Date: 2009-10-31
Sport: Basketball
Match / Event: NBA (Minnesota - Cleveland)
Market: Under/Over
Pick: Under 191.5 points
Odds: 1.95
Stake: 6
Bookie: Pinnacle
Analyze: This is very simple actually. Cleveland allowed 95 points from Boston and 101 points from Toronto and the games still ended Under against Boston and Toronto (the game in Toronto was Over to some due to the line going down, but even that was only due to a meaningless basket and one from Calderon in the last seconds). What more both games had in common? Boston and Toronto both shot at least 50 points in one of the halves (both in first half actually). I just can’t see Wolves scoring 90 points here. I believe they will score between 80 and 85 points and if so, unless Cleveland will score 105 - 110 points, our bet is safe. Wolves had difficult time scoring against the Nets, mediocre defense team at best, so against Cleveland it should be twice as hard. Can’t say this is the strongest bet, but no doubt it got some decent value
Date: 2009-10-31
Sport: Basketball
Match / Event: NBA (Philadelphia - Milwaukee)
Market: Asian Handicap
Pick: Sixers -6.5
Odds: 1.95
Stake: 7
Bookie: Pinnacle
Analyze: Sixers to win and cover the line is my first bet. I agree that Sixers still need to prove themselves. Brand trade didn’t work as they hoped, Miller is gone and they have a great coach, but a new one with tough offense system to adjust. Bucks haven’t played a game yet, so they a bit of a mystery, but a team that given three out of their five best players for free (Charlie V, Jefferson and Sessions) and didn’t bring anyone worth mentioning, doesn’t signal that they want to such things as win games or even being a really rival. At home we will see Redd goes off from time to time (I can’t see what motivation he can have playing for such a franchise), but on a road against playoff teams? It’s a good bet to fade them, unless it’s double digits line
Date: 2009-10-31
Sport: Basketball
Match / Event: NBA (Detroit - Oklahoma)
Market: Under/Over
Pick: Over 191 points
Odds: 1.98
Stake: 6
Bookie: Pinnacle
Analyze: Both teams should have a lot of Over results this year and both went Under in their first game of the season. Both games were very different though. If anyone would have told me that at HT, when the score was 68 - 51 (119 points) that the final score will be Under 204 points, I wouldn’t believe. If anyone would have told that the score will be Under 204 by more than 10 points, I would have placed a lot of money that he is wrong. 72 points were scored in the second half and that is due to garbage time. Detroit’s game in Memphis was going towards Under the whole game mainly due to Memphis being unable to score. Detroit scored more or less their number of points 96 and if Memphis would have scored more, I believe Detroit would have did a better job as well and would have reached 100 points. Tonight I believe that at least one team will do the job and reach 100 points. Maybe even both. Both teams have offensive minded coach, both teams have stars preferring to run (Detroit is a team, but at least Gordon and Charlie V don’t know the words defense or slow pace, while Rip and Prince can play both styles, preferring the slower pace a bit). 105 - 95 to Detroit is my predicted score and I prefer the Total here.
Date: 2009-10-31
Sport: Basketball
Match / Event: NBA (Indiana - Miami
Market: Asian Handicap
Pick: Indiana -1.5
Odds: 1.97
Stake: 5
Bookie: Pinnacle
Analyze: Indiana are a solid home team I believe that gave a decent performance at Atlanta and with the money flowing Heat’s way, it’s too good of a bet to turn away from. I see it similar to Minnesota’s game. I agree that Heat can win it, but no way should it be as almost 50 - 50 chance. Granger is healthy (or almost), Hibbert and Rush should continue to improve on their sophomore year and I’m sorry, Heat’s win over the Knicks doesn’t impress me too much. I mean, we are talking about the Knicks. On top of Indiana being a great home team (beat the Celtics, Lakers and many others at home last year), the series between the team always been about home court with the home side winning 9 of the 10 last meetings (Pacers grabbing the only home win). Heat also home oriented team and I believe that bookies don’t make the right adjustments here. I would give -4 to Pacers at home and -7 to Heat at home (11 points difference). O’Neal can make the difference here, so I will take this one carefully
Date: 2009-10-31
Sport: Basketball
Match / Event: NBA (Boston - Chicago)
Market: Asian Handicap
Pick: Boston -11
Odds: 1.9
Stake: 8
Bookie: Bet365
Analyze: Boston -11 is the play here. Was so hoping it will be 10 points only, but I need to play the hand I was dealt and it’s not too bad either. Rose played a lot of minutes last night despite being injured; Bulls come of a huge win and Boston just want to beat anyone in sight. Was watching Bulls killing my Spurs bet and besides poor shooting night from three pointers, Bulls won due to having tons of points of second chances due to good offensive rebounding. Boston won’t allow that. Perkins and KG will take care of the boards, the rest of the Celtics will take care of the line. Boston will win by 15+ points
