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====> WOLVES VS TOTTENHAM
Date: 15th December 2019 at 15:00
BET ON: Over / Under - Over +2.50
Odd: 1.83 (SBOBET)
- 3 games on tonight from the Prem and this is my pick of the lot. In the 5 games under Mourinho, over 2.5 goals has it in every game. In 8 games away this season, Spurs are yet to keep a clean sheet whilst over 2.5 Goals has occurred 7 times. This is mostly due to their leaky defense, as on average they concede 2.0 goal per game (in comparison to the 1.38 goals they score per game).
- Wolves are on an unbeaten run of 9 games in all competitions. This is why we cannot back spurs to win this match. However, Wolves have the same problem of always conceding 1 goal a match against teams they shouldn't. With BTTS hitting 6 out of 8 home games this season. So against good quality opponents, we expect this number of goals to increase drastically. Wolves do have a decent amount of firepower upfront as well - averaging 1.5 goals a game.
- Here we have two teams that both have fluid and aggressive playing styles that don't seem to have the defensive co-ordination necessary to maintain clean sheets in the prem. This will obviously lend itself well to backing goals in a match.
====> CRYSTAL PALACE VS BRIGHTON (DAILY SURE BET)
Date: 16th December 2019 at 20:45
BET ON: Asian handicap - CRYSTAL PALACE +0.00
Odd: 1.89 (SBOBET)
- Here we've got an interesting Monday night fixture. Two defensive powerhouses, pitted against each other. As such, home advantage will clearly add to the strength of Palace this match-day. They haven't been beaten in three games now and their sole three losses in front of the home crowd this campaign had come against Leicester, Manchester City, and Liverpool.
- Furthermore, Palace have only lost to top 4 contending sides this campaign (Manchester City, Chelsea, Leicester, Liverpool, and Tottenham), bar their away loss to Sheffield.
- On the other hand, Brighton were winless in four of their last five games, and lost three of these as well. With their sole win coming against a struggling Arsenal side. Restraint enough, Brighton have only one once in 14 years at Sedhurst park (Palace's home), this match-up is likely to see this drought continue.
- Brighton just don't have an enigma like Palace's Zaha, they are a very readable team that do very predictable things. No fault to the manager, but the players know exactly what they are in the side to do and rarely stray from this. You could argue either Gross or Maupay is similar to Zaha, but we just can't see how Brighton snatch this win.
- Palace have held 4 clean sheets from 8 at home and we expect that this will be bumped to 5 from 9.
====> MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES VS MIAMI HEAT
Date: 17th December 2019 at 02:00
BET ON: Asian handicap - MIAMI HEAT -4.50
Odd: 1.89 (SBOBET)
- At this point in the season, we’re no longer surprised by what the Heat (19-7) have accomplished. The team currently boasts the second best record in the Eastern Conference, the third best record in the league and has won seven of its last nine. Miami ranks seventh in points per 100 possessions (111.1), third in effective field-goal percentage (54.9%), ninth in points allowed per 100 possessions (106.3) and 13th in opponent’s effective field-goal percentage (51.3%)
- Conversely, the Grizzlies (9-17) have struggled to find their identity. The team has lost 10 of its last 14 games and prior to Saturday, hadn’t won a home game since November 15th. Memphis ranks 24th in points per 100 possessions (106), 21st in effective field-goal percentage (52%), 21st in points allowed per 100 possessions (111.6) and 19th in opponent’s effective field-goal percentage (53.2%).
As always, let’s dig deeper.
- Since guard Ja Morant (18.7 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 6.4 APG) returned to the lineup on Monday, the Grizzlies have won three of four and looked especially impressive in Saturday’s 128-111 victory against the Washington Wizards. The team was dominant on all fronts, averaging 124 points per 100 possessions (89th percentile) with an effective field-goal percentage of 64.9% (96th percentile) while limiting the Wizards to 98 points per 100 possessions (83rd) percentile) with an effective field-goal percentage of 48.1% (75th percentile).
- Although I’ll concede the performance was impressive, it seems to be more of an anomaly rather than a sign of things to come. Prior to Saturday, Memphis hadn’t ranked in the 56th percentile or above in 14 consecutive games. It’s unlikely the team will be able to continue Saturday’s impressive offensive showing against a Heat team that has ranked in the 55th percentile or higher in points allowed per 100 possessions against all but one of their 15 contests against sub-.500 opponents.
- As far as trends go, Miami tops the league at 17-8-1 ATS and is 3-1 ATS as a road favorite. The team is also an impressive 14-1 (13-2 ATS) against sub-.500 teams and has won 13 in a row against such opponents. Conversely, Memphis ranks sixth worst at 11-15 ATS and is 5-8 as a home underdog. The team is also 1-12 (3-10 ATS) against teams above .500 and has lost eight in a row against such opponents.
====> BASKONIA VS REAL MADRID (DAILY SURE BET)
Date: 19th December 2019 at 21:00
BET ON: Money line - REAL MADRID
Odd: 1.45 (SBOBET)
- Real Madrid has won 9 of their last 10 games in all competitions and are in excellent form. They have averaged 91 points in their last 10 games while Baskonia have averaged 78 points in their last 10 games.
- Baskonia were just humiliated away from home by Valencia 2 days ago in their last Euroleague outing, a game in which Valencia lead pretty much the whole time and ended up winning by 28 points. Baskonia let them put up 105 points on the board which is 20 more than Valencia were averaging coming into that game.
- Real Madrid had their last Euroleague game on the 17th as well and they beat Olimpia Milano at home by 9 points, holding them to 67 points in the process although Milano came into that game averaging 77 points per game in their last 10.
- Real Madrid boasts a basket difference of +102 in the Euroleague while Baskonia has a basket difference of -46. Real clearly have the better players and are in better form, the only advantage Baskonia has here is the Fernando Buesa Arena and the home fans but that has not been enough for them 5 out of the last 6 times Real have travelled there.
====> TOTTENHAM VS CHELSEA
Date: 22th December 2019 at 17:30
BET ON: Asian handicap - TOTTENHAM +0.00
Odd: 1.74 (SBOBET)
- Tottenham and Chelsea are currently on opposite trajectories in terms of form. The home team has been rejuvenated by the introduction of Mourinho and have won all 3 of their home games since his arrival, Chelsea on the other hand has lost 4 of their last 5 away games in the Premier League. The last time Tottenham lost at home was 4 months ago. If they beat Chelsea they will overtake them and catapult themselves from 6th to 4th in the Premier League table, finishing in the top 4 is obviously a huge season objective for them.
- Mourinho has also never lost against a team that he has coached before and I fully expect him to get the better of Lampard here tactically. Dele Alli, in particular, loves playing against Chelsea and has scored 5 goals in the last 7 games against them. Since the arrival of Mourinho he has scored 4 goals in 6 games and we wouldn't be surprised at all to see him get on the scoresheet again in this highly anticipated London derby.