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With these new rules in COVID football, the old methods don't work. I decided to try the probability estimation with the use of timings. There is a value there. The priority of the strategy is the efficiency and security of investments.
STAT: Profit +25.8%, ROI +17.4%, Picks 74 (52)
STAT: Profit +13.54%, ROI +22.57%, Picks 30
STAT: picks 267, profit +9.1%, roi +3.4%
STAT: picks 89, profit +11.49%, roi +12.91%
Caught a powerful downstreak in the following markets: South Korea: K League 1, Russia FNL, Japan J1 League.
What is the reason?
1. These markets are not the main markets, since most of them are smallmarkets, that is, markets with low liquidity. The problem with such markets is that any more or less significant bet from a particular bookmaker can swing the situation quite strongly in one direction or another and affect the world market, and it is quite difficult to understand whether this is the so-called smart money or the work of robots. That's why low-liquid markets are always an attempt to catch fish in muddy water. However, the reward may also be good. But it is necessary to work on it, and I will do it, but not this season and not in the priority mode. In the meantime, such markets are in the stop list.
2. There were too many draw results at a short distance (variance outlier), and this is also one of the weaknesses of my software. When you play the AH and 1X2 markets, this happens. I practically do not use so-called insurance, because this reduces the overall efficiency and it is not this that matters at a distance, but the correct analysis of the markets. Let's just say that if the software is effective, then there is no need to slow down, there is simply no point in these actions. What gives a result gives a result. And what does not give a result, with that, and it makes no sense to be wise and insured.
3. As you understand, an important point for my software is the liquidity in the market. It does not have to be high or very high, but it must be sufficient to make effective decisions. But if the market has worked, roughly speaking, one and a half diggers, one of whom is a ludomaniac, and the other is his friend, such a market is impossible to understand where and what is moving there. And even very expensive and advanced software will not cope with this task. That is why bookmakers give low limits on all sorts of garbage leagues and risky markets for them, because they themselves do not know what the match will be and whether it will be fair, there is too little information and a sheepskin dressing is not worth getting into it.
So, the work is going on, nothing terrible has happened.
STAT: picks 474, profit -8.0%, roi -1.7%
STAT: picks 191, profit +11.16%, roi +5.84%
I ventured to try a few other software settings and it didn't work out very well. But it is even better, in the sense that it has collected more information about the market from a different angle. If I didn't, there would be some doubts.
The software analyzes financial information. Statistical information is irrelevant. A team can play as well as it likes and still lose, or as badly as it likes, but take out the opponent in one wicket. But most often they play the way they need to (you know), for the optimal result that suits both teams. I don't even try to see modern football as a sport. Therefore, it makes no sense to work with statistical information, it is a waste of time. In the best case, for the effective (effective) processing of statistical information, a lot of financial and time resources are required, the expediency of which remains a big question, and the final result will still be exactly the opposite of what is expected (a goal will be canceled, the referee will put a dubious penalty, there will be a removal, and so on, thousands of sports factors that cannot be mathematically calculated).
Do I want to say that modern football is a game for bookmakers? The question sounds simple. But the question is not quite simple. From the point of view of the financial market, and this is millions and billions of dollars, financial flows have management. There should be no doubt that financial flows are subject to the law of random numbers. Money always has its owner. Big money - big owners. Wolves cannot be shorn by sheep. If anyone thinks that, they're a complete idiot. Of course, this is my point of view, you may not agree with it. But this is my concept, my understanding of this market. In my opinion, only fools can think that analyzing statistical information at a distance they can be in the black. Bookmakers invest a lot of money in advertising just such an attitude to betting, so that fools and ludomaniacs just think that a bookmaker can be beaten on the fact that he is better at understanding football. Only the owner of a football club can understand football better than a bookmaker. And a trader. No one else. Everyone else has just a chance.
I expect a good profit for the coming week. I am confident that my concept and my software is effective.
STAT: picks 519, profit +6.3%, roi +1.2%
after adjusting the software:
STAT: picks 45, profit +14.2%, roi +31.7%
STAT: picks 217, profit +18.09%, roi +8.34%
Only AH & 1X2. The bids are VERIFIED on the monitoring. The details are in my telegram channel.
for free in my telegram channel:
Chelsea - FC Porto 2 4.63
Paris SG - Bayern Munich AH2 -0.75 2.49