Sport: Basketball
Match / Event: NBA (Minnesota - Cleveland)
Market: Under/Over
Pick: Under 191.5 points
Odds: 1.95
Stake: 6
Bookie: Pinnacle
Analyze: This is very simple actually. Cleveland allowed 95 points from Boston and 101 points from Toronto and the games still ended Under against Boston and Toronto (the game in Toronto was Over to some due to the line going down, but even that was only due to a meaningless basket and one from Calderon in the last seconds). What more both games had in common? Boston and Toronto both shot at least 50 points in one of the halves (both in first half actually). I just can’t see Wolves scoring 90 points here. I believe they will score between 80 and 85 points and if so, unless Cleveland will score 105 - 110 points, our bet is safe. Wolves had difficult time scoring against the Nets, mediocre defense team at best, so against Cleveland it should be twice as hard. Can’t say this is the strongest bet, but no doubt it got some decent value
Date: 2009-10-31
Sport: Basketball
Match / Event: NBA (Philadelphia - Milwaukee)
Market: Asian Handicap
Pick: Sixers -6.5
Odds: 1.95
Stake: 7
Bookie: Pinnacle
Analyze: Sixers to win and cover the line is my first bet. I agree that Sixers still need to prove themselves. Brand trade didn’t work as they hoped, Miller is gone and they have a great coach, but a new one with tough offense system to adjust. Bucks haven’t played a game yet, so they a bit of a mystery, but a team that given three out of their five best players for free (Charlie V, Jefferson and Sessions) and didn’t bring anyone worth mentioning, doesn’t signal that they want to such things as win games or even being a really rival. At home we will see Redd goes off from time to time (I can’t see what motivation he can have playing for such a franchise), but on a road against playoff teams? It’s a good bet to fade them, unless it’s double digits line
Date: 2009-10-31
Sport: Basketball
Match / Event: NBA (Detroit - Oklahoma)
Market: Under/Over
Pick: Over 191 points
Odds: 1.98
Stake: 6
Bookie: Pinnacle
Analyze: Both teams should have a lot of Over results this year and both went Under in their first game of the season. Both games were very different though. If anyone would have told me that at HT, when the score was 68 - 51 (119 points) that the final score will be Under 204 points, I wouldn’t believe. If anyone would have told that the score will be Under 204 by more than 10 points, I would have placed a lot of money that he is wrong. 72 points were scored in the second half and that is due to garbage time. Detroit’s game in Memphis was going towards Under the whole game mainly due to Memphis being unable to score. Detroit scored more or less their number of points 96 and if Memphis would have scored more, I believe Detroit would have did a better job as well and would have reached 100 points. Tonight I believe that at least one team will do the job and reach 100 points. Maybe even both. Both teams have offensive minded coach, both teams have stars preferring to run (Detroit is a team, but at least Gordon and Charlie V don’t know the words defense or slow pace, while Rip and Prince can play both styles, preferring the slower pace a bit). 105 - 95 to Detroit is my predicted score and I prefer the Total here.
Date: 2009-10-31
Sport: Basketball
Match / Event: NBA (Indiana - Miami
Market: Asian Handicap
Pick: Indiana -1.5
Odds: 1.97
Stake: 5
Bookie: Pinnacle
Analyze: Indiana are a solid home team I believe that gave a decent performance at Atlanta and with the money flowing Heat’s way, it’s too good of a bet to turn away from. I see it similar to Minnesota’s game. I agree that Heat can win it, but no way should it be as almost 50 - 50 chance. Granger is healthy (or almost), Hibbert and Rush should continue to improve on their sophomore year and I’m sorry, Heat’s win over the Knicks doesn’t impress me too much. I mean, we are talking about the Knicks. On top of Indiana being a great home team (beat the Celtics, Lakers and many others at home last year), the series between the team always been about home court with the home side winning 9 of the 10 last meetings (Pacers grabbing the only home win). Heat also home oriented team and I believe that bookies don’t make the right adjustments here. I would give -4 to Pacers at home and -7 to Heat at home (11 points difference). O’Neal can make the difference here, so I will take this one carefully
Date: 2009-10-31
Sport: Basketball
Match / Event: NBA (Boston - Chicago)
Market: Asian Handicap
Pick: Boston -11
Odds: 1.9
Stake: 8
Bookie: Bet365
Analyze: Boston -11 is the play here. Was so hoping it will be 10 points only, but I need to play the hand I was dealt and it’s not too bad either. Rose played a lot of minutes last night despite being injured; Bulls come of a huge win and Boston just want to beat anyone in sight. Was watching Bulls killing my Spurs bet and besides poor shooting night from three pointers, Bulls won due to having tons of points of second chances due to good offensive rebounding. Boston won’t allow that. Perkins and KG will take care of the boards, the rest of the Celtics will take care of the line. Boston will win by 15+ points
