- Jul 11, 2008
- Reaction score
The ultimate question in horse racing is how do you pick a winner?
Unfortunately, there is no simple answer to that question but there are some factors to take into consideration that are often overlooked by amateur bettors that can greatly increase your chances of your horse landing you a winning bet.
There are many websites and tipsters online that provide horse racing tips today and for the days ahead. Many of these are worth following as the tips often come from reputable individuals in the industry who have a wealth of knowledge and experience. However, it’s often best to also consider your own opinion when deciding on which horses to back and these following tips should help you with that.
The surface that the horses run on are a huge factor in horses running well. Some horses run better on dry ground, which is also referred to as firm or good to firm, while others perform better on softer surfaces.
Be sure to analyse the form of the horses taking part in a race and what the conditions of the ground were in their previous races. If they had a string of wins on firm ground followed by finishing out of place positions on soft ground, they may be worth backing if the ground is dry in the upcoming race.
As well as analysing the horse and it’s past form, it’s important to take into consideration who the horses trainer is. Some trainers have excellent records at certain tracks and if they have won previous at the course with other horses, they’ll have a good understanding of how to do so again.
Although this information may not be displayed on the bookmaker website, you should be able to find statistics of trainers at certain tracks online relatively easily.
Similar to trainers having their favourite tracks, jockeys also perform better on certain courses.
If you find a horse that is suited to the course and ground, who has a trainer that has a good record at the track and who is paired with a jockey with a proven track record, you could be onto a winner.
Favourites Don’t Always Win
When looking at the odds of the horses in a race, it may seem like the favourite has every chance of winning. Although that may be true, horse racing is very unpredictable and the favourite only wins around 30% of the time on average.
A better long-term strategy is to determine which prices have value. Even if a horse is priced at 10/1 and the favourite 2/1, if you believe the 10/1 shot should be priced closer to 5/1, that would be the better bet as backing it would return more profit over time.