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My low risk betting strategy (Plan A)

bowser

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Hallo guys. I'm new in this forum and I would like to share with you my betting strategies.
My first betting strategy is based on 2 games with teams that are at least 60% possible to win the game, @1,40-1,70 odds.

Example Betting Plan A - matches:
Accrington Stanley - Crewe Alexandra Home win @1,62
Bayer Leverkusen - VfB Stuttgart Home win @1,42
Cover for Accrington draw @3,80 (I get my money back)

I will share with you plan B at a new thread.

I've won more than 70% times, and sometimes, I got my money back with the cover.
I want your thoughts about my strategy.

-John-
 

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    Plan A.png
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BgFutbol

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I am confused. Can you explain further what are the steps of your strategy?
 

bowser

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I am confused. Can you explain further what are the steps of your strategy?
Yes, it's quite simple. As you see on the attachment, I bet on:
1. Accrington Stanley - Crewe Alexandra Home win @1,62
2. Bayer Leverkusen - VfB Stuttgart Home win @1,42
Total Odd 1,42 x 1,62 = 2,30
Stake 20€ x 2,30 = 46,01€ total return


Cover for Accrington draw @3,80
Stake 7,15€ x 3,80 = 27,17€ total return
Accrington & Bayer, both teams won yesterday, so I got back 46,01€. The net profit is 46,01€ - 20€ - 7,15€ = 18,86€ in my pocket.

If Accrington & Crew had a draw result, I would get back 27,17€, that is the total stake (20€ + 7,15€).
I made this excel sheet to help me calculate the stakes very quickly - I can upload it if you wish.
 

BgFutbol

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I made this excel sheet to help me calculate the stakes very quickly - I can upload it if you wish.
Yeah, if it's not a problem.
 

RayanM

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So no cover for Bayer. Are you playing them as absolutely sure that they will win?
Also won't you achieve the same result easier at betting exchange such as Betfair by simply Backing and Laying?

Back betting means putting your money on something to happen - a horse or a team or a player to win, for instance. Lay betting means betting on something not to happen.
 

bowser

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So no cover for Bayer. Are you playing them as absolutely sure that they will win?
Also won't you achieve the same result easier at betting exchange such as Betfair by simply Backing and Laying?
Yes, no cover for Bayer. Only for Accrington - Only for the one of the two matches.
Betfair is not available in my country (Greece) - I haven't this option.
 
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bowser

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Yeah, if it's not a problem.
I just try to set a stake for the cover that only returns to me the total stake - I just get my money back.
But the point is that I bet on low risk games and teams that are able to win.

I have a similar Plan (B) with HT/FT.
 

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RayanM

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Yes, no cover for Bayer. Only for Accrington - Only for the one of the two matches.
Betfair is not available in my country (Greece).
I see, what sportsbook do you use then?
There are sportsbooks that have bets like this - Draw No bet. This is your cover, in case of a draw your stake is pushed back to your account.
I believe bet365 has Draw no Bet options.

The reason why I am suggesting you Draw no Bet instead of covering like what you do is, that your potential winnings will be higher. by betting on too many selections you enter too much in the spiral of the bookie advantage. All of the odds at a bookmaker are not in our favor, for example,
if a bookie sets the odds at a 2-way event, option A @1.90, option B @1.91. You can clearly see what I mean. By choosing only 1 bet you minimize this loss.
 

bowser

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I see, what sportsbook do you use then?
There are sportsbooks that have bets like this - Draw No bet. This is your cover, in case of a draw your stake is pushed back to your account.
I believe bet365 has Draw no Bet options.

The reason why I am suggesting you Draw no Bet instead of covering like what you do is, that your potential winnings will be higher. by betting on too many selections you enter too much in the spiral of the bookie advantage.
Bet346 and many others.

Yes, DNB is available here, of course, but this is like a double chance and if you bet on "easy" matches as mentioned above, you get law odds.
For example, today we have Tottenham @1,70 (DNB @1,14) and Union Saint-Gilloise @1,42 (DNB @1,26). If you bet on the two games for DNB, you will get back about the 1/2 net profit, in case both teams win!!

With my system betting on Tottenham @1,70 & Union Saint-Gilloise @1,42 and if both win, I will get back net profit 16,90€ (total stake 21,72€).
With DNB system betting on Tottenham @1,14 & Union Saint-Gilloise @1,26 and if both win, I will get back net profit 9,48€ (total stake 21,72€).

DNB don't work in my case.
 

qpLucas

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I always love to read about other's strategies, thanks for sharing @bowser :cool:

Need to say Accrington losing the match would make a painful loss of €27,15 so I'm not sure if there is value making these combinations🤔 Also Leverkusen not winning the match and Accrington not drawing is the same scenario...
 

bowser

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I always love to read about other's strategies, thanks for sharing @bowser :cool:

Need to say Accrington losing the match would make a painful loss of €27,15 so I'm not sure if there is value making these combinations🤔 Also Leverkusen not winning the match and Accrington not drawing is the same scenario...
Those are examples.
There is always a risk, at everything!
 

qpLucas

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Those are examples.
There is always a risk, at everything!

Yes, I'm not hating your strategy, just mentioning it seems to me that it doesn't create the value - if you go with favourites you get low odds, if you go with value bets, the risk is high, and there is still possibility of both bets losing so none of the bets cover the other one.

Of course I wish you good luck mate! 💰 curious about plan B
 

bowser

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Yes, I'm not hating your strategy, just mentioning it seems to me that it doesn't create the value - if you go with favourites you get low odds, if you go with value bets, the risk is high, and there is still possibility of both bets losing so none of the bets cover the other one.

Of course I wish you good luck mate! 💰 curious about plan B
 

mayertom

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Risk/reward ratio not worth it. In most cases you are winning as a profit lower that you overall stake. But your potential loss is too high. Your overall bet is 27E and profit is 18E. This may be good option for higher odds, maybe over @2.80.
 

bowser

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Risk/reward ratio not worth it. In most cases you are winning as a profit lower that you overall stake. But your potential loss is too high. Your overall bet is 27E and profit is 18E. This may be good option for higher odds, maybe over @2.80.
2.80? From your own experience, isn't it more difficult to predict?
 

mayertom

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2.80? From your own experience, isn't it more difficult to predict?
It's not that hard to predict 2.80 or higher odds. And in other hand i prefer to lose money from higher odds than small- somthing like 1.40. It's hurt less. :D
 

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2.80? From your own experience, isn't it more difficult to predict?
I've hit odds of 100. Of course, it does not happen often as the odds suggest. It was in live betting. Hitting odds around 3.0 is more profitable than betting on favorites, at least from my side. When I bet on favorites I do not win in the long run. Especially if the favorite is Man Utd :)
 

bowser

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I've hit odds of 100. Of course, it does not happen often as the odds suggest. It was in live betting. Hitting odds around 3.0 is more profitable than betting on favorites, at least from my side. When I bet on favorites I do not win in the long run. Especially if the favorite is Man Utd :)
Man Utd and ROMA in black list :p
 
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