simply trying to win money. Under no conditions should you waste money on any betting system. Every time one has been put to a computer simulation it was unsuccessful and presented the same ratio of losses to cash bet as flat gambling. If you inquire a system salesman about this you probably will get a reply such as, “In real life noone plays lots of trials in the casino.” You’re probable to also receive that his/her method works in real life, but not when used together with a computer replication. It is remarkable that specialists use pcs to model real life problems in just about every field of training, yet when it comes to gambling methods computer analysis becomes “valueless and untrustworthy,” as the salesman of one system put it. In any event, such an excuse failures the point; the PC runs billions of simulations simply to prove that a method is unreliable. If it won’t work on a PC, it won’t work in the casino.

Betting systems have been around for as long as betting has. No method has ever been verified to work. I know that system salesmen go from retailing one kind of system to another. It is a muddy business by which they rip-off ideas from each other, and are always trying to reuse old systems as something new.

System sellers usually promise absurd gains. For instance, even with just a 1% advantage on an even cash bet, it would not be hard to parlay $100 into $100 000 by betting in proportion to bankroll.
What is your take on this?
 

Vocelov

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There is no betting system that can beat a gambling game where each possible outcome can be mathematically calculated. This includes games such as roulette and other casino games. In such cases the casino has already factored in their profits when they have set the odds.

For example, betting on red or black in European roulette has odds of 2.00 which implies a probability of 50%. However, the real probability of you winning the bet is 48.6% because of the green zero. In American roulette it's even lower. This means that in the long term this type of bet will always lose you money. The principle is the same with any betting game where you can definitely say what the chance is your selection to win. The casino will always offer you odds that imply a probability which is higher than the actual probability of you winning the bet - this is how they make their profit.

With sports betting though, it's different. The bookmakers will again include their profit commission in each market, but in setting the odds for the different outcomes, they provide opportunities for shrewd bettors that closely follow a specific sport or league.

The reason is that the outcome of a sports event is influenced by many variables - form, injuries, luck, crowd, referees, weather conditions etc. It's not black-or-white. This means that from time to time, bookies will make inaccurate assessments by overpricing certain selections. In such cases you've got a value situation. Exploiting these situations is what will bring you money in the long run.

A quick example - a bookie prices the away team in a football match to win at odds of 3.50 mostly based on standings and recent form. However, you've watched this team's most recent matches and you know they've been unlucky to record their recent bad form. Thus, you assess their chance of winning the match to be 35% for example. The fair odds for such a chance are 2.85. This means the bookie is offering you higher odds than the ones you believe they should fairly offer you. You should bet on such opportunities every time.
 

A_Skywalker

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The reason is that the outcome of a sports event is influenced by many variables - form, injuries, luck, crowd, referees, weather conditions etc. It's not black-or-white. This means that from time to time, bookies will make inaccurate assessments by overpricing certain selections. In such cases you've got a value situation. Exploiting these situations is what will bring you money in the long run.

A quick example - a bookie prices the away team in a football match to win at odds of 3.50 mostly based on standings and recent form. However, you've watched this team's most recent matches and you know they've been unlucky to record their recent bad form. Thus, you assess their chance of winning the match to be 35% for example. The fair odds for such a chance are 2.85. This means the bookie is offering you higher odds than the ones you believe they should fairly offer you. You should bet on such opportunities every time.

Pretty much this. You can win from over/underpriced teams/players. Also mistakes from bookmakers. Generally sports betting has better chances of winning you money, as long as you know what you are doing.
 

bribery21

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Casino gameplay is only luck, sports betting has a skill attached to it. I am tempted sometimes to try my luck at online casinos but for now I am only sports bettor.
 

Vocelov

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Casino gameplay is only luck, sports betting has a skill attached to it. I am tempted sometimes to try my luck at online casinos but for now I am only sports bettor.

Indeed, playing at a casino sometimes can be really fun, but that's what it should be regarded as. You need to go into the casino with the full knowledge you are doing it as an entertainment activity, not with the expectation that you are going to win lots of money. And if you go with friends at a nice casino you can have a really great night. Online casinos I can't comment on though, to me that is pointless and a sure way of losing money but not having fun with friends.

Regarding sports betting, again you should be prepared to lose your funds in case the bets don't come off (it's called betting for a reason after all) but unlike casinos, following a good strategy and making value bets continuously can bring you nice profit month after month.
 

Giresse

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hi guys, I once traded forex and used the martingale strategy and the results were dissastrous, i've never tried it in betting but from experience i think it's definitely a no go area especially for beginners
 

Sheva07

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hi guys, I once traded forex and used the martingale strategy and the results were dissastrous, i've never tried it in betting but from experience i think it's definitely a no go area especially for beginners
Totally agree with you
 

Robin Banks

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Hi all, not sure if anyone here in retested in arbitrage betting but I’m involved with a system called Jubilee Ace . Give you 1-6% Return every 5-6 days anyone interested give me a shout and I can talk you through it
 

Osesellowe

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Yeah. I know this truth about betting. A lot of the problems may cause the people that are looking for the necessary profit.
 

Osesellowe

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I want to continue my story about betting. So, a lot of the problems may cause the people that are looking for the necessary profit. Personally, I tried to gamble on the illegal betting website. I didn't know that the website that I use is a cheat, so I got robbed.. However, after that situation, I was looking for a legit casino which would be more respectful to the humankind :) So, I came across the online casino EDIT: REMOVED that helped me with providing customer support channels and even exclusive promotions that are very profitable due to the difficulties in the world..
 
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