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NFL Player Props (by stats university professor)

ProfessorMJ

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NFL PLAYER PROPS (WEEK #7)
BY PROFESSOR MJ
University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.

I am going to start sharing my picks on NFL player props!

How are the picks made?

They are based on a mix of two things:
  • Player projections made by reliable websites (I am a member of some paid sites who provide great info about the NFL)
  • My own judgment

So basically, I compare the lines posted by bookies with the player projections I obtain from paid websites.

If there is a fairly big difference between the two, and the pick also makes sense to me, I am betting it!

IMPORTANT REMARK: The odds matter a lot! I do not recommend betting those player props if your bookie has odds that differ quite a bit from those stated below.

For example, if I bet at +140 and your bookie offers the same prop at +115, stay away!

Without further ado, here are the plays I made with Pinnacle at 8 PM Eastern Time on Friday October 18:

PICK #1: Devonta Freeman over 3.5 receptions (at +140 or 2.40)
PICK #2: Brandin Cooks under 4.5 receptions (at -107 or 1.93)
PICK #3: Leonard Fournette over 4.5 receptions (at +122 or 2.22)
PICK #4: Jacoby Brissett over 1.5 TD passes (at +131 or 2.31)
PICK #5: Case Keenum under 213.5 passing yards (at -116 or 1.86)
PICK #6: Jason Sanders under 6.5 kicking points (at -105 or 1.95)
PICK #7: Julio Jones under 5.5 receptions (at +121 or 2.21)
PICK #8: Matt Ryan to throw an interception (at -107 or 1.93)


I'll keep track of the record in the following weeks.

Thanks for reading!

Professor MJ
 

ProfessorMJ

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We went 5-3 on the player props yesterday, which was good for a 1.98 unit profit.

I've got 4 good ones for the Monday Nighters between the Pats and the Jets:

PICK #1: Demaryius Thomas over 3.5 receptions (at +115 or 2.15)
PICK #2: Tom Brady under 289.5 passing yards (at -124 or 1.81)
PICK #3: Jakobi Meyers under 2.5 receptions (at +110 or 2.10)
PICK #4: James White under 5.5 receptions (at -110 or 1.91)


Good luck!

Professor MJ
 

ProfessorMJ

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NFL PLAYER PROPS - WEEK #8

Player proposition bets went 6-6 last week.

I am very hopeful we can crush it this week!

The odds stated below are from Pinnacle at 2 PM Eastern Time on Thursday October 24:

PICK #1: Paul Richardson under 2.5 receptions (at -114 or 1.88)
PICK #2: Dan Bailey over 7.5 kicking points (at -122 or 1.82)
PICK #3: Kyle Allen over 0.5 interceptions (at -141 or 1.71)
PICK #4: Andy Dalton under 1.5 TD passes (at -130 or 1.77)
PICK #5: Trey Burton under 2.5 receptions (at -112 or 1.89)
PICK #6: Tarik Cohen over 3.5 receptions (at +119 or 2.19)
PICK #7: Gardner Minshew under 243.5 passing yards (at -115 or 1.87)
PICK #8: Derek Carr under 262.5 passing yards (at -116 or 1.86)
PICK #9: Russell Wilson under 267.5 passing yards (at -114 or 1.88)
PICK #10: Chris Godwin under 0.5 TD receptions (at -130 or 1.77)
PICK #11: Derrick Henry over 66.5 rushing yards (at -112 or 1.89)
PICK #12: Jacoby Brissett over 1.5 TD passes (at +124 or 2.24)
PICK #13: T.Y. Hilton over 4.5 receptions (at -153 or 1.65)


Let's beat those bookies!

Professor MJ
 

ProfessorMJ

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NFL PLAYER PROPS (WEEK #9)

Sorry I could not post them last weekend because I went on a trip to Buffalo. I barely had enough time to release my YouTube video presenting those picks.

Here they were (you can check my YT video if you need proof that I'm not cheating!):

  • PICK #1: Melvin Gordon over 40.5 rushing yards (at -122 or 1.82) (WIN)
  • PICK #2: DeAndre Hopkins over 6.5 receptions (at -107 or 1.93) (WIN)
  • PICK #3: Mark Walton over 2.5 receptions (at -140 or 1.714) (WIN)
  • PICK #4: Russell Wilson under 264.5 passing yards (at -121 or 1.83) (LOSS)
  • PICK #5: Taylor Gabriel under 2.5 receptions (at +133 or 2.33) (LOSS)
  • PICK #6: Tarik Cohen over 2.5 receptions (at -180 or 1.556) (LOSS)
  • PICK #7: Mitch Trubisky under 235.5 passing yards (at -120 or 1.833) (WIN)
  • PICK #8: Odell Beckham over 4.5 receptions (at +103 or 2.03) (WIN)

Thus far in 2019: 18-15 record (profit = +1.85 units)

NFL PLAYER PROPS (WEEK #10)

  • PICK #1: Hunter Henry over 65.5 receiving yards (at -110 or 1.91 with MyBookie.ag)
  • PICK #2: Keenan Allen over 68.5 receiving yards (at -120 or 1.83 with Bet365)
  • PICK #3: Philip Rivers under 314.5 passing yards (at -120 or 1.83 with Bet365)
  • PICK #4: Derek Carr under 34.5 passing attempts (at -115 or 1.87 with MyBookie.ag)

More to come on Sunday games!

Professor MJ
 
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