Mr_Mush
New Bettor
- Joined
- Aug 17, 2017
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Hi all,
This is my first post here. Thanks for having me as a member!!
In short, I'm trying to understand what exactly 'implied probability' is and how to convert that value to a basic 'probability of the team winning regardless of the sportsbook making money' value.
Say I take some American odds betting line, and convert it to an 'implied probability'. So far so good.
Is there any way I can look at the sportsbooks' probability they've set, and instead convert it directly to some probability that the team will actually win?
Another way of asking this -- how can I remove the juice from the 'implied probability' calculation? Is this even possible?
I'm trying to build a model and I'd like to see how it performs vs the betting lines, but without the built-in profit of the sportsbook.
I hope this makes sense. Thanks everyone!!
This is my first post here. Thanks for having me as a member!!

In short, I'm trying to understand what exactly 'implied probability' is and how to convert that value to a basic 'probability of the team winning regardless of the sportsbook making money' value.
Say I take some American odds betting line, and convert it to an 'implied probability'. So far so good.
Is there any way I can look at the sportsbooks' probability they've set, and instead convert it directly to some probability that the team will actually win?
Another way of asking this -- how can I remove the juice from the 'implied probability' calculation? Is this even possible?
I'm trying to build a model and I'd like to see how it performs vs the betting lines, but without the built-in profit of the sportsbook.
I hope this makes sense. Thanks everyone!!
