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Professional Bettor
Aug 19, 2019
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Who will win the NFC East division during the 2019 NFL regular season?

This sports betting article explores whether you should bet the Eagles, the Cowboys, the Redskins or the Giants to win their division this year.

Which team has odds to win the division that offers value to savvy sports investors like you?

Below are the best odds on each team among Pinnacle, Sports Interaction, Bookmaker, BetOnline, Bet365 and William Hill (as of August 26th, 2019):

EAGLES +100 (Sports Interaction and Bet365)
COWBOYS +210 (BetOnline)
REDSKINS +1830 (Bookmaker)
GIANTS +1850 (Bookmaker)

First of all, let me point out an interesting fact:

If you bet the best possible odds for each of the four teams, you can make a guaranteed profit here!

This is what’s called “Arbitrage Betting”.

Here is how you might want to structure your bets in order to net a surefire profit:

Best odds Risking Potential return
EAGLES +100 $1,000 $2,000
COWBOYS +210 $645.16 $2,000
REDSKINS +1830 $103.63 $2,000
GIANTS +1850 $102.56 $2,000

One of those teams is going to win the AFC East, right? That means you are guaranteed to cash one of those four $2,000 tickets.

How much did you risk overall? The answer: $1,000.00 + $645.16 + $103.63 + $102.56 = $1,851.35.

Conclusion: your 100% guaranteed profit reaches $2,000 - $1,851.35 = $148.65 !!!

This also means at least one of those teams represents a good bet. Which one(s)? Let me answer this vital question.

a) New York Giants outlook

I believe the Giants are as likely to win the division as I am to win the lottery. And I don’t buy lottery tickets. Ever.

This is basically a one-player show with Saquon Barkley. He is awesome and very exciting to watch!

However, Eli Manning is getting old and he looked like he couldn’t throw more than 10 yards down the field last season. He kept dumping short passes, which made the job easier for opposing defensive coordinators.

Add the fact that Odell Beckham was traded and Golden Tate is suspended for the first four games, and you can smell trouble in the Big Apple.

Their defense, which ranked 24th in total yards allowed last season, will field many new starters, which might take time to jell.

Overall, there is not much hope to win the division and I would certainly stay away from the Giants.

b) Washington Redskins outlook

WOW, did you see the difference between Bookmaker’s odds and the other sportsbooks? You can bet Washington to win the division at +1830 with Bookmaker, while the next-best odds are +900.

In other words, that’s as if Bookmaker claims the Skins have one chance out of 19 to win the NFC East, while the others believe it’s more like one chance out of 10. That’s a huge difference.

While I don’t necessarily believe the Redskins will win this division, I believe it could be a smart move to drop a bit of money on them at odds +1830 or higher.

To me, there is no reason to have the Giants and Redskins on the same level. Washington has a much better defense.

The quarterback battle involves three guys: Case Keenum, rookie Dwayne Haskins and Colt McCoy. The latter is hurt for a few weeks, and he just plain sucks.

Keenum is more conservative and has more experience. He should be the week 1 starter. He did pretty well with the Vikings a couple of years ago, but he was mediocre in his other seasons, including last year in Denver where he threw 18 TDs versus 15 interceptions. Haskins will probably get the nod at some point in the season.

One more potential problem: left tackle Trent Williams is still holding out and is telling people he’s prepared to sit out the entire season.

c) Dallas Cowboys outlook

I’m not completely sold on Dak Prescott, nor Amari Cooper. In my opinion, Cooper overachieved after he joined the Cowboys last year. He was spectacular and I don’t think he will replicate that success in 2019. He also has a mysterious foot injury that might impact his play.

And then there’s also the Ezekiel Elliott holdout situation that adds more uncertainty. He wasn’t pleased with some recent comments made by owner Jerry Jones. Even if he signs a deal tomorrow, missing all of training camp and all preseason games isn’t ideal. Timing is important in football and you get that from playing with your teammates.

I like the addition of Randall Cobb though (if he can stay healthy!).

Dallas’ defense finished 7th in terms of yards allowed last season, and it should be solid again.

The Cowboys won 9 games by one possession or less (i.e. 7 points or less). They might not win as many close games this year so I expect a dropoff, especially considering the Elliott issue and Cooper over delivering last year.

d) Philadelphia Eagles outlook

The Eagles posted a 9-7 record last season, but they finished very strong by winning 5 of their past 6 meetings to sneak into the playoffs as a wildcard team. They even won a playoff game at Chicago before being eliminated in New Orleans after grabbing a 14-0 lead. They were really hard to beat down the wire.

Also remember that Philadelphia posted a great 13-3 record the year before. Quarterback Carson Wentz was spectacular that year with a 33 TDs to 7 interceptions ratio. He had a bit of a down year in 2018, but I think there is a non-negligible chance that he goes back to his 2017 form. If he does, watch out! Keep in mind that he was coming back from a reconstructed knee; that probably caused his down year in 2018.

If Wentz stays healthy, this is definitely a top-5 unit. They have a lot of firepower. Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz are all back, and the Eagles added wide receiver DeSean Jackson to fill the big-play role and running back Jordan Howard who had three good seasons in Chicago. Jackson is the perfect complement to Jeffery, who is more of an underneath receiver.

Don’t sleep on rookie running back Miles Sanders. If you haven’t heard from him yet, you will this season. He has looked great in camp and could even grab the number one role.

The defense is very good, too. Fletcher Cox and Malik Jackson are two beasts on the interior of the line.

Final Pick – 2019 NFC East champion

My favorite play here is Philadelphia at +100 odds (2.0 in decimal format). They have a solid and experienced team all-around. I also like their head coach’s aggressiveness. In today’s NFL, if you don’t take chances, you are doomed.

Just stay away from the Giants and the Cowboys. I don’t believe their lines provide any value.

However, taking a gamble on the Redskins at +1830 odds or higher could be a smart decision that might pay off big-time. One more interesting aspect of this bet is that it offers you some protection in case Carson Wentz gets injured and the Eagles come crashing down. If the Eagles don’t win this division, I would be thrilled to have taken a gamble on the Redskins at such astronomic odds!

Best of luck!

Professor MJ