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NBA Trade Recap and Betting Advice

linesniper

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Happy Friday, Sports Bettors! The NBA trade deadline is closed and we have all the information for you today on how to profit!​

With that being said, here's a preview of what a typical report looks like:​

  • NBA news and analysis​

  • NBA Trade Deadline Analysis​

  • Look ahead to today's NBA​

Let's jump right in...​

NBA News and Analysis​

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Knicks overcome 15 point 1st half deficit, defeat Wizards 106-102

Fueled by a big bench run in the 4th quarter led by Alec Burks (27 points) and Immanuel Quickley (16 points), the Knicks thoroughly dominated the 4th quarter outsourcing the Wizards 39-24. The win low key vaulted the Knicks into the 5th seed position in the East, and while Julius Randle wasn't exactly great (13 points, 9 rebounds), he is in my estimation the front runner to win the Most Improved Player award (available at -112 on DraftKings), just as long as the Knicks continue to stay in playoff contention.

Kings blow out Warriors 141-119

De'Aaron Fox went off for 44 points in a game where both Steph Curry and Draymond Green (illness) didn't touch the court, and the Kings did a good job of simply playing their best players and shooting 50% from 3 point range didn't hurt their cause either. I wrote in yesterday's newsletter that I think betting on the Warriors not to make the playoffs at -120 is a good bet, and they did nothing at the trade deadline to change my opinion.

NBA Trade Deadline Analysis​

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The Miami Heat acquired Victor Oladipo from the Houston Rockets in exchange for Kelly Olynyk and Avery Bradley, which is essentially nothing in NBA terms. Oladipo is a very solid player that can give them 28-32 32 minutes a game at either the shooting guard or small forward position, and neither Olynyk nor Bradley will be much of a loss for them, as Bradley was already out of the rotation and they can use a committee approach at power forward with a variety of options in Andre Iguodala, Precious Achiuwa and Trevor Ariza.

The Rockets made a poor trade here outside of the fact that Olynyk and Bradley have very favorable expiring contracts, it seems clear that they're just trying to tank and I wouldn't be surprised if they shut down John Wall soon.

The Denver Nuggets essentially acquired Aaron Gordon from the Orlando Magic for Gary Harris, R.J. Hampton and a protected first. Gordon will lose a bit of value in terms of production in the stat sheet, but this is a very solid move to shore up Denver's rotation and they now have a good deal of flexibility and insurance in their front court in case something goes wrong.

The Chicago Bulls acquired star center Nikola Vucevic and Al-Farouq Aminu from the Orlando Magic in exchange for Wendell Carter Jr, Otto Porter and two protected first round picks. The Bulls currently sit as the 10th seed in the East so it's clear they're going all out to make the playoffs. I think this move gives them a legitimately good shot at doing so, and if you have any way to bet on them to make the playoffs at a reasonable price, I would look into it.

The Boston Celtics essentially acquired Evan Fournier from the Orlando Magic and gave up Daniel Theis to the Bulls as well as Jeff Teague and 2 second round picks to the Magic. I see this as sort of a slightly strange move, as the Celtics have plenty of guards but are a bit thin in the front court. I expect to see Robert Williams (correctly) starting at center for the Celtics going forward, as he's been really good, with Fournier coming off the bench and having a much lesser role than he did in Orlando. I quietly think this is a good move for the Celtics, just as long as they're willing to play Robert Williams significant minutes.​

Look ahead to today's NBA​

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Bucks -6 vs Celtics

This is the same line as it was a couple of days ago, and the Bucks would have covered easily if not for a late game meltdown. The Celtics will be without Daniel Theis and most likely won't have Evan Fournier available, so they're a bit worse of a team than they were the last game they played. The Bucks are presumably going to be fully healthy and are on paper the 2nd best team in the NBA, compared to the Celtics who are barely holding on for the 8th seed in the East. I don't understand it, but I think the value is on the Bucks here for sure.

Mavericks -4.5 vs Pacers

Over their past 10 games, the Mavs have been playing basically top 3 basketball on paper, while the Pacers have been a middle of the pack team. Normally I'm not real big into getting giddy over relatively small sample sizes, but the Mavs started the season as legitimate contenders, and this might be a case of them finally starting to realize the potential that the market saw in them prior to the season.

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Enjoy today's games and, as always...

Here's to making smarter, more profitable bets,

- RD

Red Dave
Analyst, Line Sniper

 
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