• Guest, Read the rules. The Rules are simple. Don't spam. Be nice to the people here. If you own a betting site you can advertise it in Betting picks or Personal Threads(But to post a link a user should have at least 3 posts)

NFL Player Props (by stats university professor)

ProfessorMJ

Professional Bettor
Joined
Aug 19, 2019
Messages
397
Reaction score
19
Points
18
NFL PLAYER PROPS (WEEK #7)
BY PROFESSOR MJ
University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.

I am going to start sharing my picks on NFL player props!

How are the picks made?

They are based on a mix of two things:
  • Player projections made by reliable websites (I am a member of some paid sites who provide great info about the NFL)
  • My own judgment

So basically, I compare the lines posted by bookies with the player projections I obtain from paid websites.

If there is a fairly big difference between the two, and the pick also makes sense to me, I am betting it!

IMPORTANT REMARK: The odds matter a lot! I do not recommend betting those player props if your bookie has odds that differ quite a bit from those stated below.

For example, if I bet at +140 and your bookie offers the same prop at +115, stay away!

Without further ado, here are the plays I made with Pinnacle at 8 PM Eastern Time on Friday October 18:

PICK #1: Devonta Freeman over 3.5 receptions (at +140 or 2.40)
PICK #2: Brandin Cooks under 4.5 receptions (at -107 or 1.93)
PICK #3: Leonard Fournette over 4.5 receptions (at +122 or 2.22)
PICK #4: Jacoby Brissett over 1.5 TD passes (at +131 or 2.31)
PICK #5: Case Keenum under 213.5 passing yards (at -116 or 1.86)
PICK #6: Jason Sanders under 6.5 kicking points (at -105 or 1.95)
PICK #7: Julio Jones under 5.5 receptions (at +121 or 2.21)
PICK #8: Matt Ryan to throw an interception (at -107 or 1.93)


I'll keep track of the record in the following weeks.

Thanks for reading!

Professor MJ
 

ProfessorMJ

Professional Bettor
Joined
Aug 19, 2019
Messages
397
Reaction score
19
Points
18
We went 5-3 on the player props yesterday, which was good for a 1.98 unit profit.

I've got 4 good ones for the Monday Nighters between the Pats and the Jets:

PICK #1: Demaryius Thomas over 3.5 receptions (at +115 or 2.15)
PICK #2: Tom Brady under 289.5 passing yards (at -124 or 1.81)
PICK #3: Jakobi Meyers under 2.5 receptions (at +110 or 2.10)
PICK #4: James White under 5.5 receptions (at -110 or 1.91)


Good luck!

Professor MJ
 

ProfessorMJ

Professional Bettor
Joined
Aug 19, 2019
Messages
397
Reaction score
19
Points
18
NFL PLAYER PROPS - WEEK #8

Player proposition bets went 6-6 last week.

I am very hopeful we can crush it this week!

The odds stated below are from Pinnacle at 2 PM Eastern Time on Thursday October 24:

PICK #1: Paul Richardson under 2.5 receptions (at -114 or 1.88)
PICK #2: Dan Bailey over 7.5 kicking points (at -122 or 1.82)
PICK #3: Kyle Allen over 0.5 interceptions (at -141 or 1.71)
PICK #4: Andy Dalton under 1.5 TD passes (at -130 or 1.77)
PICK #5: Trey Burton under 2.5 receptions (at -112 or 1.89)
PICK #6: Tarik Cohen over 3.5 receptions (at +119 or 2.19)
PICK #7: Gardner Minshew under 243.5 passing yards (at -115 or 1.87)
PICK #8: Derek Carr under 262.5 passing yards (at -116 or 1.86)
PICK #9: Russell Wilson under 267.5 passing yards (at -114 or 1.88)
PICK #10: Chris Godwin under 0.5 TD receptions (at -130 or 1.77)
PICK #11: Derrick Henry over 66.5 rushing yards (at -112 or 1.89)
PICK #12: Jacoby Brissett over 1.5 TD passes (at +124 or 2.24)
PICK #13: T.Y. Hilton over 4.5 receptions (at -153 or 1.65)


Let's beat those bookies!

Professor MJ
 

ProfessorMJ

Professional Bettor
Joined
Aug 19, 2019
Messages
397
Reaction score
19
Points
18
NFL PLAYER PROPS (WEEK #9)

Sorry I could not post them last weekend because I went on a trip to Buffalo. I barely had enough time to release my YouTube video presenting those picks.

Here they were (you can check my YT video if you need proof that I'm not cheating!):

  • PICK #1: Melvin Gordon over 40.5 rushing yards (at -122 or 1.82) (WIN)
  • PICK #2: DeAndre Hopkins over 6.5 receptions (at -107 or 1.93) (WIN)
  • PICK #3: Mark Walton over 2.5 receptions (at -140 or 1.714) (WIN)
  • PICK #4: Russell Wilson under 264.5 passing yards (at -121 or 1.83) (LOSS)
  • PICK #5: Taylor Gabriel under 2.5 receptions (at +133 or 2.33) (LOSS)
  • PICK #6: Tarik Cohen over 2.5 receptions (at -180 or 1.556) (LOSS)
  • PICK #7: Mitch Trubisky under 235.5 passing yards (at -120 or 1.833) (WIN)
  • PICK #8: Odell Beckham over 4.5 receptions (at +103 or 2.03) (WIN)

Thus far in 2019: 18-15 record (profit = +1.85 units)

NFL PLAYER PROPS (WEEK #10)

  • PICK #1: Hunter Henry over 65.5 receiving yards (at -110 or 1.91 with MyBookie.ag)
  • PICK #2: Keenan Allen over 68.5 receiving yards (at -120 or 1.83 with Bet365)
  • PICK #3: Philip Rivers under 314.5 passing yards (at -120 or 1.83 with Bet365)
  • PICK #4: Derek Carr under 34.5 passing attempts (at -115 or 1.87 with MyBookie.ag)

More to come on Sunday games!

Professor MJ
 
Top