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The Griff Report - CFP Semifinal Saturday


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Dec 31, 2022
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CFP Semifinals​


IOWA -2.5 – This may be a low scoring game and the Wildcats are my home team, but this year without Levis playing the offense really seemed to struggle. I’m not wanting to bet against myself so I’m just laying off this and watching the UK and U of L game at the same time. As for that matter I know U of L has struggled in the win column this year and the Wildcats are sure to bounce back after having Mizzou give us trouble with the press and the snow bird was at the rim waiting for a free layup all night long. I still like Louisville to cover as 24 is just one of those they can win put how many days do you beat your instate rival by 25? Louisville +24

Michigan -7.5
– Two years ago there was doubt about whether Harbaugh would get this team to even beat Ohio State, win the Big Ten, make the playoffs or give up and go back to pro’s. Last year they made the playoff’s before losing decisively to Georgia. This year they ran the regular season gauntlet beating Ohio State again in a blowout. The strength of this team 243 yards a game on the ground and the defense allowing only 83 a game on the ground. That means they are winning the trenches and even when they have the injury at tailback that just gives someone else his chance be a star when the line is being controlled. The secondary allowing just 191.8 in the air. 13.4 points allowed for the year.

They face a surprise TCU team who lost only to K State. They put up the same number as the Bulldogs 40 a game for the year. They were only held under 20 once this year that was the Texas game. You would expect the Wolverines to try the same coverages schemes and the Michigan run attack to look to control the clock and cut the number of opportunities down for the Horned Frogs. TCU does run for over 200 a game as well throwing for 273 and while putting up 40 they have only given up 25 a game.

I think this game is decided by the Michigan defense, just like his old team the 49ers are still doing while it seems that a run based offense may have trouble winning big to some Michigan had only two games of win by 7 or less. The ball control sometimes leads to long drives and if the Michigan defense win third down all night then back to back long drives eat quarters and can really make some teams abandon the balanced play call. While I would really love to not give up a whole 7.5 points you can wait on live bet and see if TCU stays in the game and the number drops but I don’t think Michigan is going to play with them. I’m not calling for a blowout but we have seen some one sided games in these semi-finals and I would be really surprised to see the Wolverines not leave with a victory and my pick for this game is Michigan -7.5. I know a win and cover is asking for a lot and I have seen a lot more Michigan this year than TCU. I know there is more consensus money on the Horned Frogs and a line move which has been correct in the recent years in these games and if I’m wrong in this one its just because I didn’t watch TCU enough this year to have a good read on them. My prediction 34-20 Michigan.


Ohio State +6 – Entering this season many thought this was the likely Championship matchup. The Buckeyes only loss left them a lot of time to fix whatever went wrong that day. While both defenses hold opponents under 20, OSU puts up 44.5, UGA scores 39.2 a game. The total at 63 for these two strong defenses means we are in for a higher scoring game than what these teams defensive average for the year. I think that favors the Buckeyes these two teams are different matchup than any Georgia has faced the past two years. The Bulldogs may keep on winning but they had some games like the Mizzou game where they looked vulnerable. I think if Day is to meet expectations the Buckeyes need to win this one, if they just keep it close then they may or may not cover as Georgia could very well win by TD. I may be wrong here but I think after the loss to Michigan and getting another chance the the Buckeyes show up and cover, and I think the number for them to win is about 35, if the Buckeyes can get in the mid 30’s they stand a great chance of pulling the upset. My prediction 32-28 Ohio State and incase your gonna tell me later I know its ok for me to be wrong because its the players, coaches and ref’s that determine this I’m just a fan of the game.
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