ProfessorMJ
Professional Bettor
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- Aug 19, 2019
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Many sportsbooks are offering the possibility of betting who will win the MVP title in the NFL this year. In this article, I will unveil 6 players whose odds represent good value, in my opinion.
In order for a player to make my list, he had to meet two conditions:
• Condition #1: There has to be one online sportsbook whose line on this specific player is significantly higher than other bookies.
• Condition #2: I believe the player in question does hold a reasonable chance of becoming the 2020 MVP.
Before we dive into the candidates, here is a vital statistic to be aware of:
Over the past 30 years, the MVP award was won by:
24 quarterbacks (80%) and 6 running backs (20%).
Keep that in mind when making your pick.
POTENTIAL MVP #1: Russell Wilson, QB, SEA
Best odds: +1400 at BetOnline.ag (i.e. 15.0 in decimal format)
Other online bookies: +580 (Pinnacle), +800 (William Hill), +800 (DraftKings), +700 (FanDuel), +700 (10Bet), +1000 (Jazz), +600 (bwin), +600 (Intertops), +650 (Bet365).
If not for Lamar Jackson’s heroics, Wilson would have won the MVP title in 2019. As a matter of fact, ProFootballFocus named him the MVP last year. He was spectacular with a 66% completion rate, a 31-to-5 TD-to-INT ratio, 4,100 passing yards and 342 more on the ground (while adding 3 rushing TDs).
His TD-to-INT ratio has been extraordinary, especially over the past three seasons. In this time frame, he has thrown 100 touchdowns while getting intercepted just 23 times. Compare that to Jameis Winston who had 30 picks last year alone!
Wilson has a couple of good wideouts to throw to: Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. The latter took huge leap towards the end of his rookie season, including 160 receiving yards in a playoff game.
At tight end, Will Dissly will be back after playing just six games last year. The organization also signed veteran Greg Olsen. I know, I know, he must be close to 75 years old, but he still caught 52 passes from awful QBs in Carolina last season.
At the running back position, the team still has Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny. That being said, Penny will probably miss the first six games, but Seattle grabbed Carlos Hyde. Don’t forget he racked up over 1,000 yards on the ground last year with the Texans.
As you can see above, the vast majority of sportsbook have posted odds between +600 and +800 on Wilson to win the MVP title. At +1400, we are getting a bargain, especially considering the quality of the player.
POTENTIAL MVP #2: Matthew Stafford, QB, DET
Best odds: +6600 at William Hill (i.e. 67.0 in decimal format)
Other online bookies: +2584 (Pinnacle), +4000 (DraftKings), +4400 (FanDuel), +2500 (BetOnline), +4800 (10Bet), +5000 (Jazz), +5000 (bwin), +5000 (Intertops), +5000 (Bet365).
This guy is underrated because he plays for a small-market team who has been in the bottom of the standings for a long time. But don’t sleep on him.
He’s been very consistent over the years. Over the past five seasons, he has thrown 125 TD passes versus 49 interceptions. His completion rate hovers around 65% every year.
Last year, he was quietly on pace for 38 TDs, 10 picks and 5,000 passing yards! However, he got hurt and missed the second half of the season. It was the first time he missed a game in eight years, which shows how durable he is.
He has a solid trio of WRs with Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola. Golladay is another very underrated NFL player, in my opinion. Did you know he scored 11 TDS and amassed close to 1,200 receiving yards, despite catching balls from David Blough and Jeff Driskell for half the season?
Rookie tight ends tend to struggle, and that’s what happened to T.J. Hockenson. The former #8 overall pick from the 2019 draft is ready to burst onto the scene.
At running back, Kerryon Johnson was already a good option to have on your squad, but the team drafted D’Andre Swift out of Georgia. That will be a very nice duo in the backfield.
The odds on Stafford to be the 2019 MVP vary between +2500 and +5000. I trust Pinnacle’s line accuracy a lot, and their odds on Stafford are +2584. Thefore, grabbing +6600 at William Hill sounds like a wise choice.
POTENTIAL MVP #3: Josh Allen, QB, BUF
Best odds: +6000 at DraftKings (i.e. 61.0 in decimal format)
Other online bookies: +2939 (Pinnacle), +4000 (William Hill), +3800 (FanDuel), +2000 (BetOnline), +5000 (10Bet), +2500 (Jazz), +5000 (bwin), +4000 (Intertops), +3300 (Bet365).
Don’t you see some similarities with Lamar Jackson here? I’m not claiming Josh Allen will have a season comparable to Lamar’s 2019 performance; I’m just saying both guys are in a similar condition.
The Bills have a top 5 defense, while the Ravens also had a top 5 defense last year. Both Lamar and Josh can do damage with their legs. Both play in a run-oriented offense. And yet, Lamar did win the MVP honors last year.
I can envision a scenario where Buffalo ends with a 12-4 or even a 13-3 record this year. If that happens, a Bills player is likely to be the recipient of the MVP award, and the most likely player is always the QB.
The Bills have a stout defense, and their offense is likely to take a big step.
First, the team acquired Stefon Diggs, a game-breaker on offense. Secondly, they have many young budding stars on offense who have a shot at making a leap in 2020: Josh Allen, Devin Singletary and Dawson Knox. Also, the reports in camp are very optimistic regarding rookie running back Zack Moss.
Most sportsbooks have odds on Allen between +3000 and +4000. I’ll take my chances at +6000 with DraftKings.
In order for a player to make my list, he had to meet two conditions:
• Condition #1: There has to be one online sportsbook whose line on this specific player is significantly higher than other bookies.
• Condition #2: I believe the player in question does hold a reasonable chance of becoming the 2020 MVP.
Before we dive into the candidates, here is a vital statistic to be aware of:
Over the past 30 years, the MVP award was won by:
24 quarterbacks (80%) and 6 running backs (20%).
Keep that in mind when making your pick.
POTENTIAL MVP #1: Russell Wilson, QB, SEA
Best odds: +1400 at BetOnline.ag (i.e. 15.0 in decimal format)
Other online bookies: +580 (Pinnacle), +800 (William Hill), +800 (DraftKings), +700 (FanDuel), +700 (10Bet), +1000 (Jazz), +600 (bwin), +600 (Intertops), +650 (Bet365).
If not for Lamar Jackson’s heroics, Wilson would have won the MVP title in 2019. As a matter of fact, ProFootballFocus named him the MVP last year. He was spectacular with a 66% completion rate, a 31-to-5 TD-to-INT ratio, 4,100 passing yards and 342 more on the ground (while adding 3 rushing TDs).
His TD-to-INT ratio has been extraordinary, especially over the past three seasons. In this time frame, he has thrown 100 touchdowns while getting intercepted just 23 times. Compare that to Jameis Winston who had 30 picks last year alone!
Wilson has a couple of good wideouts to throw to: Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. The latter took huge leap towards the end of his rookie season, including 160 receiving yards in a playoff game.
At tight end, Will Dissly will be back after playing just six games last year. The organization also signed veteran Greg Olsen. I know, I know, he must be close to 75 years old, but he still caught 52 passes from awful QBs in Carolina last season.
At the running back position, the team still has Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny. That being said, Penny will probably miss the first six games, but Seattle grabbed Carlos Hyde. Don’t forget he racked up over 1,000 yards on the ground last year with the Texans.
As you can see above, the vast majority of sportsbook have posted odds between +600 and +800 on Wilson to win the MVP title. At +1400, we are getting a bargain, especially considering the quality of the player.
POTENTIAL MVP #2: Matthew Stafford, QB, DET
Best odds: +6600 at William Hill (i.e. 67.0 in decimal format)
Other online bookies: +2584 (Pinnacle), +4000 (DraftKings), +4400 (FanDuel), +2500 (BetOnline), +4800 (10Bet), +5000 (Jazz), +5000 (bwin), +5000 (Intertops), +5000 (Bet365).
This guy is underrated because he plays for a small-market team who has been in the bottom of the standings for a long time. But don’t sleep on him.
He’s been very consistent over the years. Over the past five seasons, he has thrown 125 TD passes versus 49 interceptions. His completion rate hovers around 65% every year.
Last year, he was quietly on pace for 38 TDs, 10 picks and 5,000 passing yards! However, he got hurt and missed the second half of the season. It was the first time he missed a game in eight years, which shows how durable he is.
He has a solid trio of WRs with Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola. Golladay is another very underrated NFL player, in my opinion. Did you know he scored 11 TDS and amassed close to 1,200 receiving yards, despite catching balls from David Blough and Jeff Driskell for half the season?
Rookie tight ends tend to struggle, and that’s what happened to T.J. Hockenson. The former #8 overall pick from the 2019 draft is ready to burst onto the scene.
At running back, Kerryon Johnson was already a good option to have on your squad, but the team drafted D’Andre Swift out of Georgia. That will be a very nice duo in the backfield.
The odds on Stafford to be the 2019 MVP vary between +2500 and +5000. I trust Pinnacle’s line accuracy a lot, and their odds on Stafford are +2584. Thefore, grabbing +6600 at William Hill sounds like a wise choice.
POTENTIAL MVP #3: Josh Allen, QB, BUF
Best odds: +6000 at DraftKings (i.e. 61.0 in decimal format)
Other online bookies: +2939 (Pinnacle), +4000 (William Hill), +3800 (FanDuel), +2000 (BetOnline), +5000 (10Bet), +2500 (Jazz), +5000 (bwin), +4000 (Intertops), +3300 (Bet365).
Don’t you see some similarities with Lamar Jackson here? I’m not claiming Josh Allen will have a season comparable to Lamar’s 2019 performance; I’m just saying both guys are in a similar condition.
The Bills have a top 5 defense, while the Ravens also had a top 5 defense last year. Both Lamar and Josh can do damage with their legs. Both play in a run-oriented offense. And yet, Lamar did win the MVP honors last year.
I can envision a scenario where Buffalo ends with a 12-4 or even a 13-3 record this year. If that happens, a Bills player is likely to be the recipient of the MVP award, and the most likely player is always the QB.
The Bills have a stout defense, and their offense is likely to take a big step.
First, the team acquired Stefon Diggs, a game-breaker on offense. Secondly, they have many young budding stars on offense who have a shot at making a leap in 2020: Josh Allen, Devin Singletary and Dawson Knox. Also, the reports in camp are very optimistic regarding rookie running back Zack Moss.
Most sportsbooks have odds on Allen between +3000 and +4000. I’ll take my chances at +6000 with DraftKings